Guardian Essential poll: One Nation and Labor’s primary vote on par as discontent with Albanese rises

One Nation’s primary vote is back on par with Labor in the latest Guardian Essential poll, with Anthony Albanese’s public disapproval rising to its equal highest on record and more Australians than ever before believing the country is on the wrong track.But Australians are still not convinced One Nation or the Coalition would do a better job than the current government, with Labor still the most trusted party on the economy and managing the country.“This is a sobering poll for Labor, but not a ringing endorsement of One Nation either,” Peter Lewis, the executive director of Essential Media, said.The Guardian Essential poll of 1,087 Australians, conducted last week, found Labor and One Nation neck and neck on 28% of the primary vote each. The Coalition is further back on 23%. Both conservative parties have improved their votes since last month, when One Nation was on 25% and the Coalition on 22%.The poll took place early last week, after the alleged attack on the respected independent MP Helen Haines.Labor lost a point from September’s 29%, coinciding with a further deterioration of Albanese’s personal approval ratings, and amid increasing scrutiny of the government’s handling of the economy, inflation and cost-of-living issues. Sign up for Guardian Australia’s Politics, really newsletter hereDisapproval of Albanese rose two points to 56%, the equal highest in Essential’s polling since he became prime minister in 2022. Albanese’s approval rating was 38%, also up one point, for a net approval of -18.Albanese’s disapproval has been this high only once before, in August, when his approval was even lower at 35%, for a net approval of -21 that month.The opposition leader, Angus Taylor, scored a 35% approval and 40% disapproval, for a net approval of -5 – a marked improvement since September, when his approval rating was just 31% and his disapproval 43%.The poll also showed a new high number of Australians saying they felt the nation was going in the wrong direction, adding to the midterm malaise for Labor. In October, 61% of respondents said they thought the country was on the wrong track, with just 25% believing it was on the right track.Essential’s “wrong track” number has been steadily increasing over Labor’s time in office, up from just 38% in May 2023. But it increased markedly between late last year, when it was 46% in October 2025, and early this year when it rose to 54% in January and has not dipped below 50% since.Voters are also quick to blame the government for economic and cost-of-living issues. Asked what was most responsible for the rising cost of living from a list of factors, 32% of voters nominated government spending as the top cause. That was far above global events such as the war in the Middle East (which 24% nominated as the top cause) and supermarket price gouging (19%).“The key markers are historic low levels for Labor midway through the term, but the electorate is clearly not settled on any viable alternative,” Lewis said.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotion“A key challenge is the perception that it’s local factors, rather than the global chaos emanating from the White House, which is to blame for cost-of-living pressure.”The poll asked Australians which party they trusted on key issues, and what voters thought One Nation could do if it won government. When voters were asked which party was trusted to “ensure the economy works in the interests of everyday Australians”, Labor led on 32%, followed by One Nation on 29% and the Coalition far back on 18%.Some 21% of voters said they didn’t see any difference.On which party was trusted to “manage the country generally”, Labor again led on 31%, with One Nation (25%) and the Coalition (23%) further back.Voters also gave their verdict on how One Nation would govern. While 43% of voters said they thought Pauline Hanson’s party would manage immigration better than current settings, 33% said they thought it would be worse. Only 20% of voters thought One Nation would handle relationships with trading partners such as the US and China better, with 39% believing it would do a worse job.One Nation also received mixed verdicts on how it would manage energy policy (29% of voters said better, 36% said worse), cost of groceries (27% better, 37% worse), managing a crisis like a pandemic (23% better, 41% worse) and management of the economy (29% better, 39% worse).