Goldman Says Brent Could Top $120 If Hormuz Disruptions Persist

Skip to Content News Archives Economy Energy Oil & Gas Renewables Electric Vehicles Mining Commodities Agriculture Real Estate Mortgages Mortgage Rates Finance Banking Insurance Fintech Cryptocurrency Work Wealth Smart Money Wealth Management Investor Personal Finance Family Finance Retirement Taxes High Net Worth FP Comment Executive Women Puzzmo Newsletters Financial Times Business Essentials More Innovation Information Technology FP500 Podcasts Small Business Lives Told Tails Told Shopping Financial Post Store Obituaries Place a Notice Advertising Advertising With Us Advertising Solutions Postmedia Ad Manager Sponsorship Requests Classifieds Place a Classifieds ad Working Profile Settings My Subscriptions Saved Articles My Offers Newsletters Customer Service FAQ News Economy Energy Mining Real Estate Finance Work Wealth Investor FP Comment Executive Women Puzzmo Newsletters Financial Times Business Essentials This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below.HomePMN BusinessGoldman Says Brent Could Top $120 If Hormuz Disruptions PersistBrent could rally to more than $120 a barrel by the fourth quarter if disruptions of the Strait of Hormuz persist, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc., although that’s not the bank’s base case.Author of the article:Last updated 6 minutes ago You can save this article by registering for free here. Or sign-in if you have an account.(Bloomberg) — Brent could rally to more than $120 a barrel by the fourth quarter if disruptions of the Strait of Hormuz persist, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc., although that’s not the bank’s base case.THIS CONTENT IS RESERVED FOR SUBSCRIBERS ONLYSubscribe now to read the latest news in your city and across Canada.Exclusive articles from Barbara Shecter, Joe O'Connor, Gabriel Friedman, and others.Daily content from Financial Times, the world's leading global business publication.Unlimited online access to read articles from Financial Post, National Post and 15 news sites across Canada with one account.National Post ePaper, an electronic replica of the print edition to view on any device, share and comment on.Daily puzzles, including the New York Times Crossword.SUBSCRIBE TO UNLOCK MORE ARTICLESSubscribe now to read the latest news in your city and across Canada.Exclusive articles from Barbara Shecter, Joe O'Connor, Gabriel Friedman and others.Daily content from Financial Times, the world's leading global business publication.Unlimited online access to read articles from Financial Post, National Post and 15 news sites across Canada with one account.National Post ePaper, an electronic replica of the print edition to view on any device, share and comment on.Daily puzzles, including the New York Times Crossword.REGISTER / SIGN IN TO UNLOCK MORE ARTICLESCreate an account or sign in to continue with your reading experience.Access articles from across Canada with one account.Share your thoughts and join the conversation in the comments.Enjoy additional articles per month.Get email updates from your favourite authors.THIS ARTICLE IS FREE TO READ REGISTER TO UNLOCK.Create an account or sign in to continue with your reading experience.Access articles from across Canada with one accountShare your thoughts and join the conversation in the commentsEnjoy additional articles per monthGet email updates from your favourite authorsSign In or Create an Account“Escalation in the Middle East and the decline in estimated Persian Gulf flows to below 45% of pre-war levels have pushed oil prices back up,” analysts including Daan Struyven said in a July 20 note.At present, Goldman sees Brent at $80 a barrel in the fourth quarter, and $75 next year, predicated on a de-escalation of tensions in the Middle East. Still, the risks to the forecasts are “tilted to the upside” given shipping disruptions in Hormuz, as well as potentially in the Red Sea, the analysts said.Global energy markets have been jolted this month — with Brent surging back above $91 a barrel — on renewed fighting between the US and Iran, as well as a threat by Tehran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen to blockade shipments from Saudi Arabia. Those flows via the Red Sea have been critical in allowing disrupted Persian Gulf crude cargoes to reach customers.Get the latest headlines, breaking news and columns.By signing up you consent to receive the above newsletter from Postmedia Network Inc.A welcome email is on its way. If you don't see it, please check your junk folder.The next issue of Top Stories will soon be in your inbox.We encountered an issue signing you up. Please try againWhile lower global inventories in the second quarter have left the oil market more exposed to supply shocks, a slump in Chinese imports coupled with greater demand elasticity may limit expected gains, they said.For investors seeking to hedge persistent geopolitical shocks from the Middle East, as well as from Russia, Goldman suggested a strategy of going long on the December 2026 to March 2027 European diesel timespread.Diesel markets were very tight before the war, Ukraine was continuing to hit Russian refineries, and there were extra risks to supplies from hurricanes, extreme summer heat, and deferrals in plant maintenance, they said.Brent futures were last at $88.54 a barrel. They peaked above $126 a barrel in late April, during the initial phase of the US-Iran conflict.(Updates to add video and related coverage.)This advertisement has not loaded yet.Notice for the Postmedia NetworkThis website uses cookies to personalize your content (including ads), and allows us to analyze our traffic. Read more about cookies here. By continuing to use our site, you agree to our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy.