Fears Mount of US and Iran Escalation After Sixth Day of Clashes

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Or sign-in if you have an account.1o7zkgb4q{h1fre(2990s9e9_media_dl_1.png Bloomberg(Bloomberg) — Concerns are growing that the US and Iran will intensify hostilities, with the sides clashing for a sixth straight day and Tehran refusing to back down over the Strait of Hormuz.THIS CONTENT IS RESERVED FOR SUBSCRIBERS ONLYSubscribe now to read the latest news in your city and across Canada.Exclusive articles from Barbara Shecter, Joe O'Connor, Gabriel Friedman, and others.Daily content from Financial Times, the world's leading global business publication.Unlimited online access to read articles from Financial Post, National Post and 15 news sites across Canada with one account.National Post ePaper, an electronic replica of the print edition to view on any device, share and comment on.Daily puzzles, including the New York Times Crossword.SUBSCRIBE TO UNLOCK MORE ARTICLESSubscribe now to read the latest news in your city and across Canada.Exclusive articles from Barbara Shecter, Joe O'Connor, Gabriel Friedman and others.Daily content from Financial Times, the world's leading global business publication.Unlimited online access to read articles from Financial Post, National Post and 15 news sites across Canada with one account.National Post ePaper, an electronic replica of the print edition to view on any device, share and comment on.Daily puzzles, including the New York Times Crossword.REGISTER / SIGN IN TO UNLOCK MORE ARTICLESCreate an account or sign in to continue with your reading experience.Access articles from across Canada with one account.Share your thoughts and join the conversation in the comments.Enjoy additional articles per month.Get email updates from your favourite authors.THIS ARTICLE IS FREE TO READ REGISTER TO UNLOCK.Create an account or sign in to continue with your reading experience.Access articles from across Canada with one accountShare your thoughts and join the conversation in the commentsEnjoy additional articles per monthGet email updates from your favourite authorsSign In or Create an AccountThe US hit southern Iran overnight, widening the scope of its targets by striking six road bridges, according to Iranian state media. There were separate reports of attacks on the southern town of Bushehr, which houses the country’s only nuclear power plant, and the western province of Lorestan.Iran responded by firing on US bases in Kuwait, Jordan and Bahrain — the three countries that have borne the brunt of the Islamic Republic’s counterstrikes since fighting picked up early last week — and on Oman’s As Salamah Archipelago, which sits on the strait. Get the latest headlines, breaking news and columns.By signing up you consent to receive the above newsletter from Postmedia Network Inc.A welcome email is on its way. If you don't see it, please check your junk folder.The next issue of Top Stories will soon be in your inbox.We encountered an issue signing you up. Please try againQatar, one of the main mediators between Washington and Tehran, said it intercepted incoming missiles.Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps claimed it attacked American forces in Syria, which would mark a first. There was no confirmation from the US.China and Pakistan expressed concern over the developments, calling on both the US and Iran to cease hostilities and resume dialogue.The latest round of fighting, triggered by Iran attacking tankers going through the Strait of Hormuz, is still far from the scale seen at the height of the war in March and early April. Then, the US and Israel were bombarding Iranian cities on a mass scale and Tehran was firing thousands of drones and missiles at Gulf Arab states and Israel.Yet with Iran continuing maritime attacks and insisting all ships seek its permission before sailing through the strait, there’s a good chance the US decides to increase its strikes, prompting a worse retaliation from Tehran, according to Mehran Kamrava, a professor of political science at Georgetown University in Qatar.The attacks are “an ominous sign of more to come, worse to come,” Kamrava told Bloomberg TV on Friday from Doha. “Neither side wants to see this escalation but both have become dependent on the path of an escalatory cycle from which they cannot back out. This tit-for-tat is now very dangerous in the sense of attacks and counter attacks on critical infrastructure.”The US military says its strikes, focusing largely on Iranian infrastructure such as radar, missile and drones sites, are designed to end Iran’s stranglehold over Hormuz and ease the transit of oil and liquefied natural gas tankers and other ships critical to the global economy. Iran says they’ve gone beyond military targets to hit civilian infrastructure. For now, the heightened tensions are making shippers more wary, and traffic through the waterway has slumped in the past 10 days.Beyond bombing Iran more often, the US is again blockading its ports and has scrapped a waiver for sanctions on its oil exports, both concessions made as part of an interim peace deal signed last month. Talks over Iran’s nuclear program, which were meant to be happening over a 60-day period following the agreement, have all but stopped.This advertisement has not loaded yet.This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below.US President Donald Trump has threatened to step up military operations until Iran relents on Hormuz.The Islamic Republic’s military has warned if he follows through on a pledge to hit more bridges and eventually energy sites, “everything that has remained intact so far due to Iran’s nobility will be smashed to pieces.”“Tehran sees the strait as critical leverage, and won’t give it up,” said Bloomberg Economics analysts Becca Wasser and Dina Esfandiary. “The US also won’t fold — it wants to ensure freedom of navigation and the continued flow of oil. That means more clashes and the prospect of a dangerous escalation spiral, even if both still want to avoid high-intensity war.”Analysts at Eurasia Group estimate there’s a 55% probability of an escalation in the next month — possibly involving the US hitting Iranian nuclear sites once again and Tehran pushing the Yemen-based Houthis to strike ships in the Red Sea.Crude oil prices were steady on Friday, with Brent at $84 at barrel, having gained 11% this week. Refined fuel has also jumped. US gasoline pump prices are almost back to $4 a gallon, a potential blow to Trump ahead of midterm elections in November. Dubai’s stock market is down the most this week since around mid-May.Commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has largely been limited in recent days to Iran-linked vessels using the northern route approved by Tehran, ship-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg show. Some other oil cargoes continue to cross without broadcasting their location, though in small numbers.Two supertankers carrying Saudi and Iraqi crude reappeared off Oman late Wednesday after going dark on tracking systems in the Persian Gulf over the weekend, indicating they likely completed the Hormuz passage earlier this week.The slowdown has pushed the seven-day moving average of crude oil flows, including Iranian supplies, through Wednesday down to about 5.5 million barrels a day, from around 9.4 million the previous week, according to Bloomberg calculations based on vessel-tracking data and information from Kpler and Vortexa.“Iran and the US are likely to maintain dialogue despite the flareup as both seek to strengthen their respective negotiating positions,” wrote Torbjorn Soltvedt, the main Middle East analyst at risk-intelligence company Verisk Maplecroft. “But given the standoff over shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, there is now a significant risk of escalation and renewed attacks on regional energy infrastructure. Pressure on international oil prices will continue to climb.”—With assistance from Shruthi Rajendran.Notice for the Postmedia NetworkThis website uses cookies to personalize your content (including ads), and allows us to analyze our traffic. Read more about cookies here. By continuing to use our site, you agree to our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy.