From pin-up calendars to the Istanbul Convention: Magyar’s U-turn, as Operation Purgatory reaches Orbán’s brother (Day 184 of the Tisza government)

The series continues as we report on developments following April’s historic election and on the steps taken since then by the Tisza government. This week, we cover the following topics: Orbán’s brother on a leash Péter Magyar and women The new head of state takes on the asset‑protection law Fidesz is in freefall – no one knows where it will stop Even Fidesz voters consider uncovering corruption cases important Áron Orbán on a leash For 16 years it had been utterly unthinkable that an official measure could reach all the way into former prime minister Viktor Orbán’s family. Now this has happened. On Monday (9 November), Áron Orbán, the brother of the former prime minister, was taken into custody. And not only was he detained, he was later also remanded in pre‑trial detention for one month due to the risk of tampering with evidence. Áron Orbán’s case, which has been taken over by the National Office for Asset Recovery and Asset Protection set up by the new government, is rather convoluted. Put simply, it concerns a group which, citing its political connections, told companies and entrepreneurs engaged in recruiting foreign labour that if they arranged residence permits through them, they would in any case obtain the necessary visas. In the case, an investigation was launched on suspicion of influence peddling and other criminal offences, but it did not move forward until the elections; afterwards, however, several arrests were made. This offers an intriguing parallel with current events in Serbia: there, the authorities set about the dirty work almost immediately after former president Aleksandar Vučić’s fall and arrested major players – clearly everything had long been prepared there as well, only those in power had not allowed the wheels of justice to turn. According to the Budapest Prosecutor’s Office, over several months in 2024 Áron Orbán and his three associates helped Vietnamese citizens get to Western Europe via Hungary. According to the allegations, they assisted in visa procedures at Hungarian consular posts, for which they charged a so‑called recruitment fee per person and then shared the proceeds. Based on the authorities’ information, they may have helped more than one hundred Vietnamese nationals. Péter Magyar and women At the start of the week, it looked like prime minister Péter Magyar was heading for a difficult week in office. On Monday, he addressed parliament about his government’s first six months, but attention quickly shifted to a controversy over communist-era secret police records. Lists published from the archives wrongly identified 164 people, including Fidesz politician Sándor Lezsák, as former agents, when they had actually been victims of surveillance. Magyar apologised but argued that the archives are controlled by parliament, not his government. However, since making these records public was a long-promised part of his political agenda, he should take responsibility for the mistake rather than shift the blame. On top of that, Magyar also bungled the latest episode of his ongoing political communication soap opera, called Absolute Movie Theater. On Sunday, in his video he showed viewers the lesser‑known parts of the Parliament building, where calendars featuring naked women could be seen on the wall of a basement maintenance workshop. Our former colleague Veronika Munk, editor‑in‑chief of 444.hu, directly confronted the issue in an opinion piece, sharply criticising the video, the objectification of women’s bodies and the conspiratorial, primitive machismo. The Hungarian prime minister, a prolific Facebook commenter, could not resist weighing in. Commenting under the 444 article, he mocked Munk’s view that crude, breast-focused images are among the most degrading ways women are portrayed in the media. Clearly, he did not agree. The situation was further aggravated by the fact that on Wednesday the parliamentary committee investigating abuses in the enforcement system under the previous regime – the Völner–Schadl case – heard Judit Varga, Péter Magyar’s ex‑wife and Viktor Orbán’s former justice minister. The former minister did not say much that was new about the case itself, stating that she had had no opportunity to “expose” her former state secretary, Pál Völner, who was up to his neck in the affair. She spoke much more, however, about her ex‑husband, even though this was not really relevant to the subject. But Magyar’s superpower is that he can always turn things around. And on Thursday morning (12 November), he did just that. In a video he announced that, after many months of work, a comprehensive social and criminal‑law package would be adopted to protect victims of domestic violence and abused women. According to Magyar’s announcement, the package contains a large number of very important commitments. They would tighten restraining‑order rules, so that after a request for help the abuser could not approach the victim, for example, at her home or workplace. They would make the misuse of intimate recordings