‘Finally there’s hope’: UK weighs up opportunities and risks after Trump’s midterms disaster

Andy Burnham was having dinner at the Commonwealth summit in Antigua when the results of the US midterm elections started rolling in.UK government officials in the Caribbean with the prime minister scrolled through their phones with growing incredulity as the scale of the Republicans’ defeat became clear.“We knew it was going to be bad for Trump but it was historic result after historic result: Kansas, South Carolina, Texas,” one said. “We’ve been dealing with this constant anxiety over Trump’s erraticism and what he might do next for years. Finally, there’s a bit of hope.”As he faced the cameras the following morning, Burnham struggled to disguise his relief that the US president could be restrained.“I feel the world has an opportunity now to unite around the issue that is affecting us all and that’s the cost of living,” he said. “But I can’t get people’s cost of living pressures down until the conflict in the Middle East is resolved … I’ll be working for de-escalation, to make it very clear.”Democrats cheer during election night in Austin, Texas. Their party’s candidate, James Talarico, won his race in the state for a US Senate seat. Photograph: Mike Segar/ReutersBurnham will not be alone in urging restraint. The energy price shock and subsequent interest rate hikes caused by the US war on Iran have severely affected economies around the world.It is the main reason why this set of midterm elections – in which the Democrats took control of Congress – are the most consequential for the UK in decades, with the potential to have a greater impact at home than almost any domestic announcement.Earlier this month, the prime minister admitted his first budget had been “less radical than he had hoped”, with the global economic volatility forcing the government’s hand.But while the trajectory of the Iran conflict is the inevitable focus, it is not the only direct impact of the Republican rout on the UK. Trump’s potential approach to Russia and Ukraine, the threat of more tariffs and the wider political ripples of the “blue tsunami” are all being pored over at Westminster.While the US president’s domestic powers will be constrained, he still wields significant influence over foreign policy – and is likely to use it.“We’ve all learned over recent years that all of this lands on the desk of just one decision-maker in Washington. How he interprets these elections matters more than how they’re seen in any other global capital,” one UK government insider said.Yet there are expectations that Trump could still be curtailed by a Democratic-run Congress trying to push the party’s domestic agenda while also holding the Trump court to account and using up all his spare bandwidth.“Congress probably will become a thorn in the president’s side, so he may become distracted by those issues rather than international ones,” said Sarah Elliott, the director of the special relationship unit at the Prosperity Institute.David Miliband, a former UK foreign secretary now based in New York, said: “There is a chance that the cross-party congressional majority to support Ukraine finds its voice and leverage. I hope so.“Maybe the impact of tariffs on prices will prompt a second look. But the presidency remains ‘imperial’ in foreign policy, so there are no guarantees.”Ed Miliband and Andy Burnham try their hand at steelpans while attending a Commonwealth summit in Antigua. Photograph: Simon Dawson/No 10 Downing StreetKim Darroch, the UK’s man in Washington the last time Trump was in office, said the president still had the ability to wreak chaos on the world stage.“You can’t formally declare war without congressional approval but you can engage in conflict. He can impose tariffs and insult allies and cosy up to dictators. All of that is still open to Trump,” he said.“My instinct is that he’s held his views about the uselessness of allies, the value of tariffs, the world being about bigger powers for decades. He’s not going to change his mind now.”However, over the past few days, the mood music in Washington toward Iran already appears to have shifted. There is hope in diplomatic circles that the midterms have strengthened the resolve in Washington for a negotiated conclusion to the war.Miliband said: “I would guess that the odds on renewed assault on Iran have lengthened, and the pressure for resolution will be strengthened.”Others, however, are more cautious, warning that Trump, who appeared to agree with JD Vance’s post-result assessment that the war was to blame, had a record of unpredictability.Emily Thornberry, the chair of the Commons foreign affairs committee, said: “Equally likely – and that’s the problem – is that he might use his three aircraft carriers and his buildup of troops in the Gulf and just decide he’s going to invade. Honestly, we don’t know.”Lord Darroch said: “Trump could go for one last massive attack, particularly focusing on blowing up nuclear sites. Then he could walk away and be able to say it’s been obliterated – again.”skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionAn anti-Trump billboard in Tehran. The senior Labour MP Emily Thornberry says Democrats will feel they have a mandate to end the fighting with Iran. Photograph: Morteza Nikoubazl/NurPhoto/ShutterstockUK ministers are, however, cautiously optimistic. The markets appear to be as well – with oil prices dropping sharply after the results.“We know all the risks. We know he could change his mind on Iran again, that he could strike a deal with Putin that locks out Ukraine, that he could announce more indiscriminate tariffs,” one minister said. “But we also see this as a moment of opportunity.”Thornberry highlighted the Democrats’ very different foreign policy agenda. “Let’s see what happens. I think they come in from January and believe that they’ve got a mandate to finish the Iranian war,” she said.“On top of that, they are much more sympathetic, as is the general public, to the plight of the Ukrainians and believe that the American president is not playing fair.”Labour figures are already building links in the new-look Congress, with some Democrats proposing a bill modelled on Labour’s approach to Israeli settlers in the West Bank.UK ministers say they have had no indications that Trump is planning more tariffs – though acknowledge they could be taken by surprise. “If the UK does something big on legislation or regulation surrounding big tech or AI, then you can imagine it happening,” one said.But some in UK policy circles argue that a Democrat-run Congress could help advance some of the UK’s international priorities, such as AI regulation or clean energy, both of which have been resisted by the Trump White House.Government sources said that while they would revive traditional links between Labour and the Democrats before the next presidential election, they were proceeding carefully.More than one cited the fact that Trump accused Labour of “interference” during the last presidential election after party staff volunteered for Kamala Harris’s campaign. “We need to be cautious – but also it’s entirely reasonable for us to engage with them,” a senior aide said.Ed Miliband, the foreign secretary, met Gavin Newsom, the California governor and a presidential hopeful, last year. But he also attended a college football game in Atlanta with his counterpart, Marco Rubio.Others inside Labour – including at cabinet level – already have close ties with Democratic allies. Party strategists will reflect on the midterm election tactics, with a view to adopting parts that could work against their opponents on the populist right.Labour MPs may be relieved that American voters have cast their verdict on Trump and his combative style of politics, with the US just the latest in a list of countries that have rejected rightwing populism at the ballot box.An activist holds up a sign that reads ‘Lame Duck Dictator’ in front of the White House in Washington DC. Trump’s Republican party lost control of the Senate and the House of Representatives. Photograph: Douliery Olivier/ABACA/ShutterstockBut party strategists warn against assuming Reform UK would necessarily suffer the same fate. “It’s all about the cost of living: unless we show that we have the answers voters could still look elsewhere,” one said.Republicans also deny the era is over. Elliott said: “As long as immigration is on the rise and there is poor assimilation of immigrants in western countries, rightwing populism will be a force in politics.”Senior Labour figures have cautioned against looking too celebratory over the results. “It wasn’t a ringing endorsement of the Dems, just like the last election here wasn’t about an outpouring of affection for Keir,” they said.“In both cases it was about giving the incumbent a kicking, and all of us progressives need to be careful not to take the wrong message from it.”UK officials insist it is business as usual as far as Trump is concerned. “It’s important we show respect for the fact that his administration has two years to go,” one said.Darroch cautioned British politicians against prematurely – or too overtly – focusing on Trump’s potential successors.“Burnham has to be careful he doesn’t appear to be moving on from Trump and dismissing him as a spent force,” he added. “He will be there until the end. Trump will not gallop gently into a golden sunset. He will rage against the weakening of his grip on power.”