How Airlines Pick Which Destinations They Fly to

Ever wonder how an airline decides where to fly next? Major carriers have entire departments dedicated to just that. It's called network planning, and the job is somewhat of an art—but mostly a science.Every summer, US airlines introduce a slate of new seasonal routes. It's not only a splashy way to announce ticket sales for the following year, but it also captures the interest of travelers dreaming of their next big trip. Nonstop to the south of France, anyone?At American Airlines, which officially turned 100 years old this year, “network planning is always looking at opportunities to grow the route network,” says Brian Znotins, the carrier's senior vice president of network planning. “We look at data about what destinations our customers are searching for.”While that might sound simple, Znotins leads a department at American responsible for more than 2,100 domestic and 700 international routes. That includes all-new destinations, including the ones it recently announced in August. To commemorate the centennial, we caught up with Znotins get a behind-the-scenes look at what it really takes to launch a new flight.Gauging interest in where to goBefore flights are put on sale, network planners study everything from industry demand models to calendars of global events. Sometimes the pattern is unmistakable, like when American added Prague and Budapest this summer season. They were two of the most-searched cities that the airline did not serve, and American launched both on the same day.Alternatively, the motivation to start a route could be much less scientific. "We also get inspiration from articles we read in a magazine about up-and-coming destinations," says Znotins.All of that planning takes time. The process of putting a new pin on the map can start more than a year before an official announcement.While domestic flights can come together more quickly, sometimes in a matter of weeks or months, the lead time is often longer for long international routes. These build an airline's long-term competitive position (and industry bragging rights).An American Airlines flight attendant in Chicago, circa 1939. GettyFinding the right airplaneFor American and other carriers, one of the biggest factors determining which routes actually happen is resource allocation. Which is to say, the available aircraft.During the pandemic, American retired a large swath of its long-haul fleet—Boeing 767s, 757s, and Airbus A330-300s. Therefore, much of American's growth since 2020 has come from domestic flying and routes to Mexico and the Caribbean. International long-haul? That mostly stalled.But new aircraft deliveries and technological advancements are changing that. One plane in particular is reshaping how Znotins sees his route network: the Airbus A321XLR.American was the first US carrier to take delivery of the A321XLR late last year, with 50 of them on the way. This single-aisle Airbus features the airline’s new Flagship Suites, along with a premium economy and economy cabin.More importantly, however, the plane is capable of flying between continental Europe and the US East Coast. With only 155 seats, the A321XLR is a significantly smaller aircraft than what’s traditionally been used to cross the Atlantic."Vienna and Porto are prime examples of what we can do with this aircraft that we couldn't before," Znotins says. "We're competitive to smaller, thinner destinations where a wide-body would be too big."In August, American announced new long-haul routes for 2027; among them are New York to Nice and Amsterdam, along with Philadelphia to Porto and Vienna. These four routes will be operated exclusively by the A321XLR jet.Seasonal shiftsHaving another type of aircraft also changes how American thinks about seasonal shifts in demand. Historically, European travel spiked in summer before falling off sharply in fall and winter. However, that’s changing, as travelers continue to visit in milder months with fewer crowds.“Something that we've seen in the last few years has been the seasonal creep," Znotins explains. “We’ve got a tremendous opportunity to tap into those demand streams.”Therefore, a seasonal route like New York to Barcelona, which is flown by a larger wide-body plane, can now switch to the A321XLR in the winter months. More importantly, American can maintain service year-round.Reacting in real-timeExternal forces, like geopolitics and fuel prices, factor into network planning, too. Znotins says that if it weren't for outside influences, an airline could simply set its network and let it run on autopilot.Instead, a conflict that closes airspace or a spike in fuel costs may force his team to react. Airlines also don’t want planes to sit idle, so they have to be shifted to wherever they can be flown most efficiently.Companies that have a corporate contract with American can influence schedules. For instance, a second daily daytime flight between New York and London Heathrow starts in the spring, because business travelers had specifically requested it."This flight schedule is really popular with our corporate clients who can get a full night's rest before their business meetings without burning another day away from home," Znotins says.A hundred years of new routesA century ago, a small biplane carried mail from Chicago to St. Louis, becoming the origin story for American. The carrier later pioneered nonstop service between New York and Los Angeles in the 1950s, with a Douglas DC-7."American has, along with the industry, expanded its horizons as new aircraft and new technologies become available," Znotins notes.Now, the airline operates more than 6,000 flights a day in more than 60 countries. As for what other routes might be on the horizon, Znotins wouldn't reveal specifics, but pointed to "opportunities to fly to secondary destinations in Europe, North Africa, and South America."