Gordon D’Arcy: Forget rugby’s world rankings – Ireland don’t belong in the top three

When my dad caught me starting a sentence with “if only”, he’d cut me off immediately. It came to mind as I considered the implications of Ireland’s defeat to New Zealand in Auckland last Saturday.My reaction is more sanguine than most and I’ll explain my stance by first removing some of the ifs and buts, starting with the Luke Jacobson incident. I don’t agree that it was a yellow card, but I stopped myself from building an alternative universe, one where a red card and New Zealand being short-handed for 20 minutes might have enabled Ireland to take something from the game. –That is precisely the thinking my father warned against. Ireland lost by 19 points and conceded six tries. A red card doesn’t mitigate that discrepancy. I don’t believe Ireland would have won the game even with Jacobson gone. They were beaten by a better team playing rugby they couldn’t live with.The card is a genuine grievance, but it offers little in the way of consolation. The reality of this game is simpler, less flattering and far more useful to us. Forget the official rankings, which say Ireland are the third-best team in the world. In reality, Ireland are the world’s fourth-best team and the gap to the top three of New Zealand, South Africa and France has widened. READ MOREWe have now lost six in a row to that trio by 10 points or more. Uncomfortable as it is, it’s a fair summary of where we sit. I’d add that England, if properly coached, could also squeeze past Ireland.New Zealand didn’t take what many would have considered the easy option and build their attack around getting at Sam Prendergast in the defensive line. They simply imposed their own shape. Go wide, back through the middle, side to side, moving our defence to exactly where they wanted it.That is a very Kiwi kind of arrogance, in the best possible sense. In essence, it says “we’re not worried about what you do; we’ll play our game and you deal with it”. After 20 minutes, Ireland trailed 14-0 and it could have been much worse but for some excellent defensive sets.New Zealand are a team in transition in a new regime under Dave Rennie. They are not the finished article, yet they are still better than us. That is an illustration of the distance between the teams right now.Ruben Love was a standout performer for the All Blacks against Ireland at Eden Park in Auckland last Saturday. Photograph: Inpho/Photosport/Brett Phibbs New Zealand looked like a team fresh out of a preseason camp. They had a slick attack shape and there was real attention paid to catch-pass execution, while clever tempo shifts were on show between the passers and the strike runners. Players knew their roles while playing with freedom.Ruben Love kicked five from five and looked entirely at home at 10, forming a burgeoning halfback combination with Cam Roigard – the scrumhalf free to roam without endangering the ruck speed. Once the ball is ready to move, the priority is speed, not who passes it.Ireland’s credit rating remains good. At what do we excel? In a word, defence. We are seriously good in this area and it kept the All Blacks from routing us in the first half. Where do Ireland go from here? I thought the coaches did an excellent job at half-time for the third week in a row. They reorganised a rattled team while adjusting to how New Zealand attacked and how Nic Berry refereed the breakdown. This helped turn the third quarter into a real contest.Some of the commentary has fixated on our error count and our indiscipline, the implication being that if we just tidy those up, we’re right in the game. I’m not convinced. Most of those errors and penalties were the product of New Zealand pressure.In the past, when the All Blacks squeezed teams, it showed up as points on the board. This time, it showed up as us coughing up penalties and handling mistakes. Either way, for long stretches we were managing to hold New Zealand, not competing with them. The errors were a symptom of that, not the cause.You don’t fix that with a discipline meeting on the Monday. You fix it by closing the gap in the areas that let them apply that pressure in the first place. The set-piece was unreliable and that’s a generous assessment. You cannot go toe-to-toe with the best if you can’t guarantee your own ball. That must be addressed before the autumn.The tougher fix is our attack, which I think is underdeveloped. We are lagging behind the game’s genuine innovators. We are a smart side, we play what’s in front of us intelligently, but with an innate conservatism. There is more available to us than we’re taking.I don’t have the neat answer to how we unlock that potential. I’ll be honest about the other possibility too. It may be that what we’re getting from this Ireland team right now is already an over-performance.Stuart McCloskey is tackled during Ireland's defeat of Japan at McDonald Jones Stadium in Newcastle, Australia on July 11th. Photograph: Ben Brady/Inpho Beat Australia, muddle past Japan, compete for an hour with New Zealand. Rewrite a couple of those results and the picture reads differently again. It’s an unknown that I can’t resolve, and I’d rather admit it than pretend I can.Now the encouraging part, and the reason the negativity puzzles me. This tour gave us a brief glimpse of the next players up. Some new faces were exposed to Test rugby, crept into contention and returned home with experience banked.For a country with our playing numbers, it isn’t a disaster when we find ourselves forced to drill down the pecking order. Depth isn’t about a pen, paper and a list of names. It’s a living, breathing exam sat in places like Eden Park.Where are Ireland today? There was a time we oscillated wildly, number one or two in the world, then sliding to fourth, fifth or sixth, losing games we’d no business losing. This current run is not that. The idea that we must march in lockstep with the top three in every fixture is unrealistic.We can be the fourth best team in the world – not our paper ranking of three – and pick off our rivals above on a given day. We could even lift silverware when a tournament breaks our way. That isn’t settling. That’s knowing yourself, which, as my father might have added, is worth more than a drawer full of ifs and buts.Auckland was chastening but the mood is robust. November will loom into view nicely. Ireland host Argentina, Fiji and South Africa, before the Nations Championship finals weekend at Twickenham, where each side meets its opposite number from the other hemisphere.Home advantage, a familiar autumn rhythm and potentially another crack at the world-champion Springboks. That’s not a consolation; it’s the fixture you want. Frontline names restored, Ireland will be a very different proposition to a depleted team in Eden Park in July.November won’t be long coming around. Fit and focused, Ireland will be ready to go again. Maybe with fresh ideas and personnel. What’s not to like?