Gunnar Henderson and Elly De La Cruz Are This Offseason’s Most Interesting Trade Chips

Ken Blaze and Katie Stratman-Imagn Images If you’re anything like us here at FanGraphs HQ, you also spent days agonizing over our annual list of the top 50 free agents on the market this winter. Arguing whether Carson Kelly or Tyler Stephenson should be ranked higher is our unalienable right as sovereign citizens, and it’s also a whole lot of harmless fun. But you may have also noticed, unlike the 2022 ultra-free-agent class that included Corey Seager, Carlos Correa, and Trevor Story, the pickings are quite slim at shortstop this year. Mauricio Dubón and J.P. Crawford — useful, but not building-block players — are the best the position has to offer. As such, any team with a shortstop-sized hole on its roster would be wiser to peruse the trade market, where two young players with immense talent but without long-term contracts could aptly fill in: Gunnar Henderson of the Orioles and Elly De La Cruz of the Reds. Let’s begin Henderson. The onetime wunderkind has had an alarming decline in production since putting up 7.9 WAR and a 154 wRC+ as a 23-year-old in 2024. That season — which also came with a .281 batting average, 21 stolen bases, and a fourth-place MVP finish — serves as a reminder of what he is capable of. But a quick check of both his traditional stats and the peripherals shows that he has not been the same hitter since. Part of that, as Henderson revealed after this season, Baltimore’s second straight below .500, has been the result of shoulder and wrist injuries. Diving for a ball in 2025 caused a shoulder impingement that Henderson said negatively influenced his bat plane, and he spent half of 2026 playing with a barking wrist. Davy Andrews covered Henderson’s ailments in depth at the beginning of October, and a fully healed Henderson could certainly bounce back in 2027, but as he tried to grit his way through the last two campaigns, his performance has not been commensurate with that of a superstar player. In the two seasons since his peak, the home run totals have sagged from 37 to 17 and 24, respectively, and his collective slugging percentage is over 100 points lower, going from .529 in 2024 to a lethargic .420 across ’25 and ’26. However you slice the advanced numbers, too, they’re unappetizing. By wRC+, wOBA, xwOBA, xSLG — and perhaps most indicative of physical troubles, average exit velocity, hard-hit rate, and barrel rate — Henderson has taken a noticeable step back. So too has his ballclub, which took him in the second round of the 2019 draft, the same one in which they selected Adley Rutschman first overall. Seven years later, with zero playoff wins to show for it, Rutschman is already out the door, and Henderson could be next. Andy Kostka, who covers the Orioles for the Baltimore Banner, reported this week that the O’s would like to add to their lackluster starting rotation and outfield, and the front office is “maintaining a willingness to listen in trade discussions on every player except Pete Alonso,” with the caveat that moving Henderson “isn’t likely and would cost a steep returning price to Baltimore, but at this point, the Orioles are keeping their options open on all fronts.” With Rutschman traded to a division rival, homegrown talent Jackson Holliday and Colton Cowser underwhelming thus far in their major league careers, and the team also likely to lose Trevor Rogers in free agency, these birds may be flying toward another rebuild. Henderson is the one player capable of fetching a return that would make that easier for Orioles fans to stomach. The key thing to remember about Henderson — apart from his not-distant-at-all track record of being an outstanding player — is that he’s still just 25 years old. It’s far more likely that his 2025 and 2026 downturns were a combo platter of his being hurt and dealing with standard growing pains (albeit over a fairly large sample size), than they were an indication of a player who was beginning to lose his mojo for good. His bat speed, like everything else, has trended downward over the last two years, but it’s still in the 73rd percentile. His walk rate has stabilized right around 10% too, and even though he’s chasing more pitches, that’s a tangible thing that can be fixed with a refined approach. Teams with weak-hitting shortstops in 2026 should, and will, look at Henderson as a very fixable project rather than a depreciating lemon, especially if he can start his new job with a clean bill of health. The Braves, Blue Jays, and Mariners all got below-average production from the position last year and each has a player on our Top 100 Prospects list that plays outfield or starting pitcher, Baltimore’s purported areas of interest. In Seattle and Toronto’s case, the organizations also have enticing young players at the big league level that make sense as trade chips to package with premium minor leaguers. George Kirby and Bryce Miller’s names will surely be batted around Jerry Dipoto’s