FanGraphs Power Rankings: August 17–23

It was a wild week across baseball, with walk-offs, blowouts, and a playoff picture in the American League that’s still incredibly crowded. With one week left in August, there’s not much time left for those teams on the fringe of the AL Wild Card race to make a move. Our power rankings use a modified Elo rating system. If you’re familiar with chess rankings, you’ll know that Elo is an elegant ranking format that measures teams’ relative strength and is very reactive to recent performance. To avoid overweighting recent results during the season, we weigh each team’s raw Elo rank using our coin flip playoff odds (specifically, we regress the playoff odds by 50% and weigh those against the raw Elo ranking, increasing in weight as the season progresses to a maximum of 25%). The weighted Elo ranks are then displayed as “Power Score” in the tables below. As the best and worst teams sort themselves out between now and October, they’ll filter to the top and bottom of the rankings, while the exercise remains reactive to hot streaks and cold snaps. If you’re looking for a visual representation of the ups and downs of your team throughout the season, look no further than the brand new Power Rankings Board in the FanGraphs Lab. First up are the full rankings, presented in a sortable table. Below that, I’ve grouped the teams into tiers with comments on a handful of clubs. You’ll notice that the official ordinal rankings don’t always match the tiers — there are times where I take editorial liberties when grouping teams together — but generally, the ordering is consistent. One thing to note: The playoff odds listed in the tables below are our standard Depth Charts odds, not the coin flip odds that are used in the ranking formula. FanGraphs Power Rankings Rank Team W-L Hot/Cold Elo Opp Elo Playoff% Power Score Δ 1 BOS 71-59 — 1579 1500 98.3% 1610 4 2 MIL 81-50 — 1574 1495 100.0% 1609 -1 3 LAD 80-51 🔥 1569 1495 100.0% 1606 3 4 NYY 74-56 — 1554 1499 100.0% 1593 3 5 PHI 73-58 🔥 1567 1500 95.3% 1591 6 6 CHC 75-56 ❄️ 1553 1497 97.7% 1589 -4 7 TBR 77-53 ❄️ 1541 1486 100.0% 1583 -4 8 ATL 76-55 ❄️ 🛣️ 1531 1496 98.6% 1573 -4 9 SDP 71-60 — 1562 1506 68.9% 1564 0 10 CHW 68-62 🛣️ 1523 1503 73.5% 1554 -2 11 ARI 69-62 — 1531 1504 30.5% 1511 1 12 HOU 65-66 ❄️ ⛵ 1488 1485 46.4% 1493 -2 13 TOR 64-68 🛣️ 1525 1508 18.4% 1489 1 14 TEX 65-66 ⛵ 1476 1493 45.0% 1483 5 15 CLE 65-66 🔥 ⛵ 1481 1504 46.7% 1473 9 16 MIA 67-64 — 1508 1499 5.7% 1468 -1 17 BAL 63-68 🛣️ 1503 1506 12.3% 1466 -4 18 NYM 59-72 🔥 1512 1507 0.0% 1459 0 19 MIN 63-68 🛣️ 1482 1495 20.2% 1454 1 20 SEA 62-69 🔥 🛣️ 1483 1501 34.6% 1452 1 21 STL 66-66 — 1485 1505 2.2% 1442 -4 22 KCR 58-74 🔥 ⛵ 1484 1493 0.1% 1437 5 23 DET 61-69 ❄️ 1472 1492 4.6% 1434 -7 24 PIT 63-69 🛣️ 1477 1512 1.1% 1431 -2 25 CIN 62-69 — 1473 1503 0.0% 1428 -2 26 WSN 61-71 ❄️ 1433 1504 0.0% 1395 -1 27 LAA 52-79 ⛵ 1430 1497 0.0% 1394 2 28 SFG 52-78 ❄️ 1412 1504 0.0% 1380 0 29 COL 50-80 ❄️ 1406 1508 0.0% 1375 -3 30 ATH 51-80 ⛵ 1385 1504 0.0% 1357 0 🔥 Elo up >20 pts (last 10) | ❄️ Elo down >20 pts (last 10)🛣️ Avg opp Elo >1525 (last 10) | ⛵ Avg opp Elo <1475 (last 10) … Tier 1 – The Best of the Best Team Record Elo Opponent Elo Playoff Odds Power Score Red Sox 71-59 1579 1500 98.3% 1610 Brewers 81-50 1574 1495 100.0% 1609 Dodgers 80-51 1569 1495 100.0% 1606 The Red Sox bounced back from a bit of a rough patch to win five of six last week, and they’re about to get a big piece of their roster back soon, too. Roman Anthony began a rehab assignment last week and could be activated as soon as this weekend. Boston is set to face the Yankees four times in three days beginning on Friday in New York. It’s the last regular-season meeting between these two rivals, and the Red Sox enter this week just three games behind the Yankees in the AL East standings — and six games back from the division-leading Rays. You Aren't a FanGraphs Member It looks like you aren't yet a FanGraphs Member (or aren't logged in). We aren't mad, just disappointed. We get it. You want to read this article. But before we let you get back to it, we'd like to point out a few of the good reasons why you should become a Member. 1. Ad Free viewing! We won't bug you with this ad, or any other. 2. Unlimited articles! Non-Members only get to read 10 free articles a month. Members never get cut off. 3. Dark mode and Classic mode! 4. Custom player page dashboards! Choose the player cards you want, in the order you want them. 5. 