Here’s when food prices might go up because of El Niño

The climate pattern could potentially push up prices for staple foods such as maize. South Africa could face another food price shock as El Niño threatens hotter, drier conditions, raising the risk of drought, crop losses and higher agricultural production costs. El Niño is a weather phenomenon caused by warming surface waters in the Pacific Ocean that alter weather patterns worldwide. In Southern Africa, it often brings hotter temperatures and below-average rainfall, increasing the risk of drought and poor harvests. If the weather phenomenon intensifies, this could pressure agricultural production and food supplies, potentially pushing up prices for staple foods such as maize and other everyday essentials. Prices remain moderate Chief economist of the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa, Wandile Sihlobo, said households are safe for the remainder of 2026 and the beginning of 2027 because the country’s agriculture sector had a good crop season. Sihlobo highlighted that a good crop season is reflected in lower consumer food price inflation. Inflation increased in August due to high fuel prices driven by the Middle East conflict. According to Statistics South Africa (Stats SA), food price inflation was 0.7% in August 2026, up from 0.6% the previous month. These July and August 2026 levels are still the lowest seen since 2010. “The key products keeping consumer food price inflation at these lower levels are mainly grain-related, fruits and vegetables, which are all currently in deflation,” said Sihlobo. El Niño might drive food prices in 2027 Sihlobo believes food prices might start to rise in 2027 as fears of the expected El Niño drought begin to show in various food product prices. He also noted that the U.S.-Iran war will further hit fuel costs. “I still worry that the U.S.-Iran war remains the major near-term risk and is likely to drive higher fuel costs. Fuel accounts for a substantial share of food distribution costs. Notably, over 80% of staple food products are transported by road. “In the medium term, the forecast El Niño drought is a concern, but it may only affect the direction of 2027 food price inflation, as it affects next season’s crop, which will be planted from mid-October, and come to market in mid-2027.” Minimise water losses Sihlobo has called on municipalities to minimise water leaks ahead of the likely El Niño climate pattern. This is as the country loses at least R26 billion annually due to water losses, according to a parliamentary reply by the minister of Water and Sanitation, Pemmy Majodina, in June 2026. “We are heading towards a likely El Niño, which will strain water resources,” warned Sihlobo. “Dams across the country have plenty of water, which could carry us through for some time. But wastage and water leaks are a risk. Municipalities must minimise these losses.” Meat prices remain moderate Sihlobo noted that the pace of cattle slaughter has declined somewhat, though not notably. “Another factor to keep in mind is that during foot-and-mouth disease outbreaks, the country is typically temporarily closed to some export markets, increasing domestic supplies even if slaughter has declined somewhat,” he added. “Base effects on meat prices, along with continued cattle slaughter, have helped ease price inflation. Poultry production conditions are also favourable.”