Heavy fighting, telecoms disruption as Ethiopia conflict rages

The government has a significant military advantage, with a large arsenal of drones, an army of about 500,000 troops and support from outside powers.(AFP) — Heavy fighting erupted on multiple fronts between Ethiopian forces and rebel groups Friday, while a telecommunications disruption raised fears in Tigray of a return to the blockade the northern region endured during the last civil war.The Tigray People’s Liberation Front, or TPLF, seized local airports and launched attacks this week into neighboring Afar and Amhara with the support of local armed groups. It said it was once again in a “full-blown war” with the federal government.Tigrayans rushed to buy alternative SIM cards as phone and internet service experienced near-total disruption.Many fear a repeat of the blockade imposed on Tigray during the 2020-22 civil war, one of the deadliest conflicts in recent decades. More than 600,000 people died by some estimates, and electricity, banking services and nearly all aid were cut off.A humanitarian source in Afar reported “heavy fighting overnight,” including drone strikes, near Abala, a town in the mountains along the Afar-Tigray border. The source said federal forces prevented rebels from entering the town and warned that hundreds of thousands of civilians could be displaced.“Heavy fighting” also broke out in western Tigray near May Gaba and Tselimo, according to conflict monitor ACLED. It said an unspecified number of TPLF fighters surrendered but were replaced by reinforcements.In Amhara, the army said it had killed more than 700 TPLF fighters. It gave no figures for army or civilian casualties.Clashes were reported Thursday in Amhara’s North Wollo Zone, including near Lalibela, home to Ethiopia’s UNESCO World Heritage-listed rock-hewn churches.U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres was “particularly troubled by reports of the use of drones as well as incidents of harm to civilians,” his spokesman said Friday. Guterres raised the deteriorating situation with world leaders gathered in New York.No brakesThe TPLF has formed an alliance with six other armed groups seeking to overthrow Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government. An eighth group, the Sidama Liberation Front, based in southern Ethiopia, said Friday that it had joined the alliance, though it has not been very active in recent years.Analysts say the TPLF appears to be repeating its strategy from the last war: pushing south through Amhara toward the capital, Addis Ababa.The offensive in Afar is likely aimed at cutting off supplies from Djibouti, which handles almost all of Ethiopia’s international cargo, including fuel.The government has a significant military advantage, however, with a large arsenal of drones, an army of about 500,000 troops and support from outside powers, notably the United Arab Emirates.Clionadh Raleigh, head of ACLED, said in a report that while the conflict was not yet an all-out war, she could see no “brakes in the system that prevent it from escalating further.”The conflict could also draw in neighboring Eritrea on the rebels’ side. Eritrea fears landlocked Ethiopia may be planning to invade to gain direct access to the Red Sea.“I don’t expect this to go back to a quiet, low-intensity conflict. There are too many interests involved now,” Raleigh said.Washington this month lifted sanctions related to atrocities committed during the last civil war, saying the “national emergency … has expired.” The U.S. Embassy said this week it was “disappointed” by the TPLF offensive.Panic buyingIn Tigray, prices for basic goods have spiked as residents stock up on supplies.“There is panic in the community,” Samuel Gebreslassie, 37, who works in a spice shop in the Tigrayan capital, Mekelle, told AFP on Thursday.“There is deep fear that banks, telecom networks, electricity and basic goods could be cut off again.”The TPLF dominated Ethiopian politics from 1991 to 2018 before being sidelined after Abiy came to power. Tensions eventually erupted into a civil war marked by widespread war crimes and sexual violence.The 2022 Pretoria peace agreement, brokered by African institutions and Washington, maintained an uneasy calm until last year but was never fully implemented. About 1 million people remain displaced.Sporadic clashes then resumed. Federal forces have launched multiple drone strikes in Tigray in recent months and massed troops along the border.Rights groups have accused the TPLF of forcibly recruiting people this year as it prepared for renewed conflict.Subscribe to our free newslettersOur weekly newsletter Closing Arguments offers the latest about ongoing trials, major litigation and rulings in courthouses around the U.S. and the world, while the monthly Under the Lights dishes the legal dirt from Hollywood, sports, Big Tech and the arts.Additional Reads