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An uncharacteristically sloppy loss in the Little League Classic on Sunday shouldn’t diminish the Brewers’ spirits. They’re on pace to win 100 games for the first time in franchise history, just a year after setting a new franchise record with 97 wins. Milwaukee roughed up the Mariners for 22 runs on Tuesday, split the next two games against Seattle, and then won its first two matchups with the Braves before Sunday’s loss. The Cubs had been creeping closer to challenging for the NL Central lead earlier in the month, pulling as close as three games back after a Milwaukee loss on Friday, August 14, but the Brewers now lead the division by a comfortable six-game margin. Even though the Dodgers won all six games they played last week, their strong stretch came at a bit of a cost. Andy Pages fractured his hand when he was hit by a pitch in Friday’s game; he’ll probably miss the rest of the regular season, though a return for the postseason is certainly possible. The team also placed Edwin Díaz back on the IL, this time with a neck injury. It wasn’t all bad injury news, though. Tyler Glasnow is set to be activated off the IL on Tuesday, and Shohei Ohtani has progressed through his throwing program quickly enough that he might be pitching in games sometime this week, albeit in a reduced capacity to rebuild his stamina. Tier 2 – On the Cusp of Greatness Team Record Elo Opponent Elo Playoff Odds Power Score Yankees 74-56 1554 1499 100.0% 1593 Phillies 73-58 1567 1500 95.3% 1591 Cubs 75-56 1553 1497 97.7% 1589 The Yankees swept the Orioles and took two of three from the Blue Jays last week. Combined with the Rays’ recent struggles, New York has cut its deficit in the AL East to just three games. Cody Bellinger returned to the lineup on Sunday, hopefully giving that group a bit of boost down the stretch. The real reason why the Yankees have been playing so well despite their injury-depleted offense is their pitching staff, which has the best ERA in baseball by a pretty wide margin. Their pitchers have allowed more than five runs in a single game just once in August. The Phillies scored six runs with two outs in the bottom of the ninth inning on Sunday to flip a 4-0 deficit into a walk-off win, capped by a Kyle Schwarber home run. The victory was their ninth in a row, helping them close the gap in the NL East to just three games. Alec Bohm, who sat Sunday with some minor groin tightness, is slashing .378/.420/.527 (a 157 wRC+) this month. He’s led an offense that’s scored the most runs in the NL in August. The Phillies and Braves are set to meet seven times in a 10-game span beginning the Friday of Labor Day Weekend. If Philadelphia continues to put pressure on Atlanta until then, those seven games could decide the division. The Cubs had no shortage of dramatics last week. They had two walk-off victories against the White Sox to start the week and then lost the first two games of their series in Seattle in walk-off fashion. They left no room for doubt with a 19-2 win on Sunday. At the center of all the heroics was MVP-candidate Pete Crow-Armstrong, who blasted five home runs last week, including a leadoff bomb and walk-off blast in the same game on Monday. His partner in crime? Alex Bregman. The veteran third baseman hit three home runs in that series in Seattle and is running a 162 wRC+ since the All-Star break with 10 homers. Tier 3 – Solid Contenders Team Record Elo Opponent Elo Playoff Odds Power Score Rays 77-53 1541 1486 100.0% 1583 Braves 76-55 1531 1496 98.6% 1573 Padres 71-60 1562 1506 68.9% 1564 White Sox 68-62 1523 1503 73.5% 1554 Despite leading their respective divisions, the Rays and Braves suffered through a rough stretch last week. Atlanta was swept by the Twins, won a make-up game against the White Sox on Thursday, and then dropped two of three against the Brewers. The Braves couldn’t score more than four runs in any of their games, and have scored the fewest runs in the NL in August. As for the Rays, they just lost to the Orioles five times over the last 10 days with a series loss to the Blue Jays sandwiched in between. After a scorching June and July, Junior Caminero’s bat has cooled off considerably in August; he has a 109 wRC+ with five home runs this month. The Padres bounced back from a series loss to the Mets by sweeping the Twins this past weekend. San Diego is starting to create some daylight in the NL Wild Card race, pushing the gap ahead of the Diamondbacks to two games. Fernando Tatis Jr. had a pair of multi-homer games last week to go along with 10 hits; he’s up to a 200 wRC+ and nine home runs this month. It’s the pitching that’s been the real story for the Friars. They’re tied for the second-fewest runs allowed in the NL since the All-Star break, and they’re about to get some reinforcements. Joe Musgrove is on the verge of finally returning from his October 2024 Tommy John surgery, and Nick Pivetta has started a rehab assignment as well. Like the Cubs, the White Sox had a flair for the dramatic last week. First, there were the aforementioned walk-off losses to their crosstown rivals. Then, the Sox won a pair of walk-off victories against the Mets over the weekend. The