Hard Realities: Without Pressure on Russia, Talks Will Remain an Illusion

Perhaps at no time since the beginning of Russia’s “full-scale” war against Ukraine have hopes for ending it through diplomacy alone seemed so detached from reality. Ukrainians face a stark reality: daily drone, missile and bomb terror, constant Russian “assaults” on the front line, the starvation of the occupied city of Oleshky, and the Kremlin criminals’ determination to bring the “special military operation” to a “victorious end.” It seems that politicians who speak of the possibility of “peace talks” beginning soon still live under the illusion that Putin may have an “awakening,” that the ruling elite may stage a “coup”; and they rejoice at every report of the dictator’s popularity inside Russia falling by a few percentage points.JOIN US ON TELEGRAMFollow our coverage of the war on the @Kyivpost_official. At the same time, the only effective recipe for forcing Putin into negotiations that would not amount to a demand for Ukraine’s capitulation has not changed. Its components are well known: stop the advance of Putin’s horde and reliably stabilize the front, radically increase military assistance to Ukraine and continue its financial support, and make the sanctions regime, with all its loopholes, truly hellish. Russia’s military machine cannot be broken while some EU countries remain among the major consumers of Russian energy resources. If good news from the front can be achieved only through the efforts of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the Ukrainian defense industry, achieving everything else is impossible without our partners, especially Europe, given the halt in funding for aid to Ukraine by the administration of Donald Trump. Other Topics of Interest US-Russia Peace Talks Eye Multibillion Lukoil Oil Deal US Envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner discussed a sanctions-lifting buyout of Lukoil’s global assets directly with Vladimir Putin. The situation with air defense systems is particularly dire. Despite the horrific consequences for Ukraine’s civilian population of the latest strikes by Russian terrorists, EU countries have failed to make a decision on the urgent delivery of additional surface-to-air missiles to Ukraine. The possibility of partners participating in closing Ukraine’s skies is considered only in the distant future – in the event of a ceasefire – instead of becoming a powerful factor of pressure on an aggressor convinced of its impunity. Protecting Ukrainian skies, our maritime borders and ensuring freedom of navigation are relevant precisely now, when the outcome of this phase of the war is being determined. What is needed are concrete actions, not phantom initiatives with illusory chances of implementation, such as the “coalition of the willing.”As for the sanctions regime, it appears to be in a state of crisis. On the one hand, thanks to the actions of Ukraine’s partners, serious damage has been inflicted on the economy of the aggressor state. Yet the entire history of sanctions shows that sound political declarations often fail to withstand competition with the mercantile interests of individual states. And the problem is not limited to the clinical cases of Viktor Orban’s Hungary or Robert Fico’s Slovakia. Russia’s military machine cannot be broken while some EU countries remain among the major consumers of Russian energy resources. The prospects also look far from encouraging given the strengthening of right-wing radicals in European countries who proclaim: “France, Germany, Great Britain and so on – first and foremost!”The application of sanctions against those countries that help Russia circumvent the sanctions regime, thereby enabling the Putin regime to continue the war, is of key importance for radically increasing the pain inflicted on Russia by sanctions. I have doubts that the current US administration is prepared to impose the sanctions against China envisaged by the widely publicized Graham Act, given that Trump is trying to reach an understanding with China, at least in the trade and economic sphere.Thus, there are currently no grounds for anticipating even minimally constructive negotiations on a ceasefire in the Russian-Ukrainian war along the line of contact. They can emerge only when military, economic and political pressure on Russia reaches the critical point at which continuing its aggression becomes impossible for it. Otherwise, Putin and his coterie of siloviki will continue to insist on maximalist terms for ending hostilities that would amount to Ukraine’s capitulation.Another harsh reality must also be taken into account. Reaching an agreement on a ceasefire while Russia retains the Ukrainian territories it has seized would mean only the end of the current phase of the Russian-Ukrainian war – a pause before a new wave of Russian aggression.Moreover, an escalation of Russian aggression beyond Ukraine’s borders in the near future cannot be ruled out. And this would not concern hybrid warfare, but kinetic actions and armed confrontation. Putin is encouraged to take such actions by the ineffective European response to previous provocations by Putin, the rather slow pace of reorganizing and developing European military capabilities, and the de-Europeanization of US foreign policy under Trump. European democracies must be prepared for a confrontation by force with the Russian dictatorship – both operationally and mentally. Finally, war has become, if not the only possible, then the optimal way of functioning – not just for Putin and his entourage, but also for millions of Russians in one way or another connected to the defense industry.If these “dark” scenarios materialize, the war risks once again becoming a European institution, with consequences that would be catastrophic not only for Europe but also for global security. European democracies must be prepared for a confrontation by force with the Russian dictatorship – both operationally and mentally.In this context, there is no alternative to pooling the military capabilities of a broader Europe and Ukraine. It is fundamentally important that our state become an integral part of the new European defense system, rather than simply serving as a “shield” deterring an aggressive Russia. For our part, this will require not only the heroic efforts and combat experience of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, but also a radical change in the model and methods of governing the state, including the military sphere and the defense industry. The views expressed in this opinion article are the author’s and not necessarily those of Kyiv Post.