German chancellor hopes for election gains this Sunday — but CDU may lose votes and Merz his job

Originally published in Deník N. The far-right and far-left are poised to take votes from the Christian Democrats (CDU) in this Sunday’s two state elections in Germany, piling more pressure on Friedrich Merz. Post-war Germany’s least popular chancellor is falling out of favour within his own party, fuelling speculation about his possible resignation. When Merz sought the leadership of the Christian Democrats (CDU) in 2018, he promised to reduce by half support for the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD). Such unfulfilled ambitions are catching up with Merz. The AfD, which German intelligence services classed as extremist, has never been stronger. Since the far right party’s triumph in the Saxony-Anhalt 10 days ago, an opinion poll on Tuesday (15 September) projected that AfD would win 30 percent of the vote in a national election. This marks an unprecedented turning point. The chancellor’s own party, CDU, is trailing behind the AfD by 12 percentage points, according to polling data. AfD never misses a chance to poke the chancellor with a reminder of his failed promise, with AfD co-chair Alice Weidel asserting that the CDU would “never win another election”, while AfD would keep growing. However, just last weekend, the CDU won local elections in Lower Saxony, the AfD coming in third behind the Social Democrats. As the extremists look to build on their success in Saxony-Anhalt, Germany is holding its breath ahead of the elections this Sunday (20 September). This is especially so in Berlin and, above all, in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, where polls suggest the AfD will once again make strong gains. Merz must feel that bad news is coming at him from all sides: Lower Saxony, plunging popularity, difficulties at industry jewel Volkswagen, hybrid attacks from Russia, a faltering economy…and, lately, growing discontent within his own party. Many CDU members are running out of patience with the unpopular chancellor, making no secret of their desire for change at the helm. Merz likely to stick it out until bitter end While Ulrich Siegmund, AfD leader in Saxony-Anhalt, enjoyed spotlight and attention from the global press, the atmosphere in central Berlin's chancellery was tense. Of course polls had long predicted the far right’s victory, but Merz may have hoped that the defeat would not be so humiliating. Attention swiftly turned from Magdeburg to Berlin. Since assuming office in May last year, Merz has never been under so much pressure. His popularity continues to plunge. An INSA poll conducted last weekend showed that 78 percent of Germans do not want him as chancellor. The figures are not much better among CDU voters: 58 percent do not want him in the role, while “only” 36 percent believe he should remain, and the rest are undecided. The chancellor is so unpopular that even his own party colleagues in Saxony-Anhalt did not want him to campaign. His face did not even appear on posters, which in German elections is unusual.