Hurricane Polo tracker: Mexico landfall, forecast path and possible impacts on California and Arizona

Hurricane Polo is a powerful Category 5 storm in the eastern Pacific, off the southwestern coast of Mexico.This handout satellite image obtained from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)/GOES shows Hurricane Polo over the Pacific Ocean near Mexico. (AFP)Polo began as a tropical depression on September 20 and strengthened into a tropical storm the following day. It then intensified at an extraordinary pace, with its winds increasing by about 110 mph in just 24 hours. By September 22, Polo had reached Category 5 strength.According to Tuesday’s advisory from the US National Hurricane Center, Polo is the strongest eastern Pacific storm so far this year. Its maximum sustained winds have reached 165 mph (265 km/h) and could increase to 180 mph overnight.Meteorologist Nick Arman of AccuWeather told Bloomberg, "It is the most intense one we have seen so far this year."Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said current forecasts show Polo remaining offshore, but she urged people along the Pacific coast to stay alert.“At this point, it doesn’t look like it will make landfall; it will simply skirt the coast,” she said after her daily news conference. “People should remain on high alert.”Forecast pathPolo is expected to move northwest and then west-northwest, roughly following the southwestern Mexican coastline while staying offshore.The storm’s core is expected to remain close to the coast for the next few days before moving farther out to sea later in the week.As of Tuesday morning, Polo was located about 345 miles south-southeast of Manzanillo, Mexico. A tropical storm warning is in effect along parts of the coast from Tecpan de Galeana to Punta San Telmo, while a tropical storm watch has been extended westward to Playa Perula.Impacts on MexicoPolo is expected to bring heavy rain to parts of southwestern Mexico, particularly Guerrero and Michoacán, through Thursday.Rainfall of around 3–8 inches is possible in some areas, with isolated totals reaching 8–12 inches.Coastal areas of Oaxaca, Colima and Jalisco could also receive significant rain.Heavy rainfall could cause dangerous flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous areas.Strong waves, large swells and dangerous rip currents are expected along parts of the southwestern coast.Even if Polo remains offshore, strong winds, heavy rain and rough seas could affect coastal communities near the storm’s closest approach.Authorities in some coastal areas have already begun preparations, including port closures, school suspensions and the opening of shelters.Also Read: When will El Nino hit California? Forecast for San Diego, LA and other citiesPossible impacts on the United StatesPolo is not currently expected to make landfall in the United States or cause major direct impacts there. However, some indirect effects are possible, particularly along the Southwest and Southern California coast.Southern CaliforniaBy the weekend, Polo could send large swells toward Southern California, leading to high surf and dangerous rip currents. Increased tropical moisture and humidity are also possible.Arizona and New MexicoSome longer-range forecasts suggest that moisture from Polo could move north into the Southwest next week. If that happens, it could add to existing monsoon moisture and increase rainfall in parts of Arizona and New Mexico.Texas could also see some indirect effects, although that remains a more distant possibility.For now, Polo is expected to remain offshore, but residents along Mexico’s southwestern coast are being urged to closely monitor the storm as its path develops.