How's this election different? Disgruntlement, Opportunity and first-termitis

Analysis - Polls leading into the campaign proper, which kicked off this week with Parliament rising and the two major parties holding their campaign launches, have been filled with headlines about "kingmakers".Initially, New Zealand First was given the title, as it has been so many times before. But more recently polls have showed the new kid, Opportunity, holding the balance of power.But if we take the parties at face value, "kingmaker" is a word that no longer makes sense in 2026.The fluidity of previous election campaigns, when parties would often refuse to say who they might work with until the people had spoken, has been replaced with coalition calcification.New Zealand First has ruled out a coalition with Labour and Labour has ruled out a coalition with New Zealand First. And they've done it with vehemence.Winston Peters has posted his party "won't do a deal with Labour" because "the left are full of woke self-confessed communists", while Chris Hipkins has said Labour won't work with New Zealand First because of its "overt racism".Clearly, there's no way back into government for Peters and co without National. The question is whether that changes the way they campaign.As for Opportunity, they are pitching themselves as "kingmakers" and say they're happy to work with National or Labour. They'll talk to the biggest party first, if they make it into Parliament after 7 November.But the current 'king' - Prime Minister Christopher Luxon - isn't having a bar of it. In July he called them a party with an extreme tax policy."We don't want to work with them… they're as centrist as I am an All Black".And in case that left any doubt, he has said since "A vote for the Opportunity Party is a vote to put Chris Hipkins, Te Pāti Māori, and the Greens into government… we were right to rule them out".So, at face value, we don't have any kingmakers in 2026. The lines have been drawn. Everyone has chosen a side.For the first time under MMP we have two blocs - the current coalition or some combination of Labour, the Greens, Opportunity, and Te Pāti Māori. Is this then the most transparent election in MMP history in terms of knowing the shape of the next government?Except… In the Caucus podcast, which began its run through the 2026 election campaign today, RNZ Political Editor Jo Moir says Luxon's line is "just nonsense"."There is no planet on which Christopher Luxon does not pick up the phone if he needs to… I'd also note that Christopher Luxon has said buying back the BNZ is pretty insane as well and he's currently in coalition government with the party that's proposing that idea."So do we not take the Prime Minister at face value?"No is the answer," says Deputy Political Editor Craig McCulloch."Christopher Luxon is asking me to believe that he'd rather go into Opposition than pick up the phone and have a conversation. I don't think a single National voter would be upset with him for breaking that promise when the alternative would be letting Labour go into power."So why did Luxon rule out Opportunity? "Because he doesn't want right-wing voters flirting with that option," McCulloch adds. "And he wants to split the left vote," says Moir.Both editors also suggest that, if the cards fall to Opportunity, National would quietly prefer to form a coalition with ACT and Opportunity than ACT and New Zealand First.It's one of the features of Election 2026 that sets it apart. Others include the first 'rinse and repeat' election since 1993 when the same two leaders are standing for a second time. Though as Moir points out, the roles of prime minister and opposition leader are reversed.Another is that the politics of disgruntlement has spread around the world and more voters than ever before are looking beyond the two main parties. Current polling has Labour and National at 28 percent each, a combined vote for 56 percent. The previous lowest combined vote under MMP was 62.1 percent in 1996, when MMP was first introduced and the public was experimenting with the new system and parties. Before that, you have to go back a century, to the 1920s, to see the two biggest parties with such a small share of the vote.This election looks like it will be as volatile as it is tight. And taking politicians at face value might not be enough.To make sense of Election 2026 listen to Caucus, with Tim Watkin, Jo Moir, Craig McCulloch, and guests. Follow and listen wherever you get your podcasts.