Far right sprints to verge of power in German postwar first

BERLIN (CN) — If Friedrich Merz, Germany’s historically unpopular chancellor, hasn’t seen enough brutal polling to understand the deep frustration with his government, September’s regional elections promise the loudest in a decade of wakeup calls for the country’s centrist parties.It’s looking increasingly likely that a far-right party will govern at the state level for the first time in German postwar history. The far-right Alternative for Germany, known by its German initials AfD, is poised to achieve dominant results in the eastern states of Saxony-Anhalt on Sept. 6, where it’s polling around 40%, and Mecklenburg-Vorpommen on Sept. 20.“A couple of months ago, I’d say no, it’s not possible. Now, I’m not really sure anymore, and many people are afraid this really could happen,” Carsten Koschmieder, political scientist at Berlin’s Freie Universität, told Courthouse News.If the AfD takes power, it would spark a wave of legal and institutional battles, signal a huge shift in the country’s global image and deepen the crisis of confidence for Merz, who once pledged to halve the AfD’s support.The rising rightThe AfD’s slow, steady rise means its prospects for governing have shifted from an impossibility to an inevitability. Germany has not solved the crises that have contributed to the far-right rise, including a stalled economy, a diminished role in global politics, crumbling infrastructure and struggles to integrate waves of refugees.According to Roger Stöcker, political scientist at Magdeburg’s Otto von Guericke University, AfD leading a government would “be a watershed moment.”“This would be a symbolic turning point and I’d say the end of the period German historians call the ‘Berlin Republic,’ which began with the fall of the Berlin Wall and Reunification,” he told Courthouse News.The moment has drawn nationwide attention to Saxony-Anhalt, one of Germany’s smaller states. Here, AfD candidate Ulrich Siegmund has emerged as one of the party’s most charismatic leaders. Pledges to step up “remigration”, ideologically overhaul education and defund independent public broadcasters look increasingly plausible.Far-right party AfD lead candidate Ulrich Siegmund visits an AfD information booth for the 2026 Saxony-Anhalt state election at the "Ostalgie Kantine" in Oschersleben, Germany, on Aug. 31, 2026. (Peter Gercke / DPA / dpa Picture-Alliance via AFP)Stöcker argues Saxony-Anhalt has proven particularly fertile for a challenge to the status quo. “There are whole regions facing large-scale depopulation, where compared to a couple decades ago there’s simply not much going on. This has contributed to a withdrawal of the state: If there aren’t enough people, schools shut down and doctors close their practices. People feel like the state has abandoned them, which has led to a fury which the AfD has been left to exploit,” he said.Out of the opposition?Various institutions are mulling how to deal with an AfD government. Social and cultural organizations are worried about potential funding cuts.“Like many other civil society organizations, LAMSA relies on state grant funding — we operate just like any other organization,” Undra Dressler, managing director at the advocacy group for immigrants in Saxony-Anhalt, told Courthouse News. She said the organization is looking for alternative funding for its education, language, jobs and antidiscrimination work in case the AfD wins.Annegret Laabs, director of the Kunstmuseum Magdeburg art museum, told Courthouse News Germany’s system of state-funded art institutions presents a challenge with the AfD.“It’s a highly authoritarian thought experiment. And we know that in authoritarian states like Hungary or Iran that artistic and cultural freedom is eroded,” she said. The AfD’s focus on “patriotic culture” has put Saxony-Anhalt institutions like the Bauhaus in Dessau, which the Nazis also targeted, under pressure. Laabs fears an AfD victory would set back culture.“From my own bubble, I know many artists left New York when Donald Trump was reelected. In general, artists always go to wherever they can find the most freedom, and it would be a detriment to Saxony-Anhalt if we experienced a similar phenomenon,” she said.Polling in Saxony-Anhalt is so tight that few observers are willing to make a prediction. The AfD will have the highest vote share, but if it’s enough to govern — and whether that’s independently or by trying to form a coalition — won’t be clear until election night.Multiple parties, including the Greens and populist BSW, are fighting to clear the 5% hurdle to enter Parliament. Who gets in will likely dictate if Siegmund takes power, or if democratic parties can form a coalition and prevent the AfD from ruling, at least for now.Fellow eastern state Mecklenburg-Vorpommen is in a similar situation, but the AfD is currently polling at about 36% and despite being the most popular party it is less likely to be able to govern.Elections in Berlin, also on Sept. 30, could deliver the capital its first ever Left Party mayor. Riding frustration with Christian Democrat Mayor Kai Wegner’s reign — a miniature version of the national governing centrist ‘grand coalition’ — Left Party candidate Elif Eralp is topping polls and would be the city’s first mayor in modern history with an immigrant background.The fallen firewall?The results of September’s elections will have widespread consequences for federal politics. Poor results from the Christian and Social Democrats will heap pressure onto national figures like Merz, whose government is holding on by a thread.An AfD victory would also reshape the national narrative around the far right and Germany’s long-established “firewall,” where mainstream parties refuse to cooperate with the AfD.Stöcker notes that if Siegmund is successful enough, his party can essentially “step over the firewall” and rule on its own. It will be a tough sell to sign on to a coalition and become the party to enable the far right’s return to power. But pundits across the spectrum are rethinking the firewall as AfD continues to gain momentum.Koschmieder noted conservatives already work with the AfD locally and in the European Parliament, but a direct governing partnership would potentially split the Christian Democrats.“If the Christian Democrats in Saxony-Anhalt actually formed a coalition with the AfD, the party at the federal level would explode. Half the party would want to leave, and there’d be a massive conflict between the state and national leadership of the party. It’s unlikely,” he said.The BSW, or Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance, formed in 2024, has signaled nationally the firewall is outmoded. The BSW could play a kingmaking role if it manages to enter Parliament.Regardless of whether the AfD attains power now, it’s likely only a matter of time until it finds a coalition partner and further normalizes its role in German politics. In the meantime, some in Saxony-Anhalt are bracing for the worst.“The mood (among the state’s immigrants) is very mixed. There are many people who say, ‘I worry about my safety and the safety of my children, and that is why I have decided to leave Saxony-Anhalt,’” said Dressler.Dressler, who maintains an AfD government is not a foregone conclusion, said she also hears many members of her organization saying, “Now, more than ever: I am not leaving; I am staying and fighting.”Courthouse News reporter Dave Braneck is based in Berlin, Germany.Subscribe to our free newslettersOur weekly newsletter Closing Arguments offers the latest about ongoing trials, major litigation and rulings in courthouses around the U.S. and the world, while the monthly Under the Lights dishes the legal dirt from Hollywood, sports, Big Tech and the arts.Additional Reads