GOP loss culprit? Trump dismal approval ratings track gas prices almost 1-for-1

Historically high gasoline prices appear to have doomed the Republican Party in the midterm elections by driving down President Donald Trump’s plummeting approval rating.Since the end of February, when the global energy disruptions caused by the war in Iran began, the drop in Trump’s approval ratings has been strongly correlated with rising gas prices.A Washington Examiner review of gasoline price data from the Energy Information Administration and net-approval ratings tracked by On Point Politics between February and November found a very strong negative correlation between the two trends. This suggests that the more Americans paid for gasoline, the worse Trump’s approval ratings suffered. For example, on March 2, gas prices sat at about $3.02 per gallon. That same day, the president’s net approval rating dropped to -14.30, a steep drop from -6 a month before.By mid-May, gas prices jumped to $4.49 per gallon, and Trump’s approval rating plummeted to -17.50.On the news of the signing of the first ceasefire between the United States and Iran in late June, gasoline prices dropped to around $3.83 per gallon. Approval for Trump also ticked up.By mid-to-late September, however, as gasoline prices soared to $4.48 a gallon, Trump’s approval fell sharply, dropping to around -20.90 points.The biggest drivers behind the higher fuel prices have been oil and oil product supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, which had 20% of global trade traveling through before the war, as well as a loss of refining capacity worldwide.Soaring prices at the pump quickly became a hallmark of this year’s midterm elections, as the average cost of gasoline and diesel has remained less than $1 away from record highs.As of Wednesday, the average price of gasoline was $4.12 per gallon, and the average national cost of diesel was $6.27 per gallon, according to AAA.The Trump administration has attempted to brush off concerns, insisting that prices will come down as soon as the war in Iran ends. Trump officials have also repeatedly pointed to the fact that the highest-ever fuel prices were recorded under the Biden administration.GAS PRICES IN TRUMP’S SECOND TERM HIT RECORD HIGH FOR ANY PRESIDENCYHowever, as the polls opened on Tuesday, data released by the Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration revealed that the average price of gasoline for Trump’s second term had reached the highest of any presidential administration.For Trump’s second term, the nationwide average price of a gallon of regular gas exceeded $3.46 a gallon, just beating the mark of $3.457 for President Joe Biden, according to weekly figures updated by the EIA.