How Bad Will the Economy Be?

Economic performance in the United States has proved unexpectedly resilient in recent years, withstanding even Donald Trump’s return to the White House. But, from a failed war of choice against Iran to reckless deregulation, fundamental risks are piling up, and uncertainty has become so extreme that economic forecasters cannot even assign probabilities to them. While that rules out confident prediction, the global connectedness of these risks means that what comes next is certain to reverberate...