From Covid vaccine to cancer breakthrough, Moderna's 177% surge explained

Moderna's shares soared during the Covid vaccine boom before crashing as demand faded. A cancer breakthrough has now triggered the company's biggest-ever one-day gain, with the stock jumping 177%. Now, investors are asking whether cancer could give Moderna the next big growth story it has been searching for.Moderna logo is seen displayed in this illustration taken. (Photo: Reuters)Moderna was one of Wall Street's biggest winners when Covid-19 brought the world to a standstill. Its vaccine turned the little-known biotech company into a household name and sent its stock to dizzying heights. Then came the equally dramatic fall.Now, a breakthrough in cancer treatment has investors asking whether Moderna has found its next big chapter.The US biotechnology company's shares surged 176.97%, or roughly 177%, to $174.38 on Wednesday after Moderna and pharmaceutical giant Merck said their experimental personalised cancer treatment had succeeded in a large late-stage trial.The treatment helped prevent melanoma, a serious form of skin cancer, from returning or spreading in patients whose tumours had been removed through surgery. The companies have not yet released the full Phase 3 data, but the results were enough to trigger Moderna's biggest-ever one-day stock-market gain. The extraordinary rally was about more than one promising treatment.It reflected a bigger bet on Moderna. That the mRNA technology which made the company a pandemic giant may finally have a future beyond Covid vaccines.HOW COVID TRANSFORMED MODERNA Before the pandemic, Moderna was a biotechnology company betting heavily on messenger RNA, or mRNA, a technology that uses genetic instructions to tell cells to produce specific proteins.Covid gave that technology its defining moment.Moderna developed one of the first Covid vaccines to be authorised and rolled out at scale. Governments bought millions of doses, and the company's business grew at extraordinary speed.In 2021, Moderna reported $18.5 billion in revenue, of which about $17.7 billion came from its Covid vaccine.Its shares climbed to a record closing high of about $484 in August 2021.The pandemic had transformed Moderna from a company largely known within biotech circles into one of the world's biggest pharmaceutical success stories.But it also left the company with a difficult question: what would come next?THE FALL AFTER COVIDHowever, the huge demand for Covid vaccines did not last forever.As the world moved beyond the emergency phase of the pandemic, vaccine demand fell sharply. Moderna's revenues declined, and investors began looking more closely at whether the company could turn its mRNA technology into other successful products.The stock came under severe pressure.The company had other vaccines and treatments in development, including for respiratory diseases and cancer, but the market was waiting for stronger evidence that another major commercial success could emerge from its pipeline.That is what made Wednesday's announcement so significant.CANCER BREAKTHROUGH RALLYModerna and Merck are developing a treatment called intismeran autogene, a personalised mRNA cancer vaccine. It is not a conventional vaccine that can simply be given to every cancer patient.Scientists first examine the mutations in an individual's tumour. They then use that information to create a customised mRNA treatment designed to help the immune system recognise and attack cancer cells carrying those specific mutations.The latest Phase 3 trial involved more than 1,000 melanoma patients whose tumours had been surgically removed but who remained at a high risk of the cancer returning.The treatment was used alongside Merck's Keytruda, a widely used cancer immunotherapy drug.On Wednesday, Moderna and Merck said the trial met its key goals, helping prevent the cancer from returning and spreading. The companies will continue following patients to determine whether the treatment also improves overall survival.Full trial data has not yet been released, and the treatment still requires regulatory approval before it can reach patients.But the result is an important validation of an idea Moderna has been pursuing for years: that mRNA could be used for much more than fighting infectious diseases.WHY INVESTORS RESPONDED SO DRAMATICALLYModerna closed at $174.38, up 176.97%, in its biggest-ever one-day gain.The stock had been heavily shorted before the announcement, meaning many investors had bet that its price would fall. Wednesday's surge forced some of them to buy shares to close those bets, adding to the rally.But the market's excitement went beyond the mechanics of short-covering.A successful late-stage cancer trial potentially changes how investors see Moderna.The company is no longer being viewed only as a Covid-vaccine maker dealing with the decline of its pandemic-era business. The melanoma results suggest its core technology could have applications in one of the world's biggest and most valuable areas of medicine.That possibility is what Wall Street was buying.COULD THIS WORK BEYOND MELANOMA?The answer is still unclear, but Moderna and Merck are already testing the personalised cancer vaccine approach in other cancers.Large trials are underway in non-small-cell lung cancer, while studies are also examining bladder and kidney cancers. Earlier-stage trials are looking at pancreatic and stomach cancers.Other companies are pursuing similar personalised cancer treatments as well.Success in melanoma does not guarantee that the approach will work against other cancers. Nor does a successful trial mean the treatment will automatically become a commercial blockbuster.Cancer is not one disease, and each tumour presents its own scientific challenges.Still, the melanoma result has given researchers and investors reason to take the idea more seriously.CAN MODERNA REPEAT ITS COVID SUCCESS?There is still a long way to go.The full Phase 3 data has not yet been released, and the treatment will have to clear regulatory hurdles. Researchers also need to establish whether it improves overall survival, one of the most important measures of a cancer treatment's benefit.And even after its 177% surge, Moderna's shares remain well below their pandemic-era peak.But the stock's dramatic reaction showed how much investors had been waiting for a convincing sign of what comes after Covid.The pandemic proved that Moderna could turn mRNA science into a product used on a global scale. The years that followed showed how difficult it would be to repeat that success.Wednesday's cancer breakthrough does not guarantee that Moderna has found its next Covid-sized business.But for the first time in a while, the company has given Wall Street a compelling reason to imagine what its future beyond the pandemic could look like.- EndsPublished By: Koustav DasPublished On: Aug 20, 2026 10:35 IST