Fuel Doubled. Five Counterparties Now Decide Which Airlines Absorb It.

Opening Talks + Reception: Apella by Alexandria, New York City, November 11, 2026 Main Event: TWA Hotel, JFK, New York City, November 12, 2026 Jet fuel prices were up 102% year over year in mid-September, and record revenues have failed to fully cover the increase. The damage has been uneven. Spirit Airlines shut down in May after its second bankruptcy in a year. Meanwhile, North America’s largest carriers have stayed upbeat on the strength of tight capacity, loyalty cash and travelers willing to pay for comfort. The difference comes down to leverage. In a year when the biggest cost line is set by a war, airline margins depend on five relationships outside the airline’s control. Skift Aviation Forum comes to New York this November, with an opening reception on November 11 and the main event on November 12 with leaders from across these relationships on stage. The Manufacturers: A Shortage That Props Up Fares Meaningful narrowbody delivery slots for the A320neo and 737 Max are scarce until roughly 2033, and widebody availability stays tight into the mid-2030s. At Farnborough in July, lessors placed the largest orders, absorbing balance-sheet risk that airlines no longer wanted to carry. The shortage cuts both ways. It caps every carrier’s growth, and that same cap has kept capacity tight enough to support fares while fuel climbed. The decision it forces is fleet commitment a decade out, with lessors holding more of the capital. On stage: Robin Hayes, Chairman and CEO of Airbus in North America, ran JetBlue before joining Airbus, which puts him on both sides of the order book. Arjan Meijer, President & CEO of Embraer Commercial Aviation, leads the maker of the E2 family. The Unions: Costs Locked In for Five Years United became the last of the big four US airlines to settle with its flight attendants in May. The five-year contract includes a 31% pay increase, $741 million in retroactive pay and boarding pay. The other three had already signed similar deals. Those costs landed in the same year fuel doubled, and an airline cannot hedge them. Europe’s largest airline groups face the same squeeze, with labor and airport costs climbing alongside fuel. Labor is now the fixed base that every capacity plan has to clear before fuel, fares or fleet enter the math. On stage: Sara Nelson, International President of the Association of Flight Attendants-CWA, AFL-CIO, leads the union representing flight attendants across US airlines. She’ll be in the room with the airline commercial leaders whose capacity plans her members’ contracts have to fit. The Premium Traveler: Revenue That Absorbs Shocks Premium cabins generated $188 billion in 2024, 24% of global airline passenger revenue. US premium capacity has grown 33% since 2020, against 16% for economy. Self-funded leisure travelers now drive much of that demand. Skift Research flags the next risk as oversupply. If every carrier scales premium at once, yields dilute. The decision is how much cabin to hand to premium before the industry builds more of it than travelers will buy. On stage: Luis Gallego, CEO of International Airlines Group, runs a group that holds British Airways and Iberia alongside low-cost brand Vueling. David Neeleman, Founder, Chairman & CEO of Breeze Airways, has launched airlines in North and South America and built a premium cabin into Breeze’s Airbus A220 fleet. The Airports: Competing for the Same Traveler Airports are building on decade-long horizons. Dallas Fort Worth is targeting 100 million passengers by 2030, with a new Terminal F at the center of that growth. Airlines will fly into that capacity, and they will pay for it through the charges that fund it. Airports are also moving into the premium experience. At São Paulo’s Guarulhos airport, a fully private terminal operating independently of airlines reached capacity quickly and pushed carriers to change their procedures. The decision is who owns the premium traveler’s time on the ground, and who pays for the terminals built to hold them. On stage: John Ackerman, CEO of Los Angeles World Airports, is preparing LAX for the 2028 Olympics and a $30 billion transformation The Banks: The Most Profitable Seat Is a Credit Card Delta collected $8.2 billion from American Express in 2025, about 14% of adjusted operating revenue. Co-brand operating margins run an estimated 35% to 50%. Outside the US, IAG Loyalty is targeting more than €1 billion in operating profit, with over 80% of revenue coming from external partners buying Avios. That revenue depends on uncapped US interchange fees, which the Credit Card Competition Act would put at risk. The decision is how much of an airline’s earnings to tie to a bank partner and a regulation it does not control. On stage: Tiffany Funk, Head of Flying Blue, runs the loyalty program of Air France KLM Group. Nat Pieper, Chief Commercial Officer of American Airlines, sets commercial strategy at the carrier. Mark Nasr, Executive Vice President and Chief Operations Officer at Air Canada, previously ran the airline’s Aeroplan loyalty program and marketing, and now runs day-to-day operations. Other speakers include leaders from Allegiant, Porter Airlines, oneworld and Homage Ventures & Advisors. Both Sides of the Table Skift Aviation Forum puts these counterparties in one room: airline commercial chiefs alongside the leader of the union representing flight attendants across US airlines, and carriers alongside the manufacturers building their next fleets. Beneath all five relationships sits a bigger question: who is still independent in five years? The industry is consolidating, and the carriers that come out strongest will look different from the ones that went in. We’ll hear from founders and executives on both sides of that line, including leaders betting on growth without a merger. Sessions and more speakers will be announced on the event page in the coming weeks.