‘Fully Surrounded’: Russian Forces Suffer Major Defeat in Donbas After Losing 240 Sq. Km

Russian forces in Ukraine have been forced to abandon more than 200 square kilometers (77 square miles) along the main axis of their offensive in the Donetsk region.OSINT analyst Clément Molin was among the first to report the development on X, which was subsequently confirmed by Rochan Consulting and the US-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW).JOIN US ON TELEGRAMFollow our coverage of the war on the @Kyivpost_official. After 4 months of the Lyman counter-attack, Ukraine 🇺🇦 3rd Army Corps managed to cut Russian 🇷🇺 salient north of Lyman and liberate more than 200 km2This is one of the most important victory for Ukraine in 2026 which will delay the offensive on northern Donbas🧵THREAD🧵1/20⬇️ pic.twitter.com/PybB6jO9DO— Clément Molin (@clement_molin) September 8, 2026 According to Konrad Muzyka, head of Rochan Consulting, the Ukrainian counteroffensive has unfolded over roughly four months. Ukrainian forces liberated Nove in June, reached Kolodezi by mid-August, and then launched another assault between Katerynivka and Novolyubivka, effectively cutting off the Russian force advancing toward Lyman.As a result, Russia lost about 240 sq. km (92 square miles) and failed in its attempt to encircle the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk urban agglomeration from the north, Muzyka added. The most important effect of the Ukrainian counterattack north of Lyman is that it thwarted Russia’s attempt to envelop the Slovyansk–Kramatorsk agglomeration from the north. We assess that Russian forces have lost control of approximately 240 km² there. By comparison, they have… https://t.co/Iw2GdPfgxP pic.twitter.com/nkYJvLL54G— Konrad Muzyka - Rochan Consulting (@konrad_muzyka) September 10, 2026 The operation reversed Russia’s territorial gains along this axis since early March, the ISW wrote.Russian forces encircledUkrainian forces breached a “very old defensive line” and moved into the rear of the Russian force near Lyman, according to Russian military expert Valery Shiryaev.Russian troops in the area found themselves “fully surrounded,” he said.“It is largely an operational encirclement, but dense: in many settlements in the area of Shandryholove, there are still Russian fighters, and their supply is only by air.”The setback comes as Russian President Vladimir Putin reportedly expects his military to fully capture the Donetsk region within the next six months. Other Topics of Interest Ukraine Faces New Russian Jet-Powered Drones | Stefan Korshak While Ukraine can intercept many conventional drones and ballistic missiles, faster jet-powered Geran drones are creating increasingly difficult threats. Sources close to the Kremlin told Bloomberg that Putin has set the new target after previously setting the end of this year as a deadline. According to the ISW, Putin has changed his “deadlines” for capturing the Donbas at least 15 times since the beginning of the full-scale war.Shiryaev said the Russian army’s retreat could be confirmed, with Ukrainian forces gradually pushing settlement after settlement into the “gray zone.”Russian milbloggers have also acknowledged a deterioration in the situation. According to The Moscow Times, they described the tactical situation near Lyman as worsening.The Russian Telegram channel Rybar blamed the setbacks on “systemic lying in reports to superiors” and an “incorrect assessment of the situation.”“According to the experience of the Kupyansk direction, where similar problems were solved by unprepared assaults, this will lead to new losses,” the channel wrote.Rybar added that diverting reserves to plug gaps near Lyman could weaken Russian defenses elsewhere, creating vulnerabilities that Ukrainian forces would likely exploit.Shiryaev also compared the situation with Russia’s earlier setbacks around Kupyansk.“In the same way, the same commander of the ‘West’ group, Kuzovlyov, reported on the successes in Kupyansk, after which he even received the title of Hero of Russia. Then everything turned the other way around, and the command and the top political leadership had already managed to declare it to the whole world. Now things are much worse than they were in Kupyansk,” he said.Military analysts caution that it is too early to call the Ukrainian counteroffensive a turning point. Still, Molin and Shiryaev said it would delay Russia’s planned offensive toward northern Donbas.New opportunities along the Sloviansk axisMilitary analyst Yan Matveyev called the developments a serious but localized crisis for Russian forces.“A disastrous summer for the Russian army has ended, and autumn is beginning with a massive scandal surrounding Svyatohirsk,” Matveyev said.“For Russian troops, this crisis is relatively localized, but it is a crisis nonetheless – denying that would be foolish. Meanwhile, significant opportunities are opening up for Ukrainian forces along the entire Sloviansk axis,” he added.Shiryaev said a sustained Ukrainian foothold near Lyman could eventually allow Ukrainian drone operators to strike the rear of Russian forces advancing toward Mykolaivka and Sloviansk.“If the Armed Forces of Ukraine [AFU] succeed – fully establishing a foothold there without interference, bringing in their drone operators, and seizing the entire area – the situation will shift regarding firing ranges,” he said.Ukrainian drone operators could potentially gain an additional 10-15 kilometers (6-9 miles) of effective FPV drone range, allowing them to launch mass strikes against the rear of the Russian group advancing toward Sloviansk, Shiryaev said.Notably, Putin claimed on Sept. 1 that Russia’s Northern Group of Forces had captured Svyatohirsk after Russian troops advanced to within 13 kilometers (8 miles) of the city in late spring and early summer.The commander of Ukraine’s 3rd Army Corps, Brig. Gen. Andriy Biletsky, has denied Putin’s claim that Russian forces captured Svyatohirsk.In a video recorded on Sept. 7 in the city center with the Holy Assumption Svyatohirsk Lavra visible behind him, Biletsky said the 60th Mechanized Brigade remained in full control of the city.On Sept. 6, the Donetsk Regional Military Administration also said Svyatohirsk remained under Ukrainian control, while warning that Russian forces were heavily shelling the city.