How Republicans lost the midterms as Hispanic and young voters fled Trump’s party

Young voters and Hispanic voters appear to have moved away from Republican candidates in Tuesday's midterms, according to The AP Voter Poll, which suggests the GOP has lost ground with multiple key groups that helped President Donald Trump win in 2024.Republicans had been hoping their candidates could hold onto the winning coalition Trump assembled in the 2024 presidential election. The poll, an expansive survey of about 80,000 voters in all 50 states, suggests young voters were less likely to back House Republicans this year than they were to support Trump in 2024.Young voters, those under 30, were also more likely than older voters to say they voted for the U.S. House to express opposition to Trump. Hispanic voters were also less likely than two years ago to support Republican candidates over Trump. Poll shows 70% of voters under 30 backed Democrats in sharp reversal from 2024After moving toward Trump in the 2024 election, young voters appear to have swung away from the Republican Party in this year's midterms.Supporters celebrate during a watch party for Democratic US Senate candidate Troy Jackson during the US midterm elections in Portland, Maine (Reuters)The AP Voter Poll shows about 7 in 10 voters under 30 nationally say they supported the Democratic candidate in their local U.S. House race, while about 3 in 10 say they voted for the Republican. That is a shift from 2024, when the youngest voters were roughly split between Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris.Young voters make up a fairly small share of voters.Only about 1 in 10 voters in the 2026 midterms are under 30, which limits the shift's impact.But their displeasure with the country and its leadership is clear.About half of young voters say they are "angry" about how things are going in the country today, compared with about one-third of voters ages 65 and older.About 60% of Hispanic voters broke for Democrats, with 7 in 10 blaming Trump for high costs The survey also suggests Republicans may have lost the ground Trump gained with Hispanic voters in 2024, though to a lesser extent than with younger voters. Only about one-third of Hispanic voters say they backed the Republican in their local U.S. House race, while roughly 4 in 10 voted for Trump two years ago. About 6 in 10 Hispanic voters nationally say they voted for the Democratic candidate in their local House race.About 7 in 10 Hispanic voters say Trump's policies have worsened economic conditions in the U.S. While Trump was not on the ballot, many voters had him on their minds.Four in 10 midterm voters cast ballots specifically to oppose TrumpThe AP Voter Poll finds about 4 in 10 voters report wanting “to express opposition” to Trump with their vote for Congress.Just under 2 in 10 voters wanted “to express support” for the president, and roughly 4 in 10 say Trump was not a factor in their decision.Most young voters, those under 30, said they voted to oppose Trump. Older voters, who tend to be more conservative in general, were less likely to say they were trying to signal their dissatisfaction with the president. The survey highlighted voters' unhappiness with Trump's leadership.About 6 in 10 disapprove of how he's handling the presidency. Views of Trump's priorities were also mostly negative. About 6 in 10 voters say Trump prioritizes his personal interests over the country's.Frustrated by executive overreach, Americans across parties demand stronger checks on TrumpMost voters nationally want Congress to provide more checks and balances on the presidency, and they overwhelmingly disapprove of how Congress is doing its job. The survey suggests voters want Congress to take on a stronger role as a co-equal branch of government.Roughly 7 in 10 voters say Congress is doing “not enough” to check the presidency. Only about 2 in 10 say it's doing “about the right amount,” and about 1 in 10 say Congress is doing “too much.”The poll found that dissatisfaction with Congress's role wasn't confined to Democrats. The vast majority of independents and about 4 in 10 Republicans say Congress is not doing enough. The survey reflects deep unhappiness with the president and Congress.About 6 in 10 voters disapprove of how Trump is handling the presidency, while about three-quarters disapprove of how Congress is handling its job. The economy was a clear concern for voters, who expressed alarm over the high cost of gasoline and food. But the survey also found many voters deeply worried about the state of democracy and government corruption.About 4 in 10 voters say the economy is the top issue facing the country, and roughly 3 in 10 say the state of democracy is the top issue. Only about 1 in 10 say the same about immigration or healthcare, and few named foreign policy or crime.Voters trust Democrats more on corruption and economy, but neither party is widely popularRoughly half of U.S. voters said government corruption and the cost of living were "crucial" to their vote for Congress, higher than the share that said that about immigration enforcement policies, the war in Iran or AI data centers.Most voters who said government corruption was "crucial" for their vote for Congress supported the Democratic candidate for the U.S. House, while about 4 in 10 said they voted for the Republican.About 8 in 10 voters who said “the state of democracy” was the top issue facing the country supported the Democrat, while about 2 in 10 supported the Republican.Democrats have at least a small advantage in voters' perceptions of their handling of several major issues, although a significant share of voters say they don't trust either party.Voters are slightly more likely to say Democrats would handle the economy and government corruption better than Republicans, two issues that emerged as highly important to voters in this election.Democrats also have a small edge on foreign policy and a wider advantage on their handling of transgender issues and healthcare.Voters split on which party would better handle artificial intelligence and taxes, while Republicans have a small advantage on immigration.Despite Democrats' relative advantage on issues, though, the Democratic Party is not much more popular with voters than the Republicans.Just under half of voters have a “somewhat” or “strongly” favorable view of the Democratic Party, while about 4 in 10 view the GOP positively.