GOP redistricting scheme goes awry

Abbott, in spring 2025, was gearing up for another reelection bid, having first won the governorship in 2014. Per reporting at the time, Abbott balked when President Donald Trump’s political team asked him and Republican lawmakers, who controlled both legislative chambers in Austin, to redraw the Texas congressional map. MAGA political operatives aimed to boost the Texas Republican delegation in the House from 25-13 over Democrats to a whopping 30-8.The goal was to make Texas and other Republican-controlled states GOP political sandbags against a blue wave of undetermined size, basically the norm in midterm elections, with the president’s party suffering congressional losses of varying levels. The idea went beyond Texas, with the goal of redrawing House maps to favor Republicans in a swath of states. When Abbott showed hesitancy, raising concerns about spreading conservative voters too thin among new districts, the Trump political operation effectively strong-armed him, capped with a Godfather-like phone call from the president himself, who made a political offer the governor couldn’t refuse.Gov.-elect Gina Hinojosa (D-TX) and Sen.-elect James Talarico (D-TX) hold a Nov. 2 campaign rally in Austin, Texas. (Eric Gay/AP) But a year-and-a-half or so later, the Texas Republican redistricting scheme backfired, big time. With votes still being counted in several districts, it looks like GOP candidates lost four of the five seats their new congressional map was designed to flip. In addition, two more incumbent House Republicans lost, even though their old districts remained largely intact.Abbott himself proved political collateral damage. He lost reelection to Democratic state Rep. Gina Hinojosa, who will be the first Democratic governor of Texas in 32 years. It’s a political lifespan that has seen Republicans dominate Texas politics, giving what turned out to be false hope ahead of the 2026 midterm elections. On Nov. 3, Republicans lost a slew of statewide offices, led by the open-seat victory of Sen.-elect James Talarico (D-TX), a state legislator. Plus, Democrats won a majority in the state House for the first time since the dawn of the 21st century.The redistricting-induced losses of Texas Republicans might not be the worst outcome based on a map redraw. Several Republican House members in North Carolina are in tight races and could still lose — all part of what’s turning out to be a growing Democratic majority, which could reach upward of 260 seats in the 435-member chamber.Gov. Greg Abbott (R-TX) hugs his wife Cecilia (top) and daughter Audrey (right) as he speaks to supporters at a Nov. 3 Election Night event in Austin, Texas. (David J. Phillip/AP) Precisely how many House seats either party won or lost in the 2025-26 redistricting wars can’t be quantified. There are too many political variables. For instance, before Texas made the first move, some states were already in the midst of protracted redistricting fights, such as Ohio and Utah. In other GOP-led states, Democrats played excellent defense, keeping the Alabama House map as is and picking up a seat in Missouri.And amid the political hand-to-hand combat of the recent redistricting wars, the Supreme Court’s April 29 Louisiana v. Callais decision fundamentally altered the legal and practical landscape of redistricting and civil rights law. The Callais decision led Republicans in several Southern legislatures to redraw House maps in seemingly more GOP-friendly manners.With the complete redistricting picture still somewhat fuzzy, here’s the political upshot in each state to date.Alabama After the Callais decision, Alabama Republicans redrew their state’s House map with the aim of growing its GOP edge from 5-2. That didn’t work, as freshman Rep. Shomari Figures (D-AL) beat state Rep. Rhett Marques, even though, in 2024, voters there would have backed Trump over Democratic rival Kamala Harris 56.8%-42.4%. Alabama’s House delegation will keep its strong but not overwhelming Republican edge.California House Democrats appear to have not just struck redistricting gold, but a political motherlode.The five new seats won by Democrats flow directly from California’s redistricting response to Texas. It was established through Proposition 50, which California voters approved with 64.4% support on Nov. 4, 2025. The measure temporarily bypasses California’s independent Citizens Redistricting Commission to enact a legislatively drawn congressional map for the 2026–2030 election cycles.In the state’s newly configured 1st Congressional District, Democratic candidate Mike McGuire, a former state Senate president, beat Rep. James Gallagher (R-CA). The Democratic gerrymander worked as planned in this sprawling California district, previously set in the state’s deep-red but sparsely populated northeast realm. The new map added a swath of dark-blue cities and towns in the outer Bay Area, flipping it from a safe Trump seat in 2024 to one where Harris would have prevailed 54.5%-42.3%.Somewhat to the south, Rep. Kevin Kiley (I-CA) lost to former state Sen. Richard Pan, a Democrat, in the new 6th Congressional District, encompassing the northern Sacramento suburbs and Roseville. Elected as a Republican in 2022, Kiley became an independent in March, distancing himself from House GOP leadership to the extent possible.But in