GOP defections from Trump start to pile up: From the Politics Desk

Welcome to From the Politics Desk, a daily newsletter that brings you the NBC News Politics team’s latest reporting and analysis from the White House, Capitol Hill and the campaign trail.In today’s edition, we round up the latest examples of GOP candidates breaking with President Donald Trump. Plus, Natasha Korecki examines Republicans’ messaging strategy in Texas. — Adam WollnerGOP defections from Trump start to pile upBy Adam WollnerDuring his address to the United Nations General Assembly today, President Donald Trump reiterated that he thinks he will be able to strike a deal with Iran to end the war after the November midterms. “I believe we’ll make a deal right after the election because it doesn’t make sense for them not to,” Trump said. “They’re waiting to see how I do in the midterm election.”Republicans who are on the ballot this fall increasingly would like to see that happen much sooner.Over the past 36 hours, three GOP candidates in competitive races have called for the Iran war to come to an end, tying it to the economic pressure voters are under.Rep. Ashley Hinson, who is running for Senate in Iowa, called yesterday morning for an “immediate end” to the conflict, even though she has voted against several resolutions in the House that would have restricted Trump’s ability to wage the war. Last week, two of her fellow Iowa Republicans, Reps. Zach Nunn and Mariannette Miller-Meeks, voted for the first time in favor of an Iran war powers resolution ahead of their re-election contests in battleground districts.Several hours later yesterday, former Rep. Mike Rogers, the Republican nominee in Michigan’s Senate race, released a video on social media saying that “the war with Iran needs to end and end quickly.”And today, another Michigan Republican, gubernatorial candidate John James, said during a news conference that “we need to end this war quickly,” according to The Detroit News. Like Hinson, James, a congressman, has repeatedly voted against the resolutions in the House directing Trump to halt the war. These pivots come amid deepening voter frustration with the war and the state of the economy. According to the new national NBC News poll, 55% of registered voters said they believe Trump’s policies have hurt the economy, and 62% said the military action in Iran has not been worth it.Moreover, 57% of voters said supporting the Iran war would make them less likely to vote for a candidate, compared with 24% who said it would make them more likely. As the midterms near, Republicans are breaking with Trump on more than just the Iran war. As we noted last week, Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar, R-Fla., released an ad criticizing the president’s deportation agenda. Elsewhere in Florida, Republican candidate for governor Byron Donalds removed most references to Trump on his campaign website. And Sen. John Curtis, R-Utah, called for an investigation into the business dealings of Donald Trump Jr. (as well as Hunter Biden) following the revelation that a Russian oligarch paid for the president’s son’s post-wedding festivities in the Caribbean.🎤 Related: Trump’s focus on the press distracts Republicans from pocketbook issues ahead of Election Day, by Peter Nicholas, Yamiche Alcindor, Garrett Haake and Julie TsirkinRepublicans search for a messaging balance in TexasAnalysis by Natasha KoreckiIn interviews, focus groups and polls, there’s little doubt voters’ minds are squarely on the economy these days. It’s no different in Texas, where a pivotal Senate race between Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton and Democratic state Rep. James Talarico could help determine the balance of power in Congress.But GOP ads in the state have so far focused in large part on an anti-transgender message, an attempt to revitalize the party’s 2024 strategy. In our interviews with Republican strategists over the last week, there was some divide on how much to emphasize transgender issues in the midst of economic strain. One said that spending on trans-related messaging was a waste of money. “If it ain’t about the economy, don’t say it,” said the strategist, who was not authorized to comment publicly on the race. A new NBC5 Dallas/Telemundo Station Group poll bears that out. Among likely Texas voters, 6% said abortion and trans rights ranked as their most important issue. The economy dominated concerns: 47% said either the economy and jobs or inflation and the cost of living were the most influential factors in how they would vote in November, followed by immigration.Still, Texas Republicans are leaning on anti-trans messaging. The Paxton campaign put out a news release today headlined: “Highlighting James Talarico’s Favorite Drag Queen.” Digital ads from Elon Musk’s America PAC have focused on transgender issues. And a super PAC tied to the Senate Leadership Fund launched an ad saying Talarico is “for they/them not you,” in which he is featured saying he is in the fight for transgender kids every day. So why highlight transgender issues when they’re not a top voter concern? Democrats would say it’s pure deflection as President Donald Trump’s approval rating sinks as an unpopular Iran war persists and grocery and gas prices soar. But recall that it was Talarico’s background as a seminarian and his unique ability to talk about God as a Democrat that pushed his national rise. Repeated GOP messaging calling him “woke,” “radical” and “weird” goes toward undermining that image. Our sources also tell us there is so much Republican money flooding in that they can afford to hit Talarico from all sides. For instance, the Lone Star Liberty PAC, which so far announced $15 million in spending, has ads that mention China and taxes. Then there are those Republicans who have a more simple reason. Terry Schilling, who runs the American Principles Project, a conservative group that focuses on social issues, contended its messaging on transgender policies was moving soft Democrats to Paxton, saying: “These issues still work.” 🗞️ Today's other top stories🚫 Media ban: During an interview on NBC’s “TODAY,” Secretary of State Marco Rubio defended Trump’s decision to ban three media organizations from covering the White House, arguing there aren’t “soldiers kicking down the doors” of the outlets. Read more →🩺 Coverage canceled: The Trump administration announced it was cutting Affordable Care Act coverage for 750,000 people it says were “fraudulently” enrolled. Read more →🤖 New frontiers: Allan Smith digs into how Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro went from touting the benefits of data centers to touting his role protecting communities from them. Read more →📊 Data Dive: In the latest edition of his newsletter, Steve Kornacki explores why Democrats are feeling optimistic about their chances of flipping a Senate seat in Ohio. Read more →That’s all From the Politics Desk for now. Today’s newsletter was compiled by Adam Wollner.If you have feedback — likes or dislikes — email us at politicsnewsletter@nbcuni.comAnd if you’re a fan, please share with everyone and anyone. They can sign up here.