FanGraphs Power Rankings: Offseason 2027 (No. 1–15)

There was a spark in the hot stove yesterday when Emilio Pagán signed with the Tigers, but it’s still pretty early in the offseason and not too much has happened. On Monday, I examined how the early 2027 projections viewed the bottom 15 teams in baseball. Today, I’ll take a look at the clubs projected to finish with a .500-or-better record in 2027. The rankings below present each team as they are currently constructed, based on our Depth Charts playing time projections. This should give us a pretty good idea of which teams would be ready to compete if the 2027 season started today, and which ones have a lot of work ahead of them this offseason. Our power rankings use a modified Elo rating system. If you’re familiar with chess rankings, you’ll know that Elo is an elegant ranking format that measures teams’ relative strength and is very reactive to recent performance. For these offseason rankings, I’ve pulled the Depth Charts projections and calculated an implied Elo ranking for each team. Our projections are entirely powered by the 2027 Steamer projections right now; the ZiPS projections will be added later on in the offseason. The delta column in the full rankings below shows the change in ranking from the final regular season run of the power rankings. FanGraphs Power Rankings Rank Team Projected Record Implied ELO Projected Batter WAR Projected Pitcher WAR Δ 1 Dodgers 94-68 1539 27.8 24.2 2 2 Yankees 88-74 1523 29.5 17.8 3 3 Mariners 88-74 1522 27.4 19.0 21 4 Mets 87-75 1519 27.4 15.7 12 5 Brewers 87-75 1519 24.1 20.2 -4 6 Red Sox 87-75 1517 24.7 20.5 0 7 Pirates 85-77 1513 19.2 20.5 7 8 Phillies 85-77 1513 15.8 24.0 0 9 Rays 84-78 1509 23.1 17.1 -5 10 Braves 84-78 1508 22.4 17.3 -3 11 Guardians 83-79 1507 26.2 15.8 -2 12 Tigers 82-80 1504 26.7 13.6 10 13 Twins 81-81 1501 25.3 14.8 10 14 Cubs 81-81 1500 25.8 13.0 -4 15 Blue Jays 81-81 1500 23.5 16.6 2 16 Athletics 80-82 1498 25.9 12.5 12 17 Orioles 80-82 1497 25.4 12.8 -2 18 Rangers 80-82 1497 22.8 15.1 1 19 Nationals 80-82 1496 19.8 14.4 2 20 Marlins 79-83 1495 19.6 15.4 -2 21 Cardinals 79-83 1495 22.9 11.4 5 22 Astros 79-83 1495 26.9 11.6 -11 23 Giants 79-83 1495 20.0 13.1 4 24 Diamondbacks 79-83 1493 24.9 12.4 -11 25 White Sox 78-84 1490 24.4 13.1 -13 26 Padres 75-87 1483 22.0 11.4 -24 27 Royals 75-87 1480 25.1 9.7 -2 28 Angels 74-88 1478 18.8 11.6 1 29 Reds 73-89 1474 17.0 12.4 -9 30 Rockies 66-96 1455 13.2 7.9 0 … Tier 1 – The Dodgers Team Projected Record Implied ELO Projected Batter WAR Projected Pitcher WAR Dodgers 94-68 1539 27.8 24.2 Despite loading up on talent at the trade deadline and entering the postseason with a roster nearly at full health, the Dodgers still looked completely overmatched against the Brewers in the NLCS. Even though they failed to three-peat, they still have tons of talent on this roster, with a solid mix of veteran stars and promising youngsters. There are some lingering questions about how long some of those older players will be able to stave off Father Time and whether or not Shohei Ohtani can juggle performing as a two-way player without his body breaking down like it did this past summer. Still, make no mistake, this is the best constructed ballclub entering the offseason. As is, Los Angeles is built to make another deep run into the playoffs next year. Tier 2 – Ready to Compete Team Projected Record Implied ELO Projected Batter WAR Projected Pitcher WAR Yankees 88-74 1523 29.5 17.8 Brewers 87-75 1519 24.1 20.2 Red Sox 87-75 1517 24.7 20.5 It turns out the Yankees couldn’t manage without Aaron Judge, ultimately falling short of the Rays in both the AL East and the ALDS. The good news is that the team has assembled one of the best pitching staffs in the American League, with three genuine aces leading the group. And while the lineup revolves around Judge and a few other veteran stars, the Yankees have a core of youngsters who should only be getting better. Ben Rice, an All-Star who ranked fifth in the majors with a 149 wRC+ in 2026, leads that cohort, and George Lombard Jr. and Spencer Jones both made impressive debuts this year. Now, the task is to continue bolstering the supporting cast around Judge so that his health isn’t so critical to the team’s success.You Aren't a FanGraphs MemberIt looks like you aren't yet a FanGraphs Member (or aren't logged in). We aren't mad, just disappointed. We get it. You want to read this article. But before we let you get back to it, we'd like to point out a few of the good reasons why you should become a Member. 1. Ad Free viewing! We won't bug you with this ad, or any other. 2. Unlimited articles! 