a district where voters backed Harris over Trump 53.3%-42.2%, combined with the 2026 Democratic wave, Kiley was always an underdog against Pan, a doctor who gained public notice beyond the political world when, during the COVID-19 pandemic, he advocated widespread masking measures.In the battle royale of California redistricting, Rep. David Valadao (R-CA) lost against Democratic candidate Randy Villegas. The 22nd Congressional District, based in the Central Valley, including parts of 423,000-person Bakersfield, would have backed Trump over Harris 49.6%-47.7%.Democratic map-drawers made a more sure bet with the new 40th Congressional District, covering a swath of conservative territory east of Los Angeles. After the June all-party primary, a Republican loss was a certainty. The only question was which House GOP incumbent would be sent packing: Rep. Ken Calvert (R-CA) or Rep. Young Kim (R-CA). Calvert was leading handily as ballots arriving after Election Day, but postmarked by then, poured in.Calvert and Kim had won the top two spots in the primary and, despite being colleagues, engaged in a fierce fight over who would best represent the eastern Orange County and western Riverside district. For Democrats, that was an automatic victory of sorts because it meant one fewer House Republican.A drive through the desert south, in the 48th Congressional District, San Diego Councilwoman Marni von Wilpert, a Democrat, beat San Diego County Supervisor Jim Desmond, a Republican.This was largely preordained since earlier in the election cycle, when Democratic redistricting was enough to drive Rep. Darrell Issa (R-CA) from office for a second time. During a House career that began in 2001, Issa has long tussled with Democrats, most notably as the House oversight committee chairman from 2011 to 2015. In 2018, Issa, rightly sensing a Democratic wave, didn’t seek reelection for what was then a coastal northern San Diego and southern Orange County district that had grown from its GOP roots to a more politically competitive battleground.Issa returned to the House in the 2020 elections, winning a reliably Republican seat covering inland San Diego County. But under the Proposition 50 redistricting map, Issa’s only real choice was to run in the new 48th Congressional District, covering areas of San Diego and Riverside counties that are blue-leaning. Voters there would have backed Harris over Trump 50.4%-47%.Florida The Florida House delegation looks like it will stay at 20-8 in favor of Republicans. Considering the broader GOP losses due to redistricting plans, this might be the best possible outcome under the circumstances.Still, some district lines were significantly rearranged. Put another way, individual political jigsaw pieces have changed, but they add up to the same complete image as before.Reps. Jared Moskowitz (D-FL), Kathy Castor (D-FL), and Democrat Pia Dandiya won three of the four red seats where, in 2024, voters would have backed Trump by between 9 and 11 points. Rep. Darren Soto (D-FL) clings to a narrow lead with more than 99% of the vote counted in a central Florida district Trump won by 18 points.Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-FL) held on to win, and three GOP-held seats are close, though Republicans will likely hold all of them: those of Reps. Mario Diaz-Balart (R-FL), Maria Elvira Salazar (R-FL), and the open 7th Congressional District.Indiana Trump’s political team wanted Republican lawmakers in Indianapolis to redraw the House map, boosting it from a strong 7-2 advantage over Democrats to a 9-0 shutout. Republican state senators refused, and several lost their seats against Trump-backed primary opponents.Still, this may have been a blessing in disguise for Indiana Republicans. Rep. Victoria Spartz (R-IN) lost reelection under the existing map. The political bloodshed could have been worse for Indiana Republicans had they tried to stretch House district lines even further.Louisiana The state at the center of the Supreme Court’s Callais decision is likely to grow its Republican House edge from 4-2 to 5-1. Two races will feature Dec. 12 runoffs: Louisiana’s 5th and 6th districts, with GOP candidates favored to win.Missouri Democrats won a fierce redistricting fight and even added a seat. Missouri’s House delegation went from a 6-2 Republican edge to 5-3 despite GOP efforts to dominate it 7-1. The biggest winner was Rep. Emanuel Cleaver (D-MO), first elected in 2004 and now positioned to stay in the House for a good while — though he’s 82. Meanwhile, Rep. Ann Wagner (R-MO) lost a redrawn St. Louis-area seat.Missouri courts not only blunted Republican efforts to redraw maps in their favor. On Nov. 3, Show Me State voters, in a statewide ballot measure, rejected the congressional map that would give the GOP a 7-1 edge.North Carolina In a possibly serious GOP redistricting misfire, North Carolina’s congressional delegation could swing from a 10-4 GOP advantage to a Democratic one of the same margin. The change may not be that dramatic, but it will still be notably negative for Republicans.Rep.