How the US Ban on Chinese Humanoid Robots Could Affect the Industry

dahuang1231 via Getty ImagesAt the end of July, the FCC banned imports of new foreign-made humanoid robots and power inverters, citing national security risks as the Trump administration looks to reduce reliance on Chinese technology.Beijing’s response was swift, with Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning accusing Washington of "protectionism" that would only harm U.S. businesses and consumers alike.The full effect of the anticipated fallout is, however, still emerging. China currently dominates the market, with an Omdia report released in January finding that Chinese robotics firms accounted for the vast majority of global shipments, with Agibot and Unitree leading.But Soumen Mandal, an analyst at Counterpoint Research, told AI Business the ban is unlikely to dent that dominance in the near term."The impact will be more strategic, as the U.S. could have been a major market with significant potential once humanoid robots reach mass adoption," he said. "Chinese players will look for alternative geographies, but it's hard to match the U.S.'s commercial scale and potential."Related:Spot Robot From Boston Dynamics Deployed at Utah Copper MineSimilarly, Ryan Reith, an analyst at IDC, said the immediate impact is likely to be felt more in consumer robotics than humanoids, given the relatively low volumes of humanoid robot sales.“Smart vacuums, pool cleaners, and lawnmowers are the categories that will get hit right away, and the U.S. has already lost most of that ground to Chinese brands,” he told AI Business. “Humanoid and other industrial and commercial robotics products are the center of most discussions because that's the future, but volumes aren't yet at a scale where they'll face immediate setbacks from this ban.”The FCC restrictions are just the latest in a spate of measures from the Trump administration, targeting Chinese technology, including drone imports, smartphone chipsets, EVs and other AI technologies. Mandal said he expects that pattern to continue."I expect this scrutiny to expand further into connected, autonomous, sensing and software technologies, driven by national-security concerns and efforts to protect strategic domestic industries as Chinese companies become increasingly competitive,” he said.A Supply Chain ConcernWhile the measures are intended to protect U.S. infrastructure, robotics researchers and companies could face immediate challenges as they rely heavily on Chinese-made hardware.Chinese manufacturers have become major suppliers of low-cost robotic platforms used by universities, research institutions and companies developing AI-powered machines.Related:DeepSeek Invests in Unitree to Develop AI Brain for Humanoid BotsUnitree, in particular, has gained traction among researchers developing humanoid and quadruped robotics, with its platforms widely used for experimentation and AI development.As such, for companies that increasingly rely on a global supply chain for robotic hardware, new trade restrictions could complicate efforts to scale up physical AI development in the U.S.The response, Mandal says, is likely to be a diversification of supply chains, with researchers and developers alike looking elsewhere to bridge market gaps."Global robotics companies are likely to adopt a 'China+1' or multi-sourcing strategy for critical components such as actuators, motors, sensors, controllers and batteries," he said. "As humanoid robots move toward mass adoption, we could see greater supply-chain diversification across Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Europe, India and Southeast Asia to reduce geopolitical and supply-chain risks."According to Reith, the restrictions could also create opportunities for U.S. robotics companies, but shifting manufacturing and supply chains takes time.“It won't happen overnight, and consumer robotics specifically is unlikely to reshore given thin margins,” he said. “Supply chain diversification is already underway, so this adds pressure to a trend already in motion rather than starting a new one. That said, any U.S.-China tech restriction hurts both sides, and China will likely keep leading in robotics volume and design for several more years regardless.”Related:Google DeepMind Releases Gemini 2 Humanoid ModelAbout the AuthorContributing WriterScarlett Evans is a freelance writer with a focus on emerging technologies and the minerals industry. Previously, she served as assistant editor at IoT World Today, where she specialized in robotics and smart city technologies. Scarlett also has a background in the mining and resources sector, with experience at Mine Australia, Mine Technology and Power Technology. She joined Informa in April 2022 before transitioning to freelance work.