From AFC North finish to 1st overall pick: What prediction markets say about Deshaun Watson’s Browns

Cleveland Browns quarterback Deshaun Watson throws on the run against the Buffalo Bills in the second half. Joshua Gunter, cleveland.comBy Pete Truszkowski | Advance LocalWhen Deshaun Watson spoke after Saturday’s preseason game against the Buffalo Bills, he was widely destroyed by Browns fans and media alike. It was one of the most out-of-touch press conferences by an athlete in recent memory. It felt like the already very small chance of Watson working out with the Browns had been minimized to none. Instead, the team announced Watson as their starting quarterback just a few days later. The Watson saga could not have aged more terribly. From moving on from Baker Mayfield, who has developed into a good quarterback in Tampa, to the trade package paid to acquire Watson to the financial compensation the Browns gave to their new quarterback. It all ended up looking bad. Most fans were ready to turn a leaf and at least see what the team has in divisive second-year quarterback Shedeur Sanders. Anyone who was intrigued by the Watson possibility likely lost interest after he called Browns fans “disrespectful” this past weekend. Here we go again. The season gets underway in just about two weeks and Browns fans are already over it. If you look at some of the markets at Kalshi, most traders and markets also forecast a grim season for Watson and the Browns. Users can jump in on the prediction market craze by claiming Polymarket referral code CLEVE which awards a $20 bonus as well as claiming Kalshi referral code CLEVELAND which offers a $25 bonus. AFC North Kalshi marketsIn a division featuring Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow and Aaron Rodgers, it’s no surprise that the team starting the 2026 version of Deshaun Watson has the lowest odds of finishing first. TeamChance to win AFC NorthBaltimore Ravens48%Cincinnati Bengals34%Pittsburgh Steelers17%Cleveland Browns4%The Steelers have the third best chance to win the division despite winning it last year. This is because the market is choosing to be optimistic about the health of Joe Burrow and Lamar Jackson, who have both missed major time with injuries over the last couple of years.The Ravens have a new coach and there’s a chance a new offensive system brings Jackson to an even higher level. The Bengals are hoping a healthy campaign from Burrow can elevate them to the heights of a few seasons ago where they made back-to-back AFC Championship Games. Pittsburgh has a new face as well, with Mike McCarthy replacing Mike Tomlin. All three teams should at the very least receive competent quarterback play, and there’s a chance Jackson and Burrow could perform at an MVP level. On the other hand, the Browns traded away their best player in Myles Garrett, hired a head coach who isn’t overly inspiring in Todd Monken and have decided to move forward with Deshaun Watson at quarterback. Worst team in the NFL? First overall pick?The AFC North seems like a pipedream. In fact, there are some Browns fans who are already turning their attention to college football and the 2027 NFL Draft. It’s likely that neither Watson or Sanders are the long-term answer at quarterback, which would make the most likely solution the Browns drafting someone in the upcoming draft. Will the Browns be bad enough to draft high in the draft?Worst regular season record oddsTeamChance at worst recordArizona Cardinals24%Miami Dolphins23%Cleveland Browns10%New York Jets10%Las Vegas Raiders9%Tennessee Titans6%Arizona plans to enter the season with Jacoby Brissett as their starting quarterback, while the Dolphins throw Malik Willis out there with little to no weapons. Both of those teams are favorites to finish with the worst record in the league. However, the Browns are in a tier below them with the Jets (second worst record last year), the Raiders (worst record in the league last year) and the Titans (worst record in the league two years ago). That’s hardly great company. Will this result in a high pick for the Browns?Team to make first overall pick oddsTeamChance at first overall pickArizona Cardinals22%Miami Dolphins18%New York Jets17%Cleveland Browns9%Carolina Panthers8%This list is obviously very similar to the market of team to finish with the worst record. The Jets are armed with three first round picks, so if a team that doesn’t need a quarterback, such as Las Vegas or Tennessee, gets the first overall pick, the Jets have the ammo to trade up. That explains the main discrepancy between the two markets. NFL Prediction Markets:Local Browns and NFL fans in most states can now use prediction markets to trade on football as an alternative to typical betting. 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