-elect Jamie Ager (D-NC) flipped North Carolina’s open 11th District. Rep. Don Davis (D-NC) won by 3 points in his redrawn district, covering the state’s northeast region.Reps. Tim Moore (R-NC), Brad Knott (R-NC), Addison McDowell (R-NC), and Richard Hudson (R-NC), the chairman of the House Republican campaign arm, all lost reelection.Several GOP-held seats are too close to call even with more than 99% of the vote in. Democrat Chuck Hubbard leads against Reps. Virginia Foxx (R-NC). Meanwhile, Reps. Pat Harrigan (R-NC), Mark Harris (R-NC), Greg Murphy (R-NC), and David Rouzer (R-NC) cling to narrow leads.Ohio Redistricting battles in Ohio have spanned nearly the past 11 years, going back to a 2015 state ballot initiative passed by voters aimed at drawing impartial House districts. Voters supported a similar measure in 2018, but state Republicans used loopholes in the ballot measures’ language and other procedural tricks to keep House districts favoring GOP candidates. On Election Day, Ohio Republicans had a 10-5 advantage.But the 2026 political climate was terrible for Republicans in Ohio. Gov.-elect Amy Acton (D-OH) will become the state’s first Democratic chief executive in nearly 20 years, while former Sen. Sherrod Brown, a Democrat, staged a successful comeback attempt.Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-OH) survived the latest GOP attempt to end a House career that began in 1983. Reps. Mike Carey (R-OH), Max Miller (R-OH), and Mike Turner (R-OH) all lost.Tennessee Tennessee Republicans sought to make their state’s House map 9-0 Republican, from its current 8-1 position. Republicans will get a pickup, with state Sen. Brent Taylor prevailing narrowly in the Memphis-based 9th Congressional District.But in Tennessee’s 4th Congressional District, Rep. Scott DesJarlais (R-TN) trails Democratic nominee Victoria Broderick by 270 votes with nearly all of the results in. DesJarlais saw his district drop from a Trump plus-44 to a still-commanding Trump plus-24.Texas In the state that kicked off the 2025-26 redistricting wars, Reps. Vicente Gonzalez (D-TX), Henry Cuellar (D-TX), and a Democratic newcomer, Johnny Garcia, a police officer, held on to three redrawn seats. And in the Houston-area 9th Congressional District, which backed Trump by more than 20 points, Republican Alex Mealer lost to Democrat Leticia Gutierrez.In addition, Democratic Tejano singer Bobby Pulido ousted Rep. Monica De La Cruz (R-TX) in the Rio Grande Valley. And Democrat Katy Padilla Stout beat Republican Brandon Herrera in a newly drawn district spanning hundreds of miles of the U.S.-Mexico border.The only Republican pickup among the five newly drawn seats in Texas was Jace Yarbrough in the Dallas-area 32nd Congressional District.Utah Utah’s House map is going from a 4-0 Republican shutout to a 3-1 edge over Democrats, with Rep.-elect Ben McAdams (D-UT) on his way back to Congress after being a representative for a single two-year term from 2019 to 2021.This wasn’t, strictly speaking, a 2026 Democratic redistricting win. But it has the same practical effect amid the national 2025-26 redistricting wars.Partisan battles over House maps have played out since 2018, when Utah voters narrowly passed a ballot measure mandating nonpartisan redistricting. Starting with the 2020 elections, Utah Republicans, who dominated the legislature in one of the nation’s reddest states, effectively ignored the voter redistricting mandate. That year, McAdams lost to Rep. Burgess Owens (R-UT) in a politically competitive Salt Lake City-area House seat.The GOP gerrymander held through the 2022 elections, even as a series of lawsuits brought by Democrats and outside groups wound through state and federal courts. Finally, in early 2026, a state district court judge ruled in Democrats’ favor, and Utah Republicans lost appeals going all the way up to the Supreme Court.A plaintiff-submitted alternative, given a political blessing by the Utah Supreme Court and a federal three-judge panel, turned the swing district into a Salt Lake City-based blue bastion. The new 1st Congressional District would have supported Harris over Trump by a whopping 60%-37% margin, setting up a navy-blue Utah congressional island surrounded by dark-red neighbors.Owens chose to retire from the House, and the only question was which Democratic candidate would claim the party’s primary prize. McAdams, a former Salt Lake County mayor and ex-state senator, prevailed in the crowded primary and easily won the Nov. 3 general election.Virginia It now seems like ancient political history, but House Democrats suffered arguably their biggest redistricting blow in a map that never came before voters. On May 8, the Supreme Court of Virginia struck down a Democratic-backed congressional redistricting plan that would have allowed a mid-decade redrawing of the state’s 11 House districts.READ THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER’S COVERAGE OF THE 2026 MIDTERM ELECTIONSThe map aimed to transform Democrats’ current 6-5 edge in the Old Dominion’s House delegation into a 10-1 romp. So, the state’s high court decision, at the time, seemed to be a serious setback to Democratic counter-redistricting efforts.Still, Virginia Democrats made out pretty well on Election Day. Former Rep. Elaine Luria beat Rep. Jen Kiggans (R-VA), vanquishing a 2022 loss between the same opponents. Rep. Rob Wittman (R-VA) lost in a Richmond-area district to Democrat Shannon Taylor, and Rep. John McGuire (R-VA) narrowly won his race against former Democratic Rep. Tom Perriello.David Mark (@DavidMarkDC) is the managing editor of the Washington Examiner magazine.