How NATO Plans to Win: ‘Theory of Victory’ Against Russia to be Unveiled in Poland

NATO’s top military commander in Europe is set to unveil his “Theory of Victory” in Poland, a strategy that reportedly sets out how the alliance could repel and ultimately defeat a Russian attack on its eastern flank. Gen. Alexus Grynkewich, NATO’s Supreme Allied Commander Europe, will publicly present the plan for the first time during a visit to Warsaw next week, Poland’s Defense Minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz told Polish state news agency PAP on Tuesday. JOIN US ON TELEGRAMFollow our coverage of the war on the @Kyivpost_official. Bloomberg reported on Monday that the plan draws heavily on lessons from the war in Ukraine, where relatively cheap drones and rapidly evolving technologies have reshaped the battlefield and exposed the limits of forces built around more expensive conventional weapons. The news outlet, which saw an unclassified version of the document, said NATO would seek to stop a Russian incursion by using ground forces backed by low-cost drones, minimally crewed systems and AI-enabled targeting. Once the alliance had gained freedom of maneuver, its forces would seek to rapidly destroy Russian command-and-control systems and inflict a quick and overwhelming defeat. Grynkewich is due to present the plan at the Warsaw Security Forum, an annual conference bringing together senior political, military and security officials, that will be held in the Polish capital on October 12-13. Other Topics of Interest Russia Repeatedly Tests Romanian Air Defense Romanian radars reported no incursion before a suspected drone fell near the Ukrainian border. Another alert sent Spanish fighters airborne on Monday. Organizers said the strategy had until now been discussed only at the highest level of NATO’s military leadership. Kosiniak-Kamysz told PAP that he had seen Grynkewich’s proposals and rated the US general’s preparations “very highly.” The plan reportedly covers how NATO would respond to a potential Russian incursion into the alliance’s territory. Photo: Andrzej Iwanczuk/NurPhoto/Getty Images ‘Maintain NATO’s advantage’ Grynkewich’s spokesman, Col. Martin O’Donnell, told Bloomberg: “The Supreme Allied Commander Europe’s theory of victory is simple: maintain NATO’s advantage.” “Given the unsettled and complex global security environment, we need to set conditions now to deter aggression and, if necessary, win if attacked,” he said. According to Bloomberg, the strategy also covers hybrid attacks that fall below the threshold of open warfare, with NATO seeking to demonstrate sufficient readiness to convince a potential adversary that aggression would fail. Poland is a significant setting for the unveiling. The NATO eastern-flank state borders Ukraine and Belarus and shares a 210-kilometer land frontier with Russia’s heavily militarized Kaliningrad exclave, leaving it exposed in the event of any aggression by Moscow. Tensions on eastern flank The plan comes amid heightened tensions between Moscow and the NATO alliance more than four years into Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. NATO says hostile Russian activity against its members and partners, including airspace violations, cyberattacks and acts of sabotage, has increased in frequency. But NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte said last week there was “no imminent threat” to alliance territory, adding that NATO would detect and respond to any Russian military buildup. The alliance has nevertheless steadily reinforced its eastern defenses since Russia invaded Ukraine, with Poland among nine countries now hosting multinational battlegroups. NATO has also adopted what it describes as its most comprehensive and detailed defense plans since the Cold War. TVP World is Poland's first English-language channel where you can find our guest interviews, world news from the Polish perspective and the latest news from the CEE region.