Greg McElroy reveals biggest 2026 ‘trap’ games for Top 12 College Football Playoff contenders

With the start of the upcoming college football season still six weeks away, ESPN analyst Greg McElroy has been analyzing and evaluating the 2026 schedules for many of the sport’s top programs. The former Alabama quarterback has already picked out which College Football Playoff contenders face the toughest road ahead, and which have a chance to sail through the regular season. Of course, every year there are games and results that seem to catch even the best teams by surprise — usually called “trap” games. These are games that often fall between much bigger and more prominent matchups on the schedule, when a team can occasionally get caught overlooking their usually lower-ranked opponent. And more times than not, these games often come on the road, creating a difficult situation for the ranked visitor that might already have its eyes on the next weekend’s rival. [ $19.99 gets you a FULL year of On3 | Rivals national coverage ] Look no further than preseason Top 10 Alabama‘s 31-17 season-opening loss at unranked Florida State last season, or SMU‘s 38-35 loss at Cal in last year’s regular-season finale that knocked the Mustangs out of ACC championship game — and CFP — contention. With those games still fresh in mind, McElroy identified the most likely “trap” game for each of the Top 12-leading Playoff contenders entering 2026 regular season on this week’s Always College Football podcast: Ohio State Buckeyes Trap game: at Iowa (Oct. 3) The Buckeyes will be a preseason Top 5 team, with potential to even open the season at No. 1. Of course, the Buckeyes’ schedule provides plenty of challenges, including difficult road games at Texas, Indiana and USC. But McElroy identified the early October showdown in Iowa City as the Buckeyes’ biggest “trap” game due to the natural inclination to overlook the Hawkeyes. Ohio State has won seven of its last eight games against Iowa since 2005, with the lone loss coming on the road at Iowa City back in 2017. McElroy: “Going to Kinnick Stadium, potentially at night, were ranked teams don’t get beaten as much as slowly digested. Iowa’s entire model is to turn it into a rock fight, make it 13-10, and hopefully it’s muddy. And if you’re walking in looking past it, you could very easily become this year’s cautionary tale.” Texas Longhorns Trap game: at Missouri (Nov. 7) After last season’s difficult losses at Ohio State and Florida, the Longhorns know a thing or two about falling flat on the road. But with both those teams coming to Austin in 2026, McElroy identified the early November game at Missouri as Texas’ biggest trap game. That particular game comes one week before a potential Top 10 showdown against LSU in Baton Rouge, which McElroy believes could create opportunity for the Tigers to catch the Horns slipping late in the regular season. McElroy: “Missouri has kind of quietly turned into an 8-10 win program almost every year. And Faurot Field, on what might be a cold November night, it s a really tough place where you could get caught peeking ahead (at LSU the following weekend).” Notre Dame Fighting Irish Trap game: at BYU (Oct. 17) As the Fighting Irish learned early last season, challenging road games against potential College Football Playoff contenders are not to be taken lightly. Last year’s season-opening loss at Miami ultimately ended up costing Notre Dame a Playoff spot at the end of the season. This year’s difficult road game occurs closer to the halfway point at BYU. As McElroy makes clear, the road trip to Provo will be challenging for a litany of reasons, including the fact that the Cougars could be battling for their own CFP bid. McElroy: “I think that road trip to BYU on Oct. 17 is a beast. … Out of nowhere you go play in Provo at altitude, to face a BYU team that went 12-2 (in 2025) at 4,600-feet above see level, where the air’s thin and the noise will be felt. This is one of the best venues in America.” Oregon Ducks Trap game: at Illinois (Oct. 24) The Ducks return a majority of its 2025 roster, including star QB Dante Moore, in its bid to become the Big Ten’s fourth different national champion in as many years. And while that mission starts with a difficult conference opener Sept. 26 at USC, McElroy points to Oregon’s next road game at Illinois as the real challenge. And with a crucial November stretch that begins at Ohio State and vs. Michigan in back-to-back weeks, the Ducks can’t afford to sleepwalk into Champaign in late October. McElroy: “It’s a real road game against a real team that’s two weeks before you play the Buckeyes, the exact spot where a Playoff resume springs into a quiet leak. So be careful for the Oregon Ducks when you go on the road to Champaign.” Georgia Bulldogs Trap game: at Arkansas (Sept. 19) The Bulldogs have won back-to-back SEC championships but haven’t been able to make it out of the CFP quarterfinals after two straight one-and-done Playoff appearances since winning it all in 2021 and 2022. And while Georgia has more challenging road games at Alabama and Ole Miss ahead on the schedule, McElroy believes the SEC opener in Fayetteville presents its own challenge, especially if the Bulldogs enter the game already looking ahead at the next week’s home game vs. Oklahoma. McElroy: “To open SEC play on the road, in a Razorback Stadium that becomes a bit of a blender when the sun goes down, it’s not so much about Arkansas, it’s about what comes to Athens the following week — Oklahoma. So this could be a scenario where there’s a little bit of a lookahead.” Indiana Hoosiers Trap game: at Nebraska (Oct. 10) The reigning Big Ten and national champion Hoosiers are coming off a magical 2025 where it became college football’s first 16-0 