Freeze or Liberation? How Ukrainians Expect the War to End

Four in 10 Ukrainians now consider a de facto freeze of the war with some territory remaining under Russian occupation the most realistic outcome, although a majority still envisage the liberation of at least part of the occupied land. The findings were published by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) on Tuesday, Oct. 6, following a nationwide survey conducted from Sept. 12-21.JOIN US ON TELEGRAMFollow our coverage of the war on the @Kyivpost_official. KIIS asked respondents to choose the scenario they considered most realistic – “not what you want, but what is possible in the current situation.” Some 41% selected a scenario in which Ukraine preserves its statehood and independence but accepts forced territorial losses, compared with 33% surveyed in February 2025. The institute stressed that the answer did not imply formal recognition of the occupied territories as Russian. Based on its previous surveys, KIIS said most respondents likely understood the option as freezing the conflict approximately along the current front line. Majority still foresee some deoccupation A combined 53% of respondents chose scenarios involving the liberation of at least some Ukrainian territory, down from 60% in February 2025. The answers were divided as follows: 14% considered a return to the de facto borders before Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022 the most realistic scenario, compared with 16% previously. 4% expected Ukraine to liberate the entirety of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, down from 5%. 23% selected the restoration of Ukraine’s internationally recognized 1991 borders, including Crimea, compared with 25%. 12% envisaged Ukraine fully restoring its territorial integrity and transferring hostilities onto Russian territory, down from 14%. Another 6% were unable to select a scenario. The results point to a gradual shift toward more cautious expectations rather than showing what settlement Ukrainians would personally prefer or accept. Earlier polling found that most Ukrainians placed sovereignty and territorial integrity above economic prosperity. Different poll results can vary significantly depending on whether respondents are asked about their desired outcome, the most realistic outcome, or a detailed ceasefire proposal containing security guarantees. Other Topics of Interest Fresh Intelligence Signals Massive Russian Strike Ahead, Zelensky Says Ukraine is preparing countermeasures, but its supply of interceptors against ballistic missiles depends entirely on foreign partners, Zelensky said. Ceasefire support depends on conditions The same survey found that 75% of Ukrainians would allow negotiations with Russia to take place to end the war, while 21% opposed holding talks, and 4% were undecided. KIIS explicitly warned that willingness to conduct negotiations should not be interpreted as support for concessions to Moscow. Some 69% said they would support an immediate and complete ceasefire along the current line of contact if Ukraine did not legally recognize the occupied territories as Russian, continued strengthening its military, and maintained its course toward NATO and EU membership. Another 22% rejected that proposal, while 9% were undecided. KIIS noted that support drops when a ceasefire proposal lacks specific security guarantees. In a previous survey, only 32% accepted withdrawing Ukrainian forces from Donbas in exchange for what the institute described as abstract US and European guarantees. Most Ukrainians still believe in victory Despite increasingly cautious expectations about territorial liberation, 79% of respondents said they believed Ukraine would ultimately win the war. Of those, 47% were certain of victory and another 32% said Ukraine would probably win. Some 7% expected Russia to win, while 14% could not answer. Overall belief in Ukraine’s victory fell from 85% in late July and early August. The share expressing complete confidence declined more sharply, from 60% to 47%. A majority of respondents (62%) also said they were prepared to endure the war for as long as necessary. Another 4% were prepared to endure it for about one year, while 23% selected a shorter period ranging from several months to six months. How the poll was conducted KIIS interviewed 1,002 Ukrainian adults by telephone from Sept. 12-21 using randomly generated mobile numbers and statistical weighting. The poll covered residents of Ukrainian government-controlled territory, including internally displaced people from occupied regions. It did not include residents currently living under Russian occupation or Ukrainians who left the country after Feb. 24, 2022. Under normal conditions, the maximum statistical margin of error would be approximately 4.1 percentage points for results near 50%. KIIS cautioned that wartime conditions could create additional systematic distortions. Kyiv Post is Ukraine’s first and oldest English news organization, reporting since 1995. Its international reach – 97% of readers are outside of Ukraine – make it truly Ukraine’s global voice.