Four scenarios that could play out after Israel’s election as Netanyahu tries to cling onto power

Israel appears headed for another impasse following Tuesday’s general election, with early counts leaving both prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu and opposition leader Gadi Eisenkot short of a governing majority.With roughly 85 per cent of votes counted by Wednesday afternoon, neither the incumbent’s right-wing religious bloc nor the broad coalition aligned behind Mr Eisenkot commanded the 61 seats required to form an administration in the 120-seat Knesset.Because key parties have ruled out working with one another on ideological or personal grounds, political analysts note that forming an administration will require at least one faction to reverse its campaign commitments. In the absence of an agreement, Israeli law mandates a return to the ballot box.Here are the four scenarios that could play out. Netanyahu has fallen short of a majority (Getty)The prospect of a national unity governmentIn theory, one route out of the stalemate could be a grand coalition between Netanyahu’s Likud and Mr Eisenkot’s centrist Yashar party.However, Mr Eisenkot campaigned explicitly on unseating the long-serving prime minister. Addressing supporters in Tel Aviv early on Wednesday, the former military chief of staff reiterated his demand for Mr Netanyahu to retire from public life, citing a breakdown of public trust.For Mr Netanyahu to attract centrist partners, he would likely need to cut ties with his far-right and ultra-Orthodox allies. Yet in his own post-election address at Likud headquarters, Mr Netanyahu praised his traditional coalition partners and called for the swift establishment of a “strong right-wing government”.Foreign policy developments could also alter domestic calculations. Prior to the vote, Israeli and US media outlets reported that Mr Netanyahu had discussed potential strikes on Iranian targets with the United States. Observers note that a wider regional military conflict could generate domestic pressure on both leaders to form an emergency administration.Gadi Eisenkot gestures as he addresses supporters at an election-night rally (AFP/Getty)An opposition alliance involving Arab partiesOn the current numbers, the opposition bloc’s sole numerical path to 61 seats would require the backing of Arab-majority factions.Arab parties emerged as one of the night’s most significant stories, buoyed by high voter turnout among Palestinian citizens of Israel. Preliminary projections indicate the parties could secure a combined 19 seats. The United Arab List (Ra’am) is on track for roughly seven seats, while the Joint List alliance is projected to win 12.Ra’am leader Mansour Abbas has expressed an openness to join an opposition-led coalition, while Joint List representatives have suggested offering outside legislative support to block a right-wing government.However, Mr Eisenkot and most Jewish opposition figures have repeatedly ruled out forming a cabinet dependent on Arab parties. The Democrats leader Yair Golan remains the only prominent Jewish faction head publicly advocating cooperation with Arab parliamentarians, though policy differences over Gaza and West Bank administration would pose severe challenges to such an arrangement.Mansour Abbas’s party Ra’am was buoyed by high turnout (AFP/Getty)Right-wing defections to NetanyahuA third scenario involves Mr Netanyahu convincing hawkish opposition figures to cross the floor and join his coalition.Attention has focused on former prime minister Naftali Bennett, who co-leads the Beyachad alliance, and Yisrael Beytenu leader Avigdor Lieberman. Both share conservative views with Likud on national defence and regional policy.However, both politicians campaigned directly on removing Mr Netanyahu from office. Furthermore, each has made the mandatory military conscription of ultra-Orthodox seminary students a core demand – a policy fiercely opposed by Mr Netanyahu’s long-standing ultra-Orthodox partners, Shas and United Torah Judaism.While analysts have raised the theoretical possibility of Mr Bennett and Mr Lieberman replacing the ultra-Orthodox parties inside a restructured right-wing government, early seat totals suggest that configuration would still fall short of 61 seats.The default path to a snap electionIf coalition negotiations fail to produce a viable government within statutory deadlines, the default legal procedure is the dissolution of parliament and the scheduling of fresh elections.Under Israeli basic law, an incumbent prime minister remains in office as head of an interim caretaker cabinet until a new government takes its oath.Electoral analysts suggest that Likud strategists may see tactical advantages in a rerun. They argue that record Arab voter turnout might prove difficult to sustain if high participation yields no influence, while smaller right-wing factions that missed the 3.25 per cent electoral threshold could face pressure to consolidate behind larger parties.Between 2019 and 2022, Israel held five consecutive national elections due to identical parliamentary arithmetic, a pattern observers warn could easily repeat itself if party leaders maintain their current red lines.