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We hope you'll consider a Membership today, for yourself or as a gift! And we realize this has been an awfully long sales pitch, so we've also removed all the other ads in this article. We didn't want to overdo it. In case you didn't read all that, here's the short version. Membership includes:✓Ad-free browsing✓Unlimited FanGraphs & RotoGraphs articles✓Historical & platoon projections✓Leaderboard & player-page stat heatmaps✓One-click data exports✓Customizable player-page dashboards✓Dark & Classic site modes✓Weekly Members-only mailbag✓FanGraphs Walk-Off, your year in review✓Optional homepage photo removal✓Gift articles to non-Members✓Full postseason coverage The Brewers ran roughshod over every challenger on their way to their first World Series title in franchise history. They’ve accumulated the most regular-season wins in the majors over the last three seasons and they’ve done it with an extremely young and talented roster. And there are even more prospects knocking on the door. Milwaukee will have to figure out how to replace Jake Bauers’ surprisingly potent bat in the lineup if he leaves as a free agent, but it wouldn’t surprise me to see the team pluck some other journeyman out of nowhere and turn him into a key player next year. The Red Sox turned an absolutely scorching July and August into another playoff appearance. And just like last year, they were knocked out in the Wild Card Series by the Yankees. The foundation is pretty well established, but they need better health from key players like Roman Anthony and Garrett Crochet. Boston managed pretty well without them down the stretch, and it’s unclear how much of a difference the duo would’ve made in the club’s two postseason losses to New York, so complete was the defeat. But if those two are healthy, this roster looks all the more dangerous. Adding another starter to replace free agent Sonny Gray should be a priority, along with reinforcing the offense with some depth or upgrading over Trevor Story at shortstop in the event that top prospect Franklin Arias isn’t ready to take the reins, but most of this roster seems pretty set. Tier 3 – Big Bounceback Candidates Team Projected Record Implied ELO Projected Batter WAR Projected Pitcher WAR Mariners 88-74 1522 27.4 19.0 Mets 87-75 1519 27.4 15.7 The Mariners suffered through the most disappointing season this year. Nothing at all went their way — injuries, underperformance, and a lack of urgency all combined to cause their downfall — and they failed to build off of their ALCS appearance from a year ago. Despite all that, the projections really like this roster. Cal Raleigh and Julio Rodríguez still anchor the lineup while the breakout of Emerson Hancock and the debut of Kade Anderson gives them a cavalcade of young starters to work with. Colt Emerson should capably take over for J.P. Crawford at shortstop, but the team definitely needs to replace the production of Randy Arozarena, who is a free agent, and then some. Maybe Seattle will finally deal from its surplus of pitching to bolster the offense. With a little more health, bounceback seasons from some of their key players, and a new voice in the dugout, the Mariners should be able to find their competitive spirit once again in 2027. Even though this year was a disaster for the Mets, they laid a stronger foundation for future success through that pain. Nolan McLean, Carson Benge, and A.J. Ewing all had fantastic rookie seasons to support the trio of stars the roster is built around. Some improved health from Juan Soto, Francisco Lindor, and Bo Bichette would definitely help next year, too. The top priority for this offseason is to improve the overall depth of the roster to avoid the pitfalls that derailed the team this year. The pitching staff in particular needs some help in both the rotation and the bullpen. There’s work to be done to push the Mets forward, but their core is much more solid than their 2026 record would indicate. Tier 4 – Contenders in Need Team Projected Record Implied ELO Projected Batter WAR Projected Pitcher WAR Pirates 85-77 1513 19.2 20.5 Phillies 85-77 1513 15.8 24.0 Rays 84-78 1509 23.1 17.1 Braves 84-78 1508 22.4 17.3 Guardians 83-79 1507 26.2 15.8 Even though they wound up sputtering down the stretch, the Pirates made a pretty big jump forward last year. And they did it despite an uneven season from Paul Skenes. It was the revamped offense that helped drive the team to its first winning season since 2018. A full season from Konnor Griffin should help cover for the potential loss of Brandon Lowe in free agency, though adding another bat or two definitely wouldn’t hurt. The pitching staff is super young with all the ups and downs that go along with acclimating to a full big league workload. With another season under their belts, perhaps Braxton Ashcraft and Bubba Chandler can find some more consistency in 2027. Along with a healthy Jared Jones and a bounceback from Skenes, this has the making of a very potent starting rotation. The Phillies limped into the postseason, but they made the Braves sweat through a tight three-game Wild Card Series before Atlanta knocked them out. Very soon, this roster will need an infusion of some young talent. Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper, and Trea Turner can only carry the lineup so far at their age — all three of them will be 34 in 2027 — and Zack Wheeler will be even older, at 37. And then there’s the matter of the outfield. With Harper returning to first base now that Luis Arraez is a free agent, the Phillies’ only projected everyday starting outfielder, per RosterResource, is Bryan De La Cruz, who at age 29 logged more plate appearances with Triple-A Lehigh than he did with Philadelphia in 2026. Otherwise, this is an outfield of strong-side platoons, in Brandon Marsh and Justin Crawford, yet Crawford is probably most valuable as a fourth outfielder and Marsh is stretched thin in center. The Phillies should sign either Seiya Suzuki or Randy Arozarena to fill one of their corner outfield spots, but even then, they’ll need an everyday center fielder. The good news is their best option might