How SAF successes in Sudan’s Kordofan could turn tide against the RSF

Khartoum, Sudan – The Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) gained control over several strategically important villages and localities in west Kordofan this week, shifting the war against the rival paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in its favour.On Friday, the Sudanese army took control of al-Khuwai, according to local media. This is one of the main towns in West Kordofan and a strategically important site in the army’s ongoing campaign against the RSF in the resource-rich state, which began several weeks ago.Recommended Stories list of 3 itemslist 1 of 3Sudan factories struggle to restart after devastating wartime losseslist 2 of 3Sudan war and climate change see parents struggle to feed their childrenlist 3 of 3Sudan teachers go on strike over meagre salaries and dilapidated schoolsend of listSo far, the offensive by the SAF and allied Darfur forces has succeeded in breaking the RSF siege on al-Obeid, the capital of North Kordofan, and surrounding areas.It has also opened up new routes for the army in central and southwest Sudan, paving the way for significant SAF advances in South Kordofan, all the way to Babnusa and the approaches to North Darfur, including an important road linking al-Nuhud, the site of gold mines, and al-Khuwai.The RSF, alongside its alleged allies in the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-North, led by Abdelaziz Al-Hilu, still holds al-Nuhud and parts of South Kordofan. But its recent defeats in southern and western Sudan could weaken the paramilitary’s ability to coopt tribal groups in the region.“The RSF’s shift from attack to defence will alter its military composition, which was built on demanding rapid tribal support,” Mohamed Ali, an independent Sudanese analyst, told Al Jazeera.“The Kordofan region is not a social stronghold for the RSF; therefore, it is expected to withdraw from the region and reposition its forces in Darfur. This would give the army a strategic advantage in Kordofan and could make Darfur the new epicentre of the conflict sooner than expected.”A Sudanese soldier in the Sudanese Armed Forces during a visit by the army leader in Omdurman, October 2025 [N Mahmoud/Al Jazeera]Tribal structuresThe RSF’s main social and tribal support base is among the Arab communities of south and east Darfur, including areas around Nyala and el-Daein, along with border areas with neighbouring countries.The RSF has relied heavily on mobilising tribes and civilians in areas under its control, said Mohiedeen Mohamed, an expert on Sudanese military affairs. This is particularly true when the paramilitary comes under attack from several fronts and reinforcements are desperately needed to hold the line.But this informal coalition is also vulnerable to the changing circumstances in the war, with a number of tribal and other groups defecting from the RSF in recent weeks, as the SAF gains ground.“When the RSF expanded into parts of the Kordofan region, it established alliances with certain tribal groups and local communities,” Mohamed told Al Jazeera.“However, these alliances can be understood, at least in part, as arrangements driven by military and political necessity, rather than necessarily reflecting the longstanding social and historical integration.”Humanitarian crisisAfter the downfall of former Sudan President Omar al-Bashir in 2019, a power struggle between General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, the head of the SAF, and his former ally in the RSF, Mohamed Hamdan “Hemedti” Dagalo, emerged, developing into a nationwide conflict between the two sides in April 2023.Fighting between the SAF and RSF has resulted in one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises, with about 150,000 people killed and more than 14 million of Sudan’s 53 million population displaced in the ongoing war.Following SAF’s military successes in Khartoum and other areas, fighting has focused on the remote, impoverished but oil-rich and strategically important Sudanese provinces of Darfur and Kordofan.A Sudanese citizen at the Sudanese Armed Forces annual anniversary, River Nile state, August 2022 [N Mahmoud/Al Jazeera]The recent battles in Kordofan form part of a broader struggle over geography, economic resources, and supply routes connecting Sudan’s central regions with Darfur and beyond.The RSF still consolidates control across all five states in Darfur, including el-Fasher, the capital of North Darfur, which fell to the RSF in October 2025 after a brutal siege and bloody reprisals that saw thousands of civilians killed, tortured, detained or raped.The United Nations has identified Kordofan as the epicentre of Sudan’s conflict and said fighting in the area is complicating an already dire humanitarian situation.Continued fighting has seen about 4.5 million civilians flee to Chad, Egypt, South Sudan, and other neighbouring countries.Civilians are paying the highest price in the war, with drones targeting them and civilian infrastructure, including homes, schools, health facilities, power and water plants.About 160 people were killed in drone attacks over several days in October in western regions of Sudan.War of attritionWhile both sides have been accused of using drones, analysts see the RSF’s use of drones as part of a wider strategy of intimidation and economic disruption, aimed at spreading fear and paralysing daily life in government areas.“However, the military balance in Kordofan is shifting. The SAF’s growing air superiority, extensive use of drones, and changing ground tactics have enabled advances along unexpected routes, as demonstrated by the capture of Al-Khuwei,” said Mohamed. “These developments significantly reduce the RSF’s chances of regaining lost territory.”Most humanitarian assistance operations in the region have halted due to the deteriorated security situation.Omer Yousif, 55, a driver who works in aid delivery for an organisation called Tasami, said travelling through his native Kordofan has become an increasingly dangerous task. But he believes the humanitarian and security situation might improve if the SAF campaign in the region is successful.“We were travelling to all of Kordofan region despite the danger because we wanted to help our people. I was captured last August by the militia and I was beaten. Some of my colleagues were tortured and killed,” he told Al Jazeera.“Restoring the Kordofan region [to the SAF] means more aid can be delivered to both Kordofan and Darfur region.”A military officer at al-Markhiyat military camp, Omdurman, October 20 [N Mahmoud/Al Jazeera]Al-Rasheed Mohamed, a military expert, told Al Jazeera the SAF offensive in Kordofan appears to have had some success in consolidating their gains in central Sudan, and opening a new route towards Darfur.“Of course, the current operations along the western strategic axis are part of a broader military strategy linked to the overall plan to reclaim control of the entire country and restore Sudan’s sovereignty over every inch of its territory,” he told Al Jazeera.“Although the advances have varied across different fronts, the overarching strategic objective remains the same – the army is now advancing and taking the initiative across these fronts, while the RSF has been pushed into a defensive position.”Border areasControl of Kordofan also brings considerable economic and strategic benefits, with the region being rich in agricultural products, including sesame seeds, groundnuts, hibiscus and gum arabic.It is also home to the strategically important Heglig oilfield, a major oil processing and transit hub for Sudanese and South Sudanese crude, as well as gold.“Ultimately, restoring state control and stability across Kordofan is not merely a territorial or security objective; it is a critical economic and national sovereignty priority,” Mohamed al-Nayer, a professor of economics at the University of Sudan, told Al Jazeera.“It would enable [the] Sudan [government] to regain control of its natural resources, revive exports, restore oil production, increase foreign currency revenues, and lay the foundations for sustainable economic recovery in the short and long term.”Kordofan’s proximity to South Sudan also gives it control over key border crossings, trade routes, pastoral corridors and critical oil infrastructure.Whoever controls Kordofan would thus gain significant economic leverage and strategic influence with neighbouring South Sudan.“Kordofan’s stability is equally important to South Sudan, whose oil exports depend on transportation through Sudanese territory to Bashayer Port,” said al-Nayer.“Both countries therefore share a strategic interest in securing oil infrastructure, protecting border areas, and restoring cross-border trade.”Of particular importance are the area’s strategic oil fields, particularly Heglig and Balila in West Kordofan, which produce 90% of Sudan’s oil. Control over these resources also grants the government linked to the SAF added national and international significance and legitimacy.“Securing these fields and restoring oil production would help reduce Sudan’s dependence on imported petroleum products, strengthen public revenues, and support economic recovery,” alNayer added.