Fantasy football Week 1 QB preview: Jaxson Dart not a must-start, Tyler Shough worth streaming

Heath Cummings ranks Jaxson Dart, Patrick Mahomes, Brock Purdy and Bo Nix outside his Week 1 top 12 and breaks down the best QB plays Sep 8, 2026 at 2:35 pm ET • 3 min read Welcome to Week 1. It's time to move from the wide lens of season-long and hyper-focus on one week's worth of games. As I wrote about in Week 1 Projections Risers and Fallers, that means that some guys we drafted as QB2s are going to be starting over some guys we drafted as QB1s. It may even mean that you should look to the waiver wire for a starter, though hopefully not. I don't want to completely recap that article here, but what you should know is that in our early Week 1 consensus rankings, Jaxson Dart, Brock Purdy, Bo Nix, and Patrick Mahomes are not top 12 quarterbacks. If you have one of them and no one else, I have some streamers below that may be better options for you.One thing I want to say about rankings, especially in Week 1, is that the gap probably isn't as big as it looks when you are just looking at a list. For example, Dak Prescott is my projected QB4 at 21.75 points, while Matthew Stafford is my QB10 at 21.03 in the projections. I have 14 QBs projected to score at least 20 points in a standard CBS league, and none of them are projected to score more than 23. In other words, don't be afraid to trust your gut if you have two QBs with similar projections. And maybe more importantly, check back throughout the week. These projections will change a lot before the first game on Wednesday night, and even more before the majority of games start on Sunday. While I mentioned Dart is not a top 12 QB for me, he is QB13, and he is one of the guys I am most interested to watch. Last year, he was QB4 from Week 4 through Week 10, averaging 25.8 FPPG, then he was QB18 in the final five weeks of the season, and didn't even average 18 FPPG. The Giants changed almost everything this offseason and the offense is a bit of a mystery with Matt Nagy in charge, but Greg Roman and Brian Callahan apparently have had input as well. It's possible this approach works, but those names don't exactly inspire confidence either. Dart has Malik Nabers back and the team added Isaiah Likely and Malachi Fields this offseason. Then there's the running, and just how much this new regime tries to pull back the reins on Dart's borderline reckless approach from last year. So yes, I will be very interested to watch the Giants offense on Sunday night against the Cowboys. Let's get to the rest of the preview: Week 1 QB Preview QB Preview Numbers to know 19 -- The Chiefs have not scored more than 19 points against the Broncos since January 1, 2023. Now they are facing them in Week 1 with a revamped offensive line that may be missing Josh Simmons. 36.8 -- The Cowboys have averaged 36.8 passes per game in the Brian Schottenheimer era. There has been some speculation that could come down with their improved defense. This is one to watch in Week 1 as they are favorites and that number matters a lot to Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, and George Pickens.7.2 -- Justin Herbert has averaged 7.2 yards per attempt for his career, which ranks 15th out of 23 QBs who have thrown at least 2,000 passes in the last seven seasons. We're expecting Mike McDaniel to improve on that.6.8 -- Malik Willis has averaged 6.8 rush attempts per game in his nine career starts. We'd like to see at least that many attempts in Week 1 against the Raiders.9 -- Bo Nix has scored nine rushing touchdowns in two seasons. His willingness to run coming off the ankle injury is a big question mark.14.6% -- Caleb Williams' 14.6% off target rate was the worst mark in the league amongst qualified QBs. If he has improved his accuracy, he could be an elite Fantasy QB.2.35 -- Last year, Tua Tagovailoa had the lowest time to pressure in the league at 2.35 seconds. If things aren't better with the Falcons, we could see a lot of dump-offs to Bijan Robinson and Kyle Pitts.1-11 -- Jacoby Brissett went 1-11 in his 12 starts last year. If he doesn't get off to a better start than that, we could see Carson Beck by midseason.3.1% -- Tyler Shough had a minuscule 3.1% TD rate in his rookie season. That's not uncommon for a rookie, but the QBs that make it in the league often progress in this area in Year 2. QB Preview Waiver Wire Targets Adds/Streamers (QB Preview)One To Stash (QB Preview) Projections powered by Sportsline Projections powered by Sportsline QB Preview Heath's projections My full set of Week 1 Fantasy football projections for every position is here. Find out which of my favorite plays are projected to score higher than consensus rankings and which don't live up to their draft hype, at least in Week 1. Projected stats for all starting quarterbacks are available and will be updated throughout the week as I make changes.