Four ways Trump will become more dangerous if he loses the midterms

With two days before the US midterm elections that decide control of Congress, Donald Trump’s opponents are praying for results that curb his powers. But the US President has shown a consistent ability to bypass checks and balances, and a wounded Trump could be more dangerous than ever, political analysts suggest. This week former US secretary of state and Trump’s one-time presidential rival Hillary Clinton warned that Trump would become “more unhinged” if he suffered massive losses in the Senate and the House. “What I think people need to be prepared for is he becomes even more unhinged and sadly more dangerous, because as I have mentioned before there’s a concept in behavioral psychology where people who are in what’s called the domain of loss, they double down on risk.” David Cay Johnston, a Pulitzer-winning investigative reporter and professor of journalism at the Rochester Institute of Technology, who has known Trump for decades and published several books about him, warns: “Donald is feral when cornered.” Bad results for Trump’s Republicans on 3 November could make the lame-duck period, usually a time of winding down for a president and transition for their party, his most chaotic yet. “Once Donald Trump loses control of either chamber of Congress, he will become very dangerous and is likely to do truly erratic and dangerous things,” said Johnston. Whatever the outcome in the House and the Senate, the President will retain broad power over the US armed forces, the ability to issue executive orders, and the motivation to target his enemies, he added.Trump will dive back into war Recent reports suggest a new US-Israeli assault on Iran is a case of when not if, with Trump hinting this could come after the midterms. The next campaign could be broader and bloodier, with Iran’s civilian energy facilities said to be likely targets, and the regime prepared to retaliate against the US and allies across the Gulf region. If escalation does not force Tehran to capitulate, Johnston fears that Trump could consider use of a nuclear weapon, as he has previously suggested with threats against Iran such as “a whole civilisation will die tonight, never to be brought back again”. US soldiers with the 14-tonne Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP) bomb, the heaviest conventional munition in the world, that was used in strikes on Iran in June 2025 (Photo: US Air Force/AP) The comments alarmed nuclear experts. A US President has total authority over nuclear weapons use. “It is not beyond reason that he will toy with the idea of actually using nuclear weapons,” said Johnston. “He said he would annihilate Iran… and he didn’t walk it back. The hope has to be that American military officers would not follow any order to use a nuclear weapon.” Trump himself has publicly ruled out using a nuclear weapon against Iran, suggesting he could instead deploy the 10-tonne GBU-43 bunker buster dubbed the ‘Mother of All Bombs’. Beyond Iran, Trump has led a new diplomatic push to end the Ukraine war on terms favourable to Russia, including through coercive action against Kyiv. A new analysis from the Brookings Institution think-tank predicts Trump will follow a pattern of “avoiding direct confrontation with other major powers, notably China and Russia” after the midterms, while throwing “punches in directions where he does not fear counterpunches”. That could be ominous for Ukraine, as well as potential targets in Latin America such as Cuba. Brookings experts also predict further attacks on fishermen in the region alleged to be drug traffickers without evidence and targeted in extrajudicial killings. Immigration crackdown could escalate Much of the Trump era has been defined by immigration, from his campaign speeches attacking Mexican “rapists” to violent ICE (Immigration and Customs Enforcement) raids across US cities. The issue is one of Trump’s stronger polling areas, at least from Republicans, as his ratings slide across the board, notes Dr Georgios Samaras, a US politics specialist at King’s College London, and he could still exercise powers on immigration even with Democrats holding one or both houses of Congress. Federal agents detain a protester following the fatal shooting of Alex Pretti by immigration officers on 24 January in Minneapolis (Photo: Kerem Yucel/AFP) “It is plausible he will focus on immigration because ICE is in his control, and federal tools can be used and shaped according to his own needs,” said Samaras. Republicans have strongly backed Trump’s immigration crackdowns, including theatrical flourishes such as night flights of Latin Americans to a notorious prison in El Salvador. Samaras predicts the President could go further in his lame-duck period by targeting other ethnic groups, suggesting this could serve as an effective distraction from cost of living issues arising from the Iran war. “You might have diesel prices going up, you might be paying more for groceries, but hey, Trump just tried to deport an elected congresswomen,” said Samaras, referring to the recent case of a raid on the house of Minnesota congresswoman Ilhan Omar. The professor further predicts that the President is likely to return to one of his most cherished projects before leaving office, the Mexico border wall. The immigration crackdown has cost Trump with Latino voters. He trailed Kamala Harris by just three points with the group in the 2024 presidential election, but a new poll found Republicans trail Democrats by 24 points among Latinos in the upcoming midterms. Persecution of opponents The Ilhan Omar case fits a pattern of Trump seeking to use the justice system against critics and enemies. Former national security adviser John Bolton and FBI Chief James Comey have also been targeted. A Democrat-controlled Congress could put the President under severe pressure, with plans to subpoena records on sensitive areas such as alleged self-enrichment schemes, and possible impeachment proceedings against Trump and cabinet members such as Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth. That could set the stage for retaliation, Samaras suggests. “I think the Democrats will start a crusade against him, with weekly subpoenas and investigations in the House. They will provoke him, and a provoked version of Trump might be even more unpredictable,” he said. FBI agents at the home of John Bolton, former national security adviser to President Trump, on 22 August 2025 in Bethesda, Maryland. (Photo: Andrew Harnik/Getty) The professor suggests this could take the form of arresting Democrats on politically motivated charges such as treason or sedition. “I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw arrests,” said Samaras, suggesting targets could include “politicians, activists, and people affiliated with the party”. Whether or not the charges stuck, they could be used to intimidate opponents. The President is likely to take further steps to ensure loyalty and purge potential subversives within government, Johnston believes. Hegseth has reportedly blocked promotions of military officers for ideological reasons, disproportionately affecting women and black service members, while State Department officials claim that only Trump voters are considered for senior diplomatic positions. “Unless Hegseth is forced out, he will continue to purge the military, the intelligence community, and the diplomatic corps,” said Johnston. Profiteering bonanza Trump has been accused of using the presidency to make money through numerous initiatives, from selling dinners at his Mar-a-Lago estate to launching cryptocurrencies. The New York Times calculated that he “used the office of the presidency to make at least $1.4bn (£1.05bn)” in the first year of his second term. Trump’s son Eric, asked about the family’s estimated $1bn (£748m) in crypto gains, said the true figure was “probably more”. Trump did not comment on the article but defended his deal-making in office in an interview with the same newspaper. “I found out that nobody cared. I’m allowed to,” he said, noting that he donated his presidential salary of $400,000 to charities. Eric and his brother Donald Jr have also earned windfalls, including through investments in defence firms that have been awarded multibillion-dollar government contracts. A spokesperson for the brothers told US network ABC that their “investment decisions are based solely on their independent business judgment and personal convictions and they do not seek to influence, direct, or participate in any government decision, procurement, award, regulatory action, or other governmental process.” Eric Trump (right) at a crypto conference in Dubai on 1 May 2025 (Photo: Giuseppe Cacace/AFP/Getty) Analysts expect that pattern to accelerate as the window closes on his term. “I think he will try to take that to the maximum,” said Kaivan Shroff, a US political commentator. “As we’ve seen, his sons and himself have really made a profit this term.” Shroff also expects Trump to “put his name on as many things as possible” in an effort to boost his brand, with the President seeking to personalise existing landmarks such as the Institute of Peace and the Kennedy Center, and christen new ones such as the legally contentious Trump Arch. Samaras predicts “significant numbers of pardons in the next two years” following allegations that people with criminal records have been able to buy presidential pardons. Analysts suggest the association with sleaze will continue to taint America’s highest office and broader political system long after Trump has gone.