Government likely to miss 2030 housing target by more than 120,000 units

The Government is expected to miss its target of delivering 300,000 new homes by 2030 by more than 120,000 units, consulting firm Deloitte has warned.The company’s latest Crane Survey report suggested the Government would fall short by between 123,400 and 136,100 homes, largely because planning permissions were “not keeping pace”. The report, which tracks construction activity in the Republic, estimates that 40,000 new homes will be completed this year.“While this reflects a 10 per cent increase on 2025, it means 260,000 more homes are needed in the next four years to reach the 300,000 figure,” it said.READ MOREThe report highlighted several potential problems that could thwart the current momentum, including the high levels of planning permissions that lapse before construction commences and the time lag between planning permissions and construction.While 182,130 homes have been granted planning permission over the last five years, historical Central Bank data indicate that 25 to 32 per cent of planning permissions never commenced construction.“If we assume the same lapse ratio as the Central Bank analysis, this shortfall sits between 123,400 and 136,100 homes,” the report said. Although there is time between now and 2030 for more units to be granted planning permission, Deloitte noted there is typically a time lag between planning permission and construction commencing. [ Irish house prices rising 14% faster than incomes, or double EU averageOpens in new window ]“This means that the next 12-18 months will be critical to closing this gap,” it said.The Government’s housing plan has a goal of delivering 300,000 new homes by the end of 2030.Meeting this target would require completions to rise from around 36,000 last year to 50,000-60,000 annually.“The next 12-18 months are critical if Ireland is to avoid a substantial housing shortfall by 2030,” chief economist at Deloitte Ireland, Kate English, said.“Even though our Crane Survey estimates that completions are on course to reach their highest volume since 2008, the planning permission pipeline is less promising,” she said.“The high number of completions can also be attributed to the 2024 development levy waiver, which is due to expire this year,” English said.“To avail of it, construction must be completed by December 31st, 2026, and that will have driven completion figures until this point,” she added.British Ambassador to Ireland Kara Owen on current Anglo-Irish relations, trade opportunities, and the possibility of a Brexit reversalDeloitte’s report, which covers construction in multiple sectors, also highlighted a slowdown in the delivery of student accommodation.Just 365 purpose-built student accommodation (PBSA) bed spaces were completed in 2025 across two schemes. This marked a decline from almost 900 bed spaces in 2024 and was well below the 10-year annual average of 1,620, it said.The slowdown comes as Ireland’s third-level enrolments are anticipated to rise to 247,600 students in the academic year of 2033/34, up from 222,170 in 2025/26.A total of 2,400 PBSA bed spaces were under construction across 11 schemes at the close of the third quarter of this year, up from 1,400 bed spaces under construction in the first quarter of last year.In the hotel sector, it noted that while transaction volumes fell in the first half of 2026, following record activity levels in the previous two years, development activity remained “robust”.A total of 2,080 hotel rooms are expected to be added to the market this year, and 3,540 hotel rooms were under construction nationwide at the end of the third quarter of this year.Among the hotel rooms currently under construction, 1,250 rooms are expected to reach completion in the final quarter, including 470 at the Marriott Courtyard Inn on Dublin’s Abbey Street.Construction activity continues to be concentrated in Dublin, with the capital accounting for just under 2,800 rooms, which is 79 per cent of those under construction, it said.