HQ PM Newsletter 7/22/2026

Today's Top Free Expert Picks This page may contain affiliate links. If you click and sign up, make a deposit, or place a wager, we may earn a commission at no additional cost to you. Matt Severance #2 128-71-2 in Last 201 MLB Picks MLB NYM @ MIL • Wed 2:10pm Picked: Jul 22 @ 11:52am Analysis No Juan Soto for the Mets is mostly what this is. I'm sure all the NY guys are itching to return home from this six-game trip to open the second half. That's when trades likely begin. Starting pitcher Christian Scott (3-1, 2.87 ERA) has been quite good but doesn't go deep into games. It appears every Brewers regular is in with the team off Thursday. That means the entire excellent bullpen should be ready behind Logan Henderson (3-1, 2.97 ERA). Prop Bet Guy #1 47-22 in Last 69 MLB Player Props Picks MLB ATH @ ARI • Wed 3:40pm M. Kelly Pitcher Strikeouts Picked: Jul 22 @ 10:10am Analysis DraftKings. Merrill Kelly has struggled this season, both overall and in the strikeout department. However, the veteran has acquitted himself better of late (2.12 ERA in three July starts), and has cleared this line in 6/7 home outings. He’ll face an A’s lineup that’s struck out 26.6% of the time over the last 30 days against righties, and has struggled in that department away from home all season. The A’s also have close to a 30% whiff rate against righty changeups this season, which is Kelly’s primary pitch. Eric Cohen #3 18-4 in Last 22 MLB Picks MLB LAD @ PHI • Wed 6:40pm Picked: Jul 22 @ 12:49am Analysis Since Eric Lauer was acquired by the Dodgers in May, Los Angeles has won each of his seven appearances. His 2026 ERA in Toronto was 6.69, which has been more than halved (3.12) in L.A. Meanwhile, Aaron Nola has been awful for the Phillies and it's probably getting time for them to cut bait. Philadelphia has lost 5 of his last 6 starts and the right hander sports a 5.68 ERA this season. I think these trends continue and the Dodgers take the series with a win on Wednesday. Matt Severance #2 128-71-2 in Last 201 MLB Picks PUSH Picked: Jul 22 @ 11:16am Analysis I'm a little spiteful on Unders right now and will bump this up to 9.5, but Bobby Witt Jr. is out again for the Royals. They have totaled nine total runs in the past three without him (he did pinch-hit in one). Jac Caglianone is sitting today, too, so that's a big power source gone. The Giants just aren't a good offensive team, totaling 11 runs in a four-game skid. Royals starter Seth Lugo has a 3.60 home ERA. Winds are blowing in about 9 mph. Angelo Magliocca 6-4 in Last 10 MLB Game Props Picks MLB PIT @ NYY LOSS Picked: Jul 22 @ 9:34am Analysis Mitch Keller's matchup is horrendous today, as he's struggled with left handed batters to the tune of a .283 average and 11 home runs allowed in 63 innings. The WHIP is 1.44 and allowing all those baserunners against a lefty heavy order is likely to yield some runs at some point. Facing what is projecting to be seven left handed hitters in this Yankees order, it will be a major accomplishment for him to pitch well here in a day game in Yankee Stadium vs. this lefty heavy lineup. Yankees F5 TT over 2.5 runs as well.