Here’s What the ‘Super’ El Niño Could Mean for Snowfall Across the US This Winter

As the strongest El Niño in recorded history rapidly takes shape, meteorologists are already looking ahead to the season that will be most affected: winter. This phenomenon can drastically shift snowfall patterns across North America, and forecasters expect to see a marked contrast between regions. In an article for Severe Weather Europe, meteorologist Andrej Flis shares his predictions for winter 2026/2027. He expects significant snowfall deficits across much of the northern U.S., but above-average snowfall across most western, southern, central, and eastern states. It’s important to note that stronger El Niños increase the odds that expected global weather shifts will happen, but they do not guarantee any single local outcome. Every El Niño unfolds differently. These predictions are best guesses informed by historical outcomes, long-range forecast models, and projections for the timing and intensity of El Niño’s peak. With that said, let’s dive into why and how snowfall patterns might shift across the U.S. this winter. How El Niño shifts snowfall El Niño is the warm phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, the biggest year-to-year climate variation on the planet. It begins with a slowdown of east-to-west trade winds that usually pile up warm water in the western Pacific. This allows all that warm water to slosh eastward across the Pacific Basin and raise sea surface temperatures near the Americas, specifically in the central and eastern tropical Pacific. According to Flis, El Niño creates an area of low pressure in the North Pacific that tends to weaken the polar jet stream but strengthen the subtropical jet stream over the southern United States. These fast-moving currents of air transport moisture and precipitation from west to east around the globe. “An extended Pacific jet stream brings along lower pressure, cooler temperatures, and more moisture,” Flis explains. “This combination can really increase the snowfall potential across the central and eastern United States, if enough cold air is available.” What to expect this winter This is no ordinary El Niño. Sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific are rising faster than meteorologists have ever seen before. Model projections show this event peaking around December, with sea surface temperatures anywhere from 5.4 degrees Fahrenheit (3 degrees Celsius) to 8.1 degrees F (4.5 degrees C) above average. Even at the low end of that range, this El Niño would be the strongest on record by a long shot. The latest pressure forecast for this winter is already showing clear signs of this “super” El Niño’s influence, according to Flis. It predicts a deep zone of low pressure in the North Pacific and an area of high pressure over Canada that could block the normal west-to-east movement of weather systems. A strengthened Pacific jet stream will also result in an amplified low-pressure pattern across the southern and eastern United States. This is the typical setup during a strong El Niño winter. Using ERA5, a global climate and weather reanalysis dataset that provides hourly data on atmospheric, land-surface, and sea-state parameters from 1940 to today, Flis analyzed average winter snowfall anomalies during the past four super El Niño events. The Sierra Nevada, the Four Corners region, the Southern Rockies, and parts of the Central Plains and upper Midwest recorded above-normal snowfall, whereas the Pacific Northwest, the Great Lakes, the Ohio Valley, and the Northeast recorded large snowfall deficits. “This shows that despite a good jet stream position, the warm Canadian ridge limits cold air intrusions and can suppress sustained northern storm tracks,” Flis writes. The snowfall forecast for this super El Niño slightly deviates from this pattern. That’s not unusual—again, every El Niño unfolds differently. According to Flis, the northern U.S. can expect reduced snowfall, but the Southwest, Southeast, the Central Plains, and parts of the Midwest, East, and Mid-Atlantic are likely to see above-normal snowfall. The highest snow potential will be across California’s Sierra Nevada, Utah, and the Central to Southern Rockies, but the start of the snow season could be “rather slow,” Flis reports. A plentiful snow season in the West would be a welcome change from this year’s historic snow drought, which drastically worsened drought conditions and set the stage for rampant wildfires. Still, experts say this super El Niño likely won’t make a meaningful difference for the Colorado River, which is currently facing an unprecedented water crisis. As the peak of El Niño grows closer, its impact on the months ahead will become more clear. However, the inherent uncertainty associated with these events will be greater than ever, as experts and the climate models they rely on have never seen an El Niño of such incredible strength before.