Hegseth’s $1.5 trillion budget on life support after ‘bluenami’ midterm results

Secretary of War Pete Hegseth’s $1.5 trillion defense budget, which he has touted as a much-needed “generational investment,” looks increasingly unlikely to come to fruition following Tuesday’s midterm elections.The department’s $1.5 trillion defense budget request was broken into two: a base budget of $1.15 trillion and a reconciliation bill for $350 billion, which could be passed with only Republican support. The Trump administration is also seeking an $87 billion supplemental package, announced in June, that would include $67 billion to cover the costs of the war in Iran.Hegseth has described the budget as a generational increase that would fund the department’s advancements in autonomy, robotics, and artificial intelligence for years to come, as well as several projects President Donald Trump has personally supported, such as the Golden Dome and Golden Fleet. Rep. Adam Smith (D-WA) is the top Democrat on the House Committee on Armed Services, and he is seeking the chairmanship in the new Congress. In a lengthy statement addressing his plans for the committee, Smith said they “must push for the development of a more realistic and sustainable approach to our national security — one that does not require a defense budget in excess of $1 trillion or one paid for with draconian cuts to critical domestic programs.”Just a couple of weeks ago, Hegseth said, “We will ensure, regardless of what happens in the midterms, we’re running fast immediately with the committees to ensure that [the] reconciliation bill, at a minimum of 350 [billion dollars], potentially more.”But Tuesday’s “bluenami” has further complicated the effort, in part due to the Iran war, which both President Donald TrumpDonald Trump and Vice President JD Vance have said hurt the GOP in the elections.A third of the Senate Republicans who currently sit on the appropriations subcommittee for defense are on their way out or could be. Chairman Mitch McConnell (R-KY) did not seek reelection, Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) lost her reelection bid, and Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith (R-MS) is currently losing her race, but it’s yet to be called for either candidate.“The Pentagon will have to rethink its budget proposals going forward… not just the size of the budget, but the scope as well, and particular high-profile items,” a former senior government official told the Washington Examiner. “Democrats will likely want to curtail any pet projects of President Trump and Secretary Hegseth, though I would anticipate broad support for items such as rebuilding our missile stockpiles and our drone and counter-drone capabilities.”Hegseth has long had an adversarial relationship with Democrats throughout his time as secretary, and it will come into play moving forward as they have promised additional oversight of the Pentagon. There has been chatter about a possible impeachment attempt against Hegseth, though Trump has publicly maintained his support for the secretary.Elaine McCusker, who served as deputy and then acting undersecretary of defense comptroller from 2017 through 2020, told the Washington Examiner election results “emphasize the importance of completing a bipartisan budget agreement this calendar year and confirm the urgency for the lame duck session of Congress to approve a full-year military budget.”McCusker, who is now with the American Enterprise Institute, added, “The administration must support a deal with a very strong and open information sharing campaign and partnership with the Congress that includes prioritized options to fit the $1.5 trillion+ request into a lower number, whatever that number is.”The Pentagon has never had a $1 trillion budget before, though it has had a higher defense budget as a percentage of GDP. The $1.5 trillion budget would come in at around 4.4% of GDP, which is in line with what the administration has asked of NATO allies. The budget accounted for more than 11% of GDP at the end of the Korean War in 1953 and exceeded 8% of GDP during the Vietnam War.Alex Plitsas, a former Army veteran and current Atlantic Council expert, believes the department did a disservice by highlighting the dollar amount rather than the percentage of GDP, which wouldn’t be seen as a historic budget request.“I think overall, strategically, it’s been positioned as 1.5 trillion, which I think has actually been a bad communication strategy on this,” he said. “What we’re really talking about is moving to 5% of U.S. GDP, which is about what $1.5 trillion represents. And in that case, that is the same that we are asking European allies to spend on defense, and that’s been a clear message from the president to NATO.”DEMOCRATS SALIVATE OVER PENTAGON OVERSIGHT WITH NEW MAJORITIESThe case that Hegseth and other defense officials make for the increase in defense spending correlates with both the growing threats posed by two possible near-peer adversaries, China and Russia, and the whole world’s efforts to harness the power of autonomous systems, robotics, artificial intelligence, and space.“Defense appropriations will be a big issue,” the former senior government official added. “I think there is broad recognition that higher defense spending needs to be sustained, if not increased.”