Gold at Rs 1.43 lakh on Karva Chauth: Buy now or wait for a dip?

Gold prices have remained largely flat over the past few days, giving buyers little clarity on where the market is headed. However, on Karwa Chauth, the yellow metal has edged higher, although the rise remains marginal, as festive shopping gathers pace.At around 11 am on Thursday, October 29, MCX gold was trading at Rs 1,43,838, up 0.07%. The small gain comes after a few sessions of largely steady prices, leaving buyers and investors wondering whether the precious metal is preparing for its next move.With the festive season encouraging people to buy jewellery and coins, the key question is whether this modest rise marks the beginning of an upward trend or is simply a temporary move.WHY ARE GOLD PRICES MOVING SIDEWAYS?Gold prices have been taking cues from global developments, with investors closely tracking the US Federal Reserve's interest rate outlook, movements in the dollar and geopolitical tensions. Indian equities opened largely flat on Thursday as investors assessed the US Federal Reserve's decision to keep interest rates unchanged. The lack of a clear signal on whether rates could be raised in December has kept markets cautious.Meanwhile, oil prices have eased slightly, but US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude continues to hover around $101 a barrel. High oil prices remain a concern for India because they can increase the country's import bill and add to inflationary pressures. The rupee, trading near 95.25 against the dollar, along with firm US bond yields and a resilient dollar, has added to the uncertainty in financial markets.These factors are important for gold, as changes in interest rate expectations and currency movements can influence demand for the precious metal. For Indian buyers, movements in international gold prices and the rupee also affect domestic rates.WHAT DO TECHNICAL INDICATORS SUGGEST ABOUT GOLD PRICES?Despite Thursday's marginal rise in the broader market, gold's near-term direction remains uncertain.Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, said MCX gold opened near Rs 1,43,670 and was trading near Rs 1,43,550, down 0.11% at the time of his assessment.He said gold was holding within the Rs 1,43,000–Rs 1,43,700 range, which is being tested as a support zone.“The next support zone is 140,000-141,000, followed by 137,500-138,300. Immediate resistance is the 145,300-146,000 zone, with the next resistance zone at 148,000-148,600,” Ponmudi said.In simple terms, support is a price level where gold could find buying interest and limit its fall. Resistance is a level where selling pressure could emerge and make it harder for prices to rise further.Ponmudi also pointed to a relative strength index (RSI) near 38 and a negative MACD histogram. These technical indicators suggest that buying momentum remains weak, rather than signalling a strong upward move at present.IS THIS THE BEGINNING OF AN UPWARD TREND IN GOLD PRICES?Thursday's small gain may offer some encouragement to buyers, but it is too early to conclude that gold has entered a sustained upward trend.The metal has largely traded sideways in recent sessions, and a single day's marginal rise does not necessarily signal a fresh rally. Investors will need to watch whether prices move above the immediate resistance range of Rs 1,45,300–Rs 1,46,000 and sustain those gains.At the same time, uncertainty over global interest rates, the dollar and geopolitical developments could continue to influence prices. Any sharp change in these factors may lead to renewed volatility.Festive demand could provide some support to physical gold purchases, particularly as households buy jewellery and coins for auspicious occasions. However, higher seasonal demand does not automatically translate into a sustained increase in market prices.SHOULD INVESTORS BUY GOLD NOW OR WAIT?For those planning to buy gold jewellery on Karwa Chauth or ahead of other festive occasions, the decision may depend on whether the purchase is for personal use or investment.Those buying jewellery for an immediate occasion may prefer to focus on their budget and making charges instead of trying to predict short-term price movements. A marginal change in gold prices may not make a significant difference to the final bill, particularly when jewellery-making charges and taxes are included.Investors, meanwhile, should avoid treating Thursday's small gain as a definite sign of a rally. The price levels identified by Ponmudi may help them track the next move, but technical indicators cannot guarantee how gold will perform.Those looking to build a long-term allocation to gold could consider spreading purchases over time rather than investing the entire amount in one go. This approach can reduce the risk of committing all their money at a single price, although it does not guarantee returns.Gold can help diversify a portfolio, but investors should also consider their investment horizon, risk appetite and existing exposure to the metal before making fresh purchases.(Disclaimer: The views, opinions, recommendations, and suggestions expressed by experts/brokerages in this article are their own and do not reflect the views of the India Today Group. It is advisable to consult a qualified broker or financial advisor before making any actual investment or trading choices.)- Ends