office, as the M’s have rising starters Kade Anderson and Ryan Sloan lying in wait. The Blue Jays, meanwhile, can dangle Brandon Valenzuela, Brett Bateman, and/or Spencer Miles, or even Trey Yesavage if they’re looking to hit their roster with a cannonball splash rather than just a ripple. But while Henderson’s value has backslid, a different Gen Z shortstop is coming off his best year ever at the plate. De La Cruz, who logged the first 30/30 season of his career, cleared the double-digit walk rate and .500 slugging thresholds, and improved his exit velocity numbers in 2026, stands as the best player with a realistic chance of being traded. Cincinnati has claimed its spot as among baseball’s most rudderless franchises, finishing in the dreaded 75- to 83-win zone for four consecutive years. With the city’s poor track record as a free-agent destination, plus ownership’s unwillingness to spend, the path to relevance for the Reds runs through trades and player development. De La Cruz has certainly been a big win for them in the latter department, but with little help around him, it hasn’t translated to wins. Sal Stewart offers a glimmer of hope, but he and De La Cruz alone do not give Cincy’s lineup enough oomph to compete with the Brewers and Cubs, and there’s a strong argument to be made that the Reds should load up their prospect artillery and wait until Milwaukee and Chicago’s current waves crest.You Aren't a FanGraphs MemberIt looks like you aren't yet a FanGraphs Member (or aren't logged in). We aren't mad, just disappointed. We get it. You want to read this article. But before we let you get back to it, we'd like to point out a few of the good reasons why you should become a Member. 1. Ad Free viewing! We won't bug you with this ad, or any other. 2. Unlimited articles! Non-Members only get to read 10 free articles a month. Members never get cut off. 3. Dark mode and Classic mode! 4. Custom player page dashboards! Choose the player cards you want, in the order you want them. 5. One-click data exports! Export our projections and leaderboards for your personal projects. 6. 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Membership includes:✓Ad-free browsing✓Unlimited FanGraphs & RotoGraphs articles✓Historical & platoon projections✓Leaderboard & player-page stat heatmaps✓One-click data exports✓Customizable player-page dashboards✓Dark & Classic site modes✓Weekly Members-only mailbag✓FanGraphs Walk-Off, your year in review✓Optional homepage photo removal✓Gift articles to non-Members✓Full postseason coverage All that, plus a recent Jim Bowden article in The Athletic that listed the Red Sox as an interested suitor for De La Cruz, point to the Reds’ decision makers thinking the same way. (The piece also mentioned that the Red Sox will call about Nationals infielder CJ Abrams, an excellent player in his own right, but one whose offensive highs aren’t as high as those of Henderson or De La Cruz, and who comes with massive question marks on defense.) De La Cruz is one of the true athletic freaks in the game, blessed with raw power, arm strength, and sprint speed that all easily pass the eye test and the Statcast metrics. If there’s anything to fret about with him, it’s how his enormous body will hold up as his career progresses. But so far, so good, as De La Cruz played all 162 in 2025 and 160 the year before, with a minor quad strain limiting him to 143 in 2026. If a team is to pry De La Cruz away from the Reds, they’ll have to sell the farm. Luckily for Boston, who would happily bump Story and his whimpering arm strength to second base to make room for the 24-year-old De La Cruz, they have a player whose farm reports have been nothing but spectacular. Should the Red Sox want to part ways with him, 20-year-old Dominican shortstop Franklin Arias just ran roughshod through both Double-A and Triple-A, bringing home a .323/.400/.557 slash line and a 145 wRC+ between the two levels. His terrific showing in 2026 earned him a 60-FV grade and the no. 2 spot on The Board, where the scouting report anoints him “among the highest-floored prospects in baseball.” In other words, Arias could be anything, he could even be Elly De La Cruz! Though at 5-foot-11 and 170 pounds, he does not have nearly the same physical tools as De La Cruz, he does have the skillset and rising stock to potentially get a trade conversation going. There are other 25-and-under players in their early or pre-arbitration years that will get the rumor mill going this winter — Taj Bradley, Zach Neto, and Eury Pérez should all have their tires kicked — but none offers the MVP-level upside of Henderson or De La Cruz. In Henderson’s case, a trade would be a classic change-of-scenery gambit in hopes of regaining his previous swing. With De La Cruz, the idea is that his most recent showing is not a mirage but a proof of concept that the former no. 1 prospect is actually that good. Either one would be a seismic move, but one that any team that’s serious about competing should eagerly explore.