Florida State vs. SMU prediction, pick, odds, spread: Seminoles, Mustangs face off in crucial ACC opener

Kevin Jennings and SMU visit Tallahassee in a Week 1 game with major potential conference title implications Sep 5, 2026 at 4:13 pm ET • 2 min read Florida State gets a pivotal opportunity to get back on track with a marquee ACC opener against No. 19 SMU. The Seminoles looked lackluster in a 34-17 win over New Mexico State in Week 0, needing a late touchdown run from Ousmane Kromah to pull away. Three receivers posted at least 50 yards in the win. SMU has put together perhaps the most impressive transition to the power-conference level in history, posting a 14-2 ACC record and a playoff appearance in its first two seasons. Now, the Mustangs are regarded as the top conference contender to Miami. However, early road trips to Florida State and No. 24 Louisville will quickly reveal whether the Mustangs can return to the postseason. Greg Schiano on hot seat after Rutgers upset by UMass: Scarlet Knights struggling in coach's second stint Shehan Jeyarajah The Mustangs' 42-16 win over Florida State in 2024 marked a historic milestone for the program. SMU quarterback Kevin Jennings threw for three touchdowns in a breakout performance. However, Florida State has a major advantage after opening the season one week earlier. Florida State vs. SMU: Need to know Kromah's emergence: Rated the No. 3 running back in the Class of 2025, Kromah was a critical late flip for Mike Norvell's staff at Florida State. After flashing potential early, he looked the part of a bellcow during a strong performance against New Mexico State. The sophomore carried the ball 14 times for 115 yards and a touchdown, including a late score to put the game away. Kromah only touched the ball more than 10 times twice in 2025; his carries must increase. King of Dallas: SMU is going all in on fifth-year senior quarterback Kevin Jennings, including a major Heisman Trophy campaign. The Dallas native is set to rewrite the SMU record books after entering the season with more than 7,700 yards and 55 touchdowns to his name. Jennings suffered an early lower-body injury that limited his rushing last season; expect Jennings to lean on his mobility far more in Tallahassee. Major implications: Early season games are always important, but setting the tone early is critically important for both of these teams considering what's ahead. After SMU, Florida State travels to play No. 13 Alabama in Tuscaloosa, hosts ACC runner-up Virginia and then has road trips against No. 24 Louisville and No. 7 Miami, split only by an FCS matchup with Central Arkansas. SMU also played an FCS game against UC Davis, but then plays a road game against No. 24 Louisville, perhaps its toughest game of the first half. A bad performance on Monday could quickly spiral. How to watch Florida State vs. SMU live Date: Monday, Sept. 7 | Time: 7:30 p.m. ET Location: Doak Campbell Stadium -- Tallahassee, Florida TV: ESPN | Live stream: Fubo (Try for free) Florida State vs. SMU prediction, picks Florida State made real progress in 2025, and a return to form is on the table, even despite the poor showing in Week 0. Regardless, SMU will prove to be a brutal matchup for getting back on track. Kevin Jennings will cause trouble for a Seminoles secondary that struggled to get off the field against NMSU, and the Mustangs will better contain Kromah. SMU wins and stays in the ACC title race. Pick: SMU -3 SportsLine's proven computer model has simulated every Week 1 college football game 10,000 times. Visit SportsLine now to see the picks, all from the model that's on a 32-19 run on top-rated CFB money-line picks since the 2024 season.