Fuel price rollercoaster: Relief turns to pain for motorists: Here’s what you need to know

South Africa’s mid‑July fuel outlook has flipped from relief to renewed pain, with petrol recoveries shrinking sharply and diesel swinging... South Africa’s mid‑July fuel outlook has flipped from relief to renewed pain, with petrol recoveries shrinking sharply and diesel swinging into negative territory. The new data raises the risk of price hikes that will hit motorists and the wider economy. Data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) at the end of the third week in July shows that diesel price recoveries have gone into the red, with a 0.05% (500ppm) price hike on the cards. Changes The under-recovery has been attributed to the rising global oil price, which has shot up to around $85 a barrel as renewed tensions in the Middle East take their toll on Brent crude prices and on South Africa’s fuel price recoveries, and the war between the United States and Iran reignited earlier in the month. Last week, both petrol and diesel showed a strong over-recovery, translating into large price reductions in August. CEF data The CEF data show petrol prices still showing an over-recovery of R1.07 per litre, while diesel recoveries are over or in the red, with 0.05% (500 ppm) diesel recording an over-recovery of one cent and 0.005% (50 ppm) diesel at an under-recovery of 24 cents per litre. Illuminating paraffin has also swung into over recovery, now at 22 cents per litre. Fuel price outlook If these forecasts hold, motorists could see the following adjustments in August 2026: Octane 93 petrol: decrease of R1.07 per litre Octane 95 petrol: decrease of R1.03 per litre Diesel 0.05%: increase of one cent per litre Diesel 0.005%: decrease of R0.24per litre Illuminating paraffin: decrease of R0.22 cents per litre Oil prices Oil prices were on track for a weekly gain as escalating conflict involving Iran threatened to disrupt flows through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical energy chokepoints. Brent crude climbed to around $107 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate traded above $102, marking a sharp rise of about 6% over the week. The escalation has already slowed tanker traffic out of the Persian Gulf to a trickle, raising fears of a prolonged supply squeeze, according to Moneyweb. Warning Analysts warn that global inventories are falling at a record pace, with the International Energy Agency cautioning that the market will remain “severely undersupplied” until at least October, even if hostilities ease. Geopolitical uncertainty continues to drive volatility. A US blockade of Iranian ports remains in place, and reports of seized vessels have heightened tensions. President Donald Trump’s mixed signals on whether the US requires the Strait of Hormuz to remain open have added to market jitters, while inflationary pressures from rising oil costs are beginning to weigh on economies worldwide.