Farage’s unstoppable march to No10 has stalled despite Clacton win – and made Labour & Lib Dems pact much more likely

IT’S not easy to get 22,000 people out to vote in a mid-August by- election, especially when polling day is the hottest of the year. But Nigel Farage’s gamble that his Clacton base would rally behind him paid off. Farage’s unstoppable march to No10 has stalled despite Clacton win – and made Labour & Lib Dems pact much more likely Credit: Alamy Andy Burnham has put Labour narrowly ahead — winning back progressives from the Greens Credit: Getty Despite the strange circumstances, Farage got more votes than in 2024, showing he can still motivate his supporters to turn up, even when the stakes are low. In our Clacton focus groups, Farage’s supporters were unmoved by the undeclared £5million gift row. Some saw it as an establishment stitch-up, or no worse than what other politicians do. Sign up for The Sun newsletter Thank you! Maureen, a retiree, told us: “If someone offered me £5million, I’d take it.”But another number should worry Farage. Not the votes he received, but vote share. His 63 per cent was lower than expected, especially since the combined Conservative/Reform vote in Clacton in 2024 was 74 per cent. READ MORE ON NIGEL FARAGE That’s a warning many Tory voters still won’t rally behind Reform as the face of the right, even without a Conservative candidate on offer. Count Binface, meanwhile, won nearly 10,000 votes, or 27 per cent, six times higher than any comedy candidate in a parliamentary election. It is a reminder that Farage’s opponents, who do care about the £5million, are equally motivated to vote against him. By-elections are unique. It’s difficult to take national lessons from individual local votes. It’s even harder here because the main opposition is not normally wearing a dustbin on his head. Most read in The Sun The Liberal Democrats are easily the largest third party in British politics Credit: Getty Badenoch’s popularity has surged in recent months, now second only to Burnham Credit: Reuters Yet Clacton still offers us a glimpse of how much the political landscape has changed. Last summer, Reform was on the rise. Their weekly press conferences dominated the news, Farage had the highest approval rating of any party leader. Our MRP model — a tool for estimating the next election — put Reform within spitting distance of a majority in July. By autumn, it looked like Farage might be our next PM. What goes up can go down, though. Even before the terminally unpopular Keir Starmer left office, Reform started to dip. Embracing high-profile ex-Conservatives, such as Suella Braverman and Robert Jenrick, worried some that the party was becoming the Tories 2.0. Now Andy Burnham has put Labour narrowly ahead — winning back progressives from the Greens, who were disappointed by Starmer’s government. Reform won many seats in this year’s local elections coming through the middle of a divided Left. If the Left unites, that becomes much harder.Burnham still has work to do: He is closing the hole on his left flank, but his right remains exposed. He is losing more 2024 Labour voters to Reform than any other party. As we heard in Clacton, showing he’s serious about stopping Channel crossings and controlling immigration is non-negotiable for many voters. Reform should also be more worried about the Conservatives today. Farage’s approvals have declined from -10 to -27 Credit: Ray Collins HOW SEATS COULD LOOK Labour……………..228Reform……………..151Tories………………..130Lib Dems………..68SNP…………………..31Plaid………………..11Other……………..9Green…………….3 A year ago, Kemi Badenoch’s challenge was just getting heard. Now, it’s how to turn her growing fanbase into Tory voters. Badenoch’s popularity has surged in recent months, now second only to Burnham. Farage’s approvals, meanwhile, have declined from -10 to -27, leaving him as unpopular as Green leader Zack Polanski. But liking Kemi and voting Tory are not the same. Barely half of those who approve of Badenoch would actually vote Conservative. The Tory brand has further to go if they hope to take on Reform, but they are back on the pitch. So what does the electoral map look like? Our modelling suggests that Labour could double their seats from their worst projections last year — up from a projection of 100 seats to well over 200 as Burnham squashed Polanski’s Green wave. But still far from a majority. Meanwhile, the same projections show the Conservatives pulling back from the brink of extinction, coming within 20 seats of Reform, who are estimated to drop back behind Labour. Which brings us to the party not yet mentioned. Amid a four-way attention war between other party leaders, it is easy to forget that, by seats, the Liberal Democrats are easily the largest third party in British politics. Yet they could emerge as kingmakers, who would be unlikely to get into bed with either Reform or the Tories. That suggests an election tomorrow could lead to a left-leaning Labour-Liberal Democrat coalition. A pact on the right, meanwhile, looks unlikely as the war between Farage, Badenoch and Restore Britain’s Rupert Lowe becomes more brutal. Last year, Farage’s march on Downing Street looked unstoppable. A divided Right and united Left mean that a progressive coalition is now much more likely. Comment now