already be on the roster — that is, if they can convince Turner to move off shortstop and into center field. In a year where many thought they’d be an afterthought in the hyper-competitive AL East, the Rays were the best team in the AL and made it to the World Series for the third time in franchise history. Unfortunately, the guys tasked with carrying the offense — Junior Caminero and Yandy Díaz — forgot to show up for the Fall Classic. The team will need to figure out how to add some more impact to the lineup to alleviate some pressure on Caminero, Díaz, and Jonathan Aranda. Tampa Bay always finds a way to dig up pitching depth, and Ryan Pepiot and Shane McClanahan should be healthy to start next year, but adding another veteran arm or two to the rotation would definitely help. It’s a solid roster as it stands since so much of it is carrying over from this year, but there are a few moves that would help push the Rays over the top. The Braves suffered through an agonizing amount of pitching injuries last year and still won their division. There are still plenty of questions about some of those arms, however. Will Spencer Strider ever regain his elite form? What can the team expect from Spencer Schwellenbach, Reynaldo López, and Hurston Waldrep? Chris Sale continues to defy Father Time, but he won’t be able to forever. On the offensive side, the top of the lineup looks locked in, but there isn’t a shortstop on the roster and Atlanta can’t count on any production from Jurickson Profar after he missed the entire 2026 season for his second PED suspension. For a team with such a solidified core that’s played together for so long, there is a surprising amount of uncertainty surrounding its near-term future. The Guardians came so close to winning the pennant despite getting barely any production from a hobbled José Ramírez for the bulk of the regular season. It’s a testament to a supporting cast — Steven Kwan, Chase DeLauter, and Travis Bazzana — that looks stronger than it has in years. The pitching staff was such a strength down the stretch and in the postseason, but that group could use some reinforcements to provide some additional depth next year. A full season with Patrick Bailey behind the plate should help as well. Cleveland also needs to figure out what to do at first base; Kyle Manzardo was so bad this year that he was optioned to Triple-A on the day of the trade deadline, and Ralphy Velazquez, the organization’s no. 2 prospect, is knocking on the door. Tier 5 – Lots of Work to Do Team Projected Record Implied ELO Projected Batter WAR Projected Pitcher WAR Tigers 82-80 1504 26.7 13.6 Twins 81-81 1501 25.3 14.8 Cubs 81-81 1500 25.8 13.0 Blue Jays 81-81 1500 23.5 16.6 That the Tigers project to finish a hair above .500 without Tarik Skubal on their roster is a huge vote of confidence in the young core they’ve built. Kevin McGonigle just won AL Rookie of the Year, Max Clark had a very promising debut this summer, and Riley Greene and Dillon Dingler enjoyed fantastic production as well. There’s another wave of youngsters on their way up through the minor leagues, headlined by Zyhir Hope — the prize of the Skubal trade — and Bryce Rainer. The pitching staff needs a lot of attention, however. The midseason trades of Skubal and Casey Mize, and the pending departure of Jack Flaherty in free agency, leaves that group extremely thin and reliant on a number of unproven arms. Like the Tigers above, the Twins are projected to improve on their 77-85 record in 2027 thanks to an impressive group of prospects who debuted this year. Walker Jenkins, Kaelen Culpepper, Emmanuel Rodriguez, and Connor Prielipp form a talented core to build around, and there’s still plenty of solid veterans on the roster for support. Pablo López should be back sometime early next season after his Tommy John surgery, and the team has to hope that Byron Buxton’s lingering hip injury can be managed to keep him on the field as much as possible. There is a solid foundation in place in Minnesota, though there’s still work to be done to take this roster to the next level. The Cubs built a truly impressive position player group in 2026, ranking among the best teams in baseball in both offense and defense. The problem was the pitching staff. Injuries decimated that group throughout the year, and all the midseason acquisitions they made to push for the playoffs are now free agents. Their list of departing pitchers rivals that of the Padres; gone are Kevin Gausman, Shota Imanaga, Clay Holmes, David Peterson, and Matthew Boyd, among others. That leaves the Cubs in a tough position where they not only have to rebuild their pitching staff from scratch, they may also have to find replacements for Seiya Suzuki and Ian Happ in the outfield if they leave in free agency. The first priority for the Blue Jays is to figure out the cause of Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s baffling power outage. Without him anchoring the lineup, the team looked punchless. And with George Springer possibly departing in free agency, Toronto probably needs to acquire another bat or two to beef up the offense. Luckily, the pitching staff looks like it’s in pretty good shape thanks to the savvy foresight to bring in José Soriano in a midseason trade with the Angels. Adding another veteran arm to provide a little more depth wouldn’t hurt, but bolstering the offense is a much greater priority.