Fantasy football Week 1 RB preview: Rhamondre Stevenson a surprise top-12 play, plus a forgotten low-end RB1

Heath Cummings breaks down Week 1 RBs, including D'Andre Swift, Tony Pollard and Jahmyr Gibbs, plus sleepers and waiver-wire targets Sep 8, 2026 at 3:57 pm ET • 3 min read Imagn Images Imagn Images Last year at this time, we were so excited to see the 2025 rookie running back class in action. What we did not expect was that Dylan Sampson and Jacory Croskey-Merritt would be the only backs to finish top 20 in Week 1. By the end of the year, Cam Skattebo, Omarian Hampton, and Ashton Jeanty all ranked top 20 on a per-game basis, but Jeanty was the only one of the three to play double-digit games. In other words, we didn't quite get what we were looking for. That hasn't exactly lowered our expectations. In my early Week 1 projections, all three of those backs are top 20, while Quinshon Judkins, Bhayshul Tuten, Crosket-Merritt, and RJ Harvey are all top 32. We are still counting on that 2025 class and if they disappoint again, the running back position is going to be much thinner than we think.Two of the biggest question marks heading into Week 1 also come from the 2025 class: TreVeyon Henderson and Kyle Monangai. As I wrote about in the Week 1 Projections Risers and Fallers, we started the week anticipating that both would be out this week. That would be a big boost to both D'Andre Swift and Rhamondre Stevenson. Swift has a good matchup and as of Tuesday morning, ranks as a top 12 back in our consensus rankings. Stevenson is in my top 12, but I am alone in that, so we should probably discuss it. The matchup is awful, let's get that out of the way. Seattle gave up the fourth fewest points (19.2 PPR FPPG) to running backs last season. But it is how they gave up those points that gave me hope. The 97 catches they allowed to running backs were the most in the NFL. Remember the Super Bowl when they held Stevenson to 23 yards rushing? He still scored 18.5 PPR Fantasy points because of his receiving work. In that game, he and Henderson combined for eight catches for 66 yards and a touchdown. If Henderson is out, Stevenson may just lead running backs in catches in Week 1. That matters a lot in full PPR, and is why he is my RB12 even after I lowered his efficiency projection because of the matchup. It's also worth noting that the Patriots have an implied total of 20.75 points this week despite scoring just 13 in the Super Bowl. Vegas is expecting a more competitive and higher-scoring game than the last matchup.Now let's get to the rest of the Week 1 RB Preview: Week 1 RB Preview RB Preview Numbers to know 47% -- Kenneth Walker played only 47% of the offensive snaps for Seattle last year. All indications out of Kansas City are that Walker will be a workhorse this year, which is why he projects as a top 12 back in Week 1.18 -- D'Andre Swift had seven games with at least 18 touches last year. He averaged 16.2 PPR Fantasy points per game in those contests. I project him for 21 touches if Monangai is out.28 -- The Jets gave up a league-high 28 touchdowns to running backs last season. If ever there was a matchup to get Tony Pollard off to a good start, this is it.53.7% -- Jacory Croskey-Merritt led all qualified running backs with a 53.7% rush success rate. If he gets just a small boost in the passing game, he could be a quality RB2.8.7 -- Breece Hall has averaged a very impressive 8.7 yards per catch for his career. Unfortunately, his target rate took a hit last year. Hopefully, Frank Reich recognizes his talent and involves him more in that area.0 -- Bucky Irving had zero carries inside the five-yard line last year. Hopefully, we'll get a glimpse of who has that role in Tampa in Week 1.7.3 -- Mike Washington averaged 7.3 yards per carry in the preseason. Was that enough to turn the Raiders backfield into more of a committee? Ashton Jeanty's managers hope not.18.4% -- De'Von Achane was third amongst running backs with an 18.3% target share. Malik Willis has not thrown to running backs much in his short stints as a starting quarterback. We'll be watching closely to see if that changes in Week 1.13.3% -- Over the past three seasons, the Chargers 13.3% running back target share ranks 31st. In the same span, Mike McDaniel's 22.6% RB target share was the fourth highest. RB Preview Waiver Wire Targets Projections powered by Sportsline Projections powered by Sportsline RB Preview Heath's Projections My full set of Week 1 Fantasy football projections for every position are now available here. Find out which of my favorite plays are projected to score higher than consensus rankings and which don't live up to their draft hype, at least in Week 1. Projected stats for all starting running backs will be updated throughout the week, so check back regularly.