a standalone criminal offence. They would clearly enshrine the requirement of voluntary consent for sexual acts. They would ensure special treatment for victims of relationship violence in criminal proceedings. They would amend the heartbeat decree. Before terminating a pregnancy, after receiving medical information, the woman concerned could decide for herself whether she wants the signs of the foetus’s vital functions to be shown to her. They would abolish the prescription requirement for the morning‑after pill, so emergency contraception would be available without a prescription. They would launch measures against period poverty, so that those for whom buying basic hygiene products is a financial burden can also obtain them. They would strengthen support for pregnant women. The government will initiate the ratification of the Istanbul Convention. The convention lays down obligations for preventing violence against women and domestic violence, protecting victims and prosecuting perpetrators. Neither the amendment of the heartbeat decree nor the ratification of the Istanbul Convention featured in Tisza’s election programme. The new head of state is not a signing machine Hungary’s new president, András Baka, has shown that he will not automatically approve everything put before him. This week, he refused to sign a government-backed law that could give the state greater influence over investment funds and weaken protections for minority shareholders. Baka argued that the law was too broad, could affect existing funds with no state involvement, and offered insufficient protection to smaller investors. He also criticised the fact that it was passed just 26 hours after being introduced, without proper consultation, warning that such unpredictable interventions could undermine investor confidence. He has referred the legislation to the Constitutional Court for review. His decision marks a significant departure from the practice of his predecessors, who rarely challenged laws important to the government. For the first time in years, Hungary has a president willing to use his office to question legislation on substantive grounds – a welcome sign for the country's democracy. Fidesz is in freefall – no one knows where it will stop Meanwhile, former PM Viktor Orbán and his circle are still not in very good shape. Medián, the polling agency that predicted the election results most accurately, published a new survey at the beginning of the week, according to which Fidesz’s support has plummeted – while Tisza’s has risen. The voters clearly do not feel that “Tisza‑style despotism” is raging, as Fidesz politicians keep repeating like a mantra. In the total population, 55 percent would currently vote for the governing party, while Fidesz has fallen to 16 percent. This is a low not seen for several decades; they were last this weak in the mid‑1990s. With such a vote share, Tisza would win more than 160 seats in parliament if elections were held now. And misfortune is piling up for Fidesz: its more uncertain voters are likely drifting into the camp of non‑voters or to Tisza, while its core electorate and more radical base appear to be eroded by the far‑right Mi Hazánk party. So the tables have turned on what Fidesz itself did with the far right for 16 years – it took over its themes, slowly absorbed its voters and turned this kind of political aggression into the mainstream. Now, everything is slowly returning to the “normal order of things”. Even Fidesz voters consider uncovering corruption cases important Another survey by Medián has produced data that will make Fidesz scratch its head even more. The poll, commissioned by newspaper HVG, shows that four‑fifths of Hungarians consider it important to uncover corruption cases from the past 16 years and hold perpetrators to account – and only eight percent see this as of little importance. From the results it is easy to infer why Orbán’s “martyr‑making” strategy is not working. A majority is satisfied with the accountability process itself – 57 percent of people are satisfied with how criminal proceedings have been launched. True, two‑thirds of Fidesz voters think the process is heading in the wrong direction, but even so, eight percent of them believe the proceedings are fine. Operation Purgatory is in fact criticised from two directions: one‑fifth of people think the pace is not fast and firm enough. Another fifth, by contrast, think the process is too harsh. What is clear from the numbers is that Fidesz cannot expect much sympathy from undecided voters or supporters of other parties. Least of all from Tisza voters – prayer chains and martyr‑making or not. And one more detail. Already in May, 65 percent thought that the former prime minister had committed such serious unlawful acts that he should be brought to trial, and the proportion of those who think this has since increased further – even among Fidesz supporters, by four percentage points. Among Tisza voters, 73 percent believe there is a serious chance this will actually happen, and even one‑third of Fidesz voters consider it likely that Operation Purgatory will reach all the way to Viktor Orbán.