Get ready for a wounded Trump to lash out in Iran. Yet there is method in his mayhem - a chance to bring about a lasting Middle-East peace, and secure the legacy he craves

How will Donald Trump react to the extraordinary loss of face that, in all probability, lies in wait for him when the polls for today’s midterm elections finally close?How about Mad-As-Hell – and in a mood to lash out?However constrained he might be by the loss of the House, the Senate, or both, there is little that domestic politicians can do to prevent Trump waging war abroad in the two years that remain to him in office.Another massive assault on Iran is expected. A third carrier strike group is already heading to Gulf with 10,000 personnel aboard. We have just seen a ‘defensive’ raid on Iran’s Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz.If you thought the price of gas was already outrageous, it’s about to get higher still.Pure rage? A lust for vengeance? Well, not entirely. There may be method in what to hard-pressed motorists is madness. An E-2C Hawkeye landing on the flight deck of Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS George HW Bush just a few days ago How will Donald Trump react if Republicans do badly in in midterms? An attack on Iran looks likely. We have just seen a fresh strike on Iranian assets in the Strait of Hormuz The mullah's are defiant, as this street portrait of a battered Witkoff, Trump, Netanyahu and Vance shows. But can the regime survive another two years of isolation?Trump, after all, is a man who – unaffected by the price of fuel for his armoured limousines – is searching for a legacy.First there is the calculation that Iran will be unable to withstand another two years of bombing and blockades before his second and final term is out. Tehran’s economy is already crippledAnd then there the deeper forces now at play – including an inexorable re-alignment of the Middle East.The balance of power is changing, and Trump will feel he can guide this process towards a solution which not only pleases America but genuinely aids world peace.This would, in turn, grant the 47th president the kind of political victory that now seems out of reach in the domestic sphere.So, what’s going on?The best clue lies in the Mecca accord announced in August, a deal which brings together Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan in a unified defence fact. In theory, this guarantees that an attack on one is an attack on all.It’s no small matter. Pakistan is a huge nation with 260 million people and nuclear weapons. Saudi Arabia is not only custodian to Islam’s holiest places, it remains one of the richest nations on earth. With 88 million people, Turkey is no minnow. But more to the point, it one of the world’s leading high-tech armaments industries and one of the biggest standing armies in the region.Remember, too, the pact has been signed with the blessing of Washington.The Mecca union presents Iran with a clear and present dilemma.To ignore it would be to stand on the sidelines while its hated regional rival, Saudi Arabia, grows in strength.It would be inconvenient for Tehran, to say the least, to have Pakistan lined up alongside the Sunnis of Riad.Quite aside from its nuclear weapons, Pakistan has adroitly placed itself as an honest broker in the conflict between Iran and the US - and Iran needs all the friends it can get.Then comes the involvement of Turkey, which might present the greatest difficulty of all.True, Turkey has maintained a friendly relationship with Tehran (very different from its hostile stance on Israel). But of all nations in the Middle East, it is Turkey that threatens regional hegemony – a dominance that, were it achieved, would leave Iran’s ambitions of regional leadership in tatters.For Turkey already works with the Americans when it suits, and will continue to do so. This can hardly suit Tehran. There is every prospect that, with Turkish leadership and US encouragement, the Egyptians will sign up, and that the bloc will steadily grow.And, while they will be loath to acknowledge it, the mullahs (who are ethnically Persian) know all too well that one third of the Iranian population is Turkic and already maintains a warm regard for the cultural leadership of Ankara.All of the above will come into ever sharper focus as America continues its steady withdrawal from the region, leaving the screaming question: who will take its place? And the equally obvious answer: Turkey and its backers.In short, a major realignment is already under way, and the Iranians will need to choose – and soon.What to do? The best option might be to embrace what it cannot outflank and join the nascent bloc. Yet to do so would be to accept that it must abandon its nuclear ambitions and can no longer threaten regional neighbours, including Israel. It will be forced keep its behaviour within accepted l norms. Qeshm Island helps Iran control international shipping through the narrow strait The Mecca Union, announced in August, brings together Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan in a three-way defence pact Remember, too, the agreement has been signed with the blessing of WashingtonThere would be benefits, meanwhile. Peace and the chance for a shattered economy to recover. In the face of such a coalition, the regional pressure on Israel to recognise Palestinian statehood would be formidable.Of course, the US might be wrong, and not for the first time. With the continuing help of Russia and China, the mullahs might survive another two years of isolation. They have found a way before.But for an American president about to enter the final downward course of his political trajectory, another roll of the dice seems obvious. Hence the renewed pressure on Iran.Yes, there will be winners, including Turkey, Saudi Arabia and a US Treasury no longer obliged to fund all those bases in the Gulf. And there will be losers, notably Israel, which – sooner or later - will have to adjust to a region no longer run by Uncle Sam.Yet there is also an inestimable prize in view: a new Middle East, in which the many anxious rivals finally accept the realistic limits of their situation and settle down accordingly.For Trump, this would be a real achievement, one worthy of the history books.And for the rest of us – even maybe for Israel in the longer run – why not?