Google earnings live updates: Alphabet's AI outlook, cloud growth in focus

Google parent Alphabet reports fiscal second-quarter results after the bell. Here's what analysts are expecting, according to LSEG.Earnings per share: $2.89Revenue: $116.9 billion estimatedGoogle's earnings mark the first major test this earnings season for the ballooning capital expenditures trade fueling the artificial intelligence revolution.In recent months, technology giants have poured billions into building new data center infrastructure to keep pace with skyrocketing demand for compute. But those massive investments have started to raise questions over the sustainability of long-term demand. Consensus estimates from FactSet expect $187.1 billion in capex this year for Alphabet. Google's AI pipeline is also top of mind for investors after the company reportedly delayed the launch timeline for its flagship Gemini 3.5 Pro AI model. On Tuesday, the company debuted three cheaper Gemini models, including a cyber model geared to tackle cybersecurity concerns with the rise of highly capable models like Anthropic's Mythos.Investors want to see how the company's models compare to frontier model makers such as Anthropic and OpenAI, especially as businesses clamp down on rising token costs and competition rises from cheaper Chinese models.Google's search business is expected to hit $63.4 billion from $54.19 billion last year, according to StreetAccount. YouTube advertising revenue and cloud are estimated to reach $10.8 billion and $22.3 billion, respectively, from $9.8 billion and $13.62 billion a year ago.Google's cloud business has posted robust growth in recent quarters and investors will want to see if it can keep up the pace and gain on Microsoft's Azure and Amazon Web Services. Stock Chart IconStock chart iconAlphabet GOOGL stock chartWhat you need to know:Alphabet's conference call with analysts is scheduled for 4:30 p.m. ET.Google Cloud is expected to grow 64% from a year ago to $22.24 billionThe company raised 2026 capex guidance last quarter and any update will be notable.CNBC's reporters are covering Alphabet earnings from bureaus in San Francisco and Englewood Cliffs, New Jersey.Google releases new Gemini models that are cheaper than frontier rivalsGoogle is trying to keep up with OpenAI and Anthropic with its cutting-edge Gemini AI models, while also offering models at prices that recognize a more frugal approach to AI spending. On Tuesday, the company released three new Gemini models, including its clearest answer yet to Anthropic's lead in cybersecurity. Gemini 3.5 Flash Cyber is designed to detect and patch software vulnerabilities and will initially be available only to governments and trusted partners through a limited-access pilot. Google said the specialized model runs at a lower price per token than larger models.With Gemini 3.6 Flash, Google aims to bolster its coding assistant technology while using up to 17% fewer tokens and offering a lower price per token than the previous model. The pricing war in AI is heating up as demand soars for open-source models, largely out of China. The hottest recent example is Moonshot AI's Kimi K3.— MacKenzie SigalosGoogle stock headed for third straight losing month on AI concernsGemini AI signage during the Google I/O Developers Conference in Mountain View, California, US, on Tuesday, May 19, 2026. David Paul Morris | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesGoogle's stock is on pace for a third straight month as the company heads into the second-quarter print on mounting AI skepticism.Shares are up 11% for the year but have dropped 1% in May, 6% in June and are pacing for a nearly 3% loss in July.That puts the company behind Apple and Nvidia for the year.Google's stock drop comes as skepticism swirls over skyrocketing artificial intelligence spending and businesses pour billions into the infrastructure buildout.— Samantha SubinWhat about spending in 2027?Signage at the Google Midlothian Data Center in Midlothian, Texas, US, on Friday, Nov. 14, 2025.Jonathan Johnson | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesInvestors shouldn't expect Alphabet's epic spending spree to change course next year.Finance chief Anat Ashkenazi said in April that 2027 capex is likely to "significantly increase" from the up to $190 billion planned for this year.Evercore analysts wrote in a note over the weekend that "when the CFO warns about following year capex in the March Quarter, the plans are going to be aggressive." The Evercore analysts then — jokingly — asked if the number could hit "$300B? $350B?!"Ultimately, they settled on an estimate of $262 billion, and noted that they're concerned "that capex spend could ramp higher than this." The consensus estimate for Alphabet's 2027 capex is about $257 billion, according to FactSet.— Jonathan VanianYouTube ad revenue growth set to slow as user base expands past 3 billionSopa Images | Lightrocket | Getty ImagesAnalysts expect YouTube's advertising revenue growth to ease up as the video engine reaches greater scale.The unit should contribute $10.81 billion in revenue, which would imply roughly 10% growth from a year earlier, decelerating from 11% expansion in the first quarter.In May, at the I/O developer conference, Google said YouTube had reached 3 billion users, alongside the company's search engine, Gmail, Chrome and Android. The milestone makes the site an increasingly compelling destination for advertisers. Meta had 3.56 billion "daily active people" across its apps in the first quarter. Evercore ISI analysts came away with a favorable assessment of YouTube's stature following a June survey. In a note to clients on Sunday, they pointed to relatively attractive advertising costs and "linear TV leakage." —Jordan NovetGoogle's cloud growth is outpacing rivalsThe Google Cloud logo is displayed on a high-definition digital monolith at the entrance of the Google pavilion during the Mobile World Congress in Barcelona, Spain, on March 5, 2026.Joan Cros | Nurphoto | Getty ImagesGoogle is trailing Amazon and Microsoft in cloud computing, but it's been growing faster. Second-quarter revenue in Alphabet's Google Cloud unit, which includes infrastructure and Google Workspace productivity subscriptions, is expected to show 64% growth from a year earlier to $22.24 billion, according to StreetAccount.That's an acceleration from 63% expansion in the first quarter, which topped market leader Amazon Web Services' 28% growth. At Microsoft, revenue from Azure and other cloud services increased 40%.Large companies are running more apps on Google's cloud, incorporating the company's AI models, CEO Sundar Pichai said on the last earnings call in April. Additionally, the Gemini Enterprise assistant for corporate workers, which starts at $21 per person per month, is gaining traction, he said.Demand for Google's tensor processing units, or TPUs, is also ramping at AI labs. In April, Google touted a cloud TPU for training AI models and one that handles inference jobs.The $29.5 billion acquisition earlier this year of cloud security company Wiz is also boosting cloud growth. Google is seeing so much demand that it inked a deal in June with Elon Musk's SpaceX, agreeing to pay $920 million a month for AI compute capacity. — Jordan NovetWall Street is focused on AI spendingA general view of the Google Midlothian Data Center on Nov. 14, 2025 in Midlothian, Texas.Ron Jenkins | Getty ImagesAlphabet and its hyperscaler peers are spending boatloads of money on massive data center and related computing projects, and investors are paying close attention. That puts a particular focus on Alphabet's capital expenditures, or capex, which has been skyrocketing in recent quarters. In April, the company raised its 2026 capex guidance to between $180 billion and $190 billion, up from $175 billion to $185 billion.The consensus estimate for Alphabet's 2026 capex is $187.1 billion, according to FactSet. Among the web giants, Amazon is the only one expected to spend more, with analysts projecting capex of $200 billion, in line with the company's forecast. — Jonathan Vanian