Home Office data shows fall in small boat migrant numbers partly due to Channel weather conditions

See more Daily Mail on Google - save us as a Preferred Source Published: 12:53 EDT, 10 September 2026 | Updated: 12:53 EDT, 10 September 2026 The fall in small boat arrivals this year is partly due to weather conditions in the Channel, Home Office data has confirmed.The number of days when weather was favourable for illegal dinghy crossings – dubbed ‘red days’ by officials - was 110 between January and the end of August this year.It was down 11 per cent on the same point last year, when there had been 123 red days.The data indicated the lower number of red days was partly responsible for a 44 per cent fall in the number of small boat arrivals so far this year compared with the same point in 2025.Despite the figures Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood claimed Channel weather conditions had had no effect on small boat arrivals, in a bid to attribute the fall to Labour’s policies.The Home Secretary said: ’Small boat crossings are down significantly, with the lowest number of arrivals over the summer since 2020.‘The data clearly shows this is not because of crossing conditions, but thanks to our efforts to restore order and control at our border.’She added: ‘We will continue to be relentless in driving numbers down further. I will do whatever it takes to bear down on these dangerous and illegal crossings.’ Migrants board a dinghy off Gravelines beach in northern France in JulyMs Mahmood also said the average number of migrants reaching Britain on a typical red day had fallen to 144 from 232 last year.But the Conservatives accused her accused of ‘twisting the facts’.Shadow Home Secretary Chris Philp said: ‘There are fewer red days this year compared to last - so the weather has been tougher for migrant crossings.‘Labour are twisting the facts by attempting to claim the weather has nothing to do with the year-on-year fall in small boat arrivals. ‘The Home Office’s own data shows there have been fewer days so far this year when there were favourable crossing conditions for small boats.’He added: ‘The fact is that nearly 20,000 illegal immigrants have crossed so far this year which is 20,000 too many.‘Shabana Mahmood is paying £660million for French officers to stand by doing nothing while illegal immigrants embark.‘The only solution is the Conservative borders plan which will see us leave the European Convention on Human Rights so we can deport all illegal immigrants within a week of arrival.’The Home Office data, published yesterday on Thursday, showed the average number of migrants arriving on red days this year was down 43 per cent from its peak in 2022, from 251 to 144.A red day is declared when factors such as wind speed and direction make crossings from France ‘likely’ or ‘highly likely’, combined with other factors such as numbers of migrants estimated to be awaiting crossings.Labour scrapped the previous government’s Rwanda asylum deal – designed to deter crossings and save lives – as one of its first acts in office.Instead, it said it would tackle the crisis by investing in law enforcement operations against people traffickers.A £660million, three-year deal with the French government has seen the number of anti-migrant beach patrol officers increased to more than 1,000.