program in 130 years. But while the back half of Indiana’s 2026 slate includes likely ranked games against Ohio State, Michigan, USC and Washington, McElroy points to the Hoosiers’ Oct. 10 game in Lincoln as a potential stumbling block. It’s the second of back-to-back early October road games, and comes a week before the Buckeyes come to Bloomington for a likley Top 10 showdown. McElroy: “The defending national champs host Ohio State and travel to Michigan on back-to-back weekends later that month. But the week before all that, a trip to a sold-out Memorial Stadium in Lincoln where they’ve been waiting years for a game this big … (is) where they could get ambushed.” Miami Hurricanes Trap game: at North Carolina (Oct. 31) The Tar Heels enter the upcoming season as the overwhelming favorite to win the ACC and potentially make another deep Playoff run. But in order to accomplish all that, Miami must first navigate a schizophrenic ACC slate that never turns out as anticipated. That includes a Halloween road game at North Carolina, which McElroy suggests could prove challenging. While the Tar Heels are expected to struggle in Year 2 under Bill Belichick, don’t discount the six-time Super Bowl champion head coach. McElroy: “Miami goes to Chapel Hill on Halloween, the week before the season-defining trip to Notre Dame, (against) a North Carolina team that people are probably overlooking, plus a giant lookahead, plus a weird history, is how you maybe slip-up in a game you were supposed to win in convincing fashion.” Texas A&M Aggies Trap game: at South Carolina (Nov. 7) The Aggies are again a buzzy pick to make the Playoffs after cruising through the first 11 games of 2025 before a late-season collapse at Texas. The final month of the regular season hasn’t been kind to Texas A&M, with third-year coach Mike Elko entering 2026 with a 4-4 record in November. That history doesn’t bode well for the Aggies, which opens it on the road at South Carolina on Nov. 7. And with games at Oklahoma and the rival Longhorns looming, McElroy believes the Gamecocks could prove challenging. McElroy: “A November road trip to Columbia is probably a little bit easy to overlook, and that’s a terrible idea. … You know William-Brice (Stadium) will be absolutely as hostile as it gets — a house of horrors for so many people. This is a textbook definition of a very dangerous, potentially overlookable Saturday.” Oklahoma Sooners Trap game: at Florida (Nov. 7) The Sooners returned to the Playoffs last season due in large part to its strong play down the stretch, including sweeping early November road games at Tennessee and Alabama. But while there are more treacherous road games at Michigan and Georgia in September, McElroy circled Oklahoma’s Nov. 7 game in Gainesville as a potential stumbling block. And with likely Top 25 home games against fellow CFP contenders Ole Miss and Texas A&M ahead, the Sooners could get caught overlooking the Gators. McElroy: “Florida hired Jon Sumrall, who is amazing, to wake up a sleeping blueblood. The Swamp does not care that the Gators may still be in the rebuilding process. If Oklahoma looks ahead here, they will do so at their own peril. They need to be very careful when they travel to The Swamp.” Texas Tech Red Raiders Trap game: at Baylor (Nov. 21) The Red Raiders were villainized during this summer’s Brendan Sorsby fiasco, and now move on without their star $5 million transfer QB. Nevertheless, a friendly 2026 slate with no regular-season games against fellow Big 12 contender BYU could lull an undefeated Texas Tech into a sense of invulnerability down the stretch. And with back-to-back late November road games at Oklahoma State and Baylor, McElroy believes the Red Raiders could be primed to overlook the second of those Nov. 21 in Waco. McElroy: “The defending Big 12 champs are chasing that repeat, and the regular-season finale against TCU is sitting right there on the horizon. But first comes a second-straight road game in Waco against a Baylor team that will probably play the Red Raiders really tight.” Alabama Crimson Tide Trap game: at Vanderbilt (Nov. 14) For what feels like the first time in a generation, the Crimson Tide enter the upcoming 2026 season seemingly flying under the radar. Given the uncertainty, McElroy believes Alabama could be primed for a late-season face plant in Nashville, the same site of third-year coach Kalen DeBoer’s first career loss with the Tide back in 2024. It doesn’t help that Alabama will be coming off an always-challenging road game in Baton Rouge the week before, creating an easy overlooking opportunity vs. Vanderbilt. McElroy: “Alabama travels to Nashville the week after LSU to face the same Vanderbilt team that hung 40 on the Tide back in 2024. … Kalen DeBoer knows how important this game will be, and how precisely this movie can end because they’ve already lived through it one time before a couple years back.” Ole Miss Rebels Trap game: vs. Auburn (Oct. 31) Ole Miss fans are undoubtedly — and understandably — focused on the Rebels’ SEC opener Sept. 19 against LSU for the likely contentious return of former head coach Lane Kiffin. But once they’re through that game, McElroy circled Ole Miss’ home game against Auburn on Halloween as a potential slip-up opportunity. The Rebels will be coming off a road game at Texas with back-to-back SEC champ Georgia coming to Oxford the following week. The timing creates a true trick-or-treat opportunity for Ole Miss. McElroy: “It’s all about the spot on the calendar. Because the Rebels play Texas the week before, and they host Georgia the week after — two of the three biggest games on their schedule. And Auburn … is exactly the kind of team that can sneak up on a squad that’s staring at the giants on either side of that game.”