Global Fossil Fuel Emissions Actually Fell in 2026. Don’t Get Used to It

Last year, global fossil fuel CO2 emissions reached a record high, rising 1.1% relative to 2024 levels. This year, the data tells a different story, but it comes with some major caveats. A preliminary analysis for 2026 suggests that global carbon emissions from fossil fuels will be 0.4% lower in 2026 than they were in 2025. That’s according to the 2026 Global Carbon Budget, published by the Global Carbon Project today. While the finding is encouraging, the report’s authors say this isn’t the start of a long-term decline. It’s also important to note that global atmospheric carbon concentrations still increased in 2026. “We see the main driver for the 2026 decline as the energy supply constraints brought about by the events in the Middle East,” co-author Robbie Andrew, a senior researcher in the Climate Mitigation group at the Center for International Climate Research (CICERO), told Gizmodo in an email. He described the projected decline as a “short-term blip.” Geopolitical shocks and growing renewables Roughly 20 million barrels of petroleum and crude oil pass through the Strait of Hormuz per day, accounting for a quarter of the world’s maritime oil trade. The 2026 Iran war has severely impacted traffic through the strait, leading to the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market. That disruption is a key factor behind the emissions decline projected in this year’s carbon budget report. Emissions from gas are expected to dip 0.3%, while coal emissions are projected to rise 0.6%. Oil emissions, meanwhile, are expected to drop 1.9%. “If the Strait of Hormuz is permanently reopened, then we’d expect those supply constraints to end,” Andrew said. “Even if the Strait doesn’t permanently reopen, the expectation is that the market will close the supply gap given the high prices induced by unmet demand. We’re already seeing a big increase in production of natural gas for export from countries outside of the Middle East.” He notes, however, that emissions probably wouldn’t have declined this year if not for large additions to renewable power generation. China is leading the charge on this. The nation is responsible for half the global emissions avoided thanks to renewable energy and electric vehicles, according to the report. But Andrew and his colleagues found that clean energy still isn’t growing fast enough to produce a sustained decline in global fossil CO2 emissions. “Accelerated deployment of solar, wind, batteries, and electric vehicles are pushing emissions down in dozens of countries, and slowing emissions growth in many more, but the changes are not sufficient to lock in a peak in global emissions,” co-author Glen Peters, a research professor at CICERO, said in a statement. The budget is running out In addition to quantifying the year-over-year change in fossil fuel CO2 emissions, the Global Carbon Budget calculates the amount of CO2 that can still be emitted before Earth’s average temperature reaches 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit (1.5 degrees Celsius) above pre-industrial levels—hence the term “budget.” That warming target was adopted by the Paris Agreement in 2015. Research has shown that keeping global warming below 2.7 degrees F (1.5 degrees C) would reduce impacts to human systems and terrestrial, freshwater, and coastal ecosystems, while every fraction of a degree of warming above that threshold would significantly amplify those impacts. In September, a United Nations report found that global temperatures are already on track to overshoot the Paris Agreement target within the next few years. In fact, a study published earlier today shows that current warming in many regions is indistinguishable from what would be expected in a world that has warmed by more than 2.7 degrees F (1.5 degrees C). The 2026 Global Carbon Budget provides even more evidence to suggest the world is on the precipice of this warming threshold. The authors found that the remaining carbon budget is now 165 billion tons. That’s equivalent to less than four years of emissions at the current rate. What’s more, the global average atmospheric CO2 concentration is projected to rise despite reduced emissions in 2026, jumping 2.2 parts per million. At the end of the day, the data shows that Earth’s climate is still careening toward overshoot. With that said, the report does provide evidence that phasing out fossil fuels and expanding renewable energy generation can make a real difference; the world just needs to pick up the pace. As the global community convenes in Antalya, Türkiye, this week for the 31st annual United Nations climate conference, that urgency will shape negotiations.