South Siders enter this week 3.5 games ahead in the AL Central and have an opportunity to bury one of their division rivals over the next two weeks; they play the Twins six times over the next 13 games. Tier 4 – The NL Melee Team Record Elo Opponent Elo Playoff Odds Power Score Diamondbacks 69-62 1531 1504 30.5% 1511 Marlins 67-64 1508 1499 5.7% 1468 The last thing a team in the middle of a tight playoff race needs is one of its superstars going AWOL, but that’s exactly what happened with the Diamondbacks and Ketel Marte last week. The details of his surprise absence on Monday remain scarce — his whereabouts were much more widely known on Friday when he was spotted at a Phoenix-area casino, providing another off-field distraction for the team — but he’s currently on the IL with knee inflammation. Marte is clearly going through something right now, but whatever is going on, the Diamondbacks are without one of their best players at a critical moment in the season. I’m not sure the Marlins deserve to be in this tier, but they did just sweep the Nationals this past weekend to keep pace with the Padres in the NL Wild Card race. They’re just four games back and not entirely out of the running yet. Even if the Fish wind up falling short of a playoff berth, they’ve been playing great baseball over the last few months. The most encouraging development has been the growth of Eury Pérez; since coming off the IL in late June, he’s put up a 1.80 ERA and a 2.73 FIP across 11 starts. Tier 5 – The AL Melee Team Record Elo Opponent Elo Playoff Odds Power Score Astros 65-66 1488 1485 46.4% 1493 Blue Jays 64-68 1525 1508 18.4% 1489 Rangers 65-66 1476 1493 45.0% 1483 Guardians 65-66 1481 1504 46.7% 1473 Orioles 63-68 1503 1506 12.3% 1466 Twins 63-68 1482 1495 20.2% 1454 Mariners 62-69 1483 1501 34.6% 1452 The AL Wild Card standings continue to be a complete mess. At the end of play on Sunday, the Astros, Rangers, and Guardians were all tied with matching 65-66 records. Houston, which suddenly fired GM Dana Brown on Monday morning, is currently in first place in the dismal AL West because it holds the tiebreaker over Texas, which means the Rangers are tied with Cleveland for the final AL Wild Card spot. The Guardians happened to be the hottest team in the race last week, winning two of three against the Giants before sweeping the Rockies over the weekend. Jo Adell has given the Guards a much-needed power boost since coming over at the trade deadline; he collected nine hits, two home runs, and 12 RBI last week. The Blue Jays’ series loss to the Yankees this past weekend snapped a streak of seven series wins in a row. Still, this stretch of solid play has pushed Toronto back into the playoff picture. So much of the team’s struggles can be traced back to the underperformance of its stars. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. still hasn’t come around after limping through the first half of the season; he was just activated off the 7-day IL on Saturday. One guy who is finally heating up is Alejandro Kirk; he has posted a 189 wRC+ in August, making up for all the time he lost with a fractured finger earlier in the season. The Mariners went 3-3 last week but were outscored by 38 runs across those six games. The week started with a historic 22-0 blowout against the Brewers on Tuesday and ended with a 19-2 blowout against the Cubs on Sunday. In between, Kade Anderson made his much-anticipated major league debut, Seattle had back-to-back walk-off victories against the Cubs to start the weekend, and Randy Arozarena had the game of his life with a leadoff home run and a walk-off blast, plus a home run robbery, on Saturday. Seattle desperately needs to get its pitching staff in order; since the All-Star break, the Mariners have allowed the third-most runs in baseball, ahead of just the Athletics and the Rockies. Tier 6 – No Man’s Land Team Record Elo Opponent Elo Playoff Odds Power Score Mets 59-72 1512 1507 0.0% 1459 Cardinals 66-66 1485 1505 2.2% 1442 Royals 58-74 1484 1493 0.1% 1437 Tigers 61-69 1472 1492 4.6% 1434 Pirates 63-69 1477 1512 1.1% 1431 Reds 62-69 1473 1503 0.0% 1428 It’s far too late to matter, but the Mets have been playing some good baseball in August. They’re 12-8 on the month and 19-15 since the All-Star break. Bo Bichette is finally hitting like everyone expected him to; he’s got a 157 wRC+ and four home runs this month. Carson Benge has been even better, with a 172 wRC+ in August to go along with some dazzling plays in the field. While this late-season hot streak certainly won’t be enough to get the Mets back into the playoff picture, it does provide some hope that this year was just a temporary setback for the organization, and that brighter days are ahead in 2027. Tier 7 – Hope Deferred Team Record Elo Opponent Elo Playoff Odds Power Score Nationals 61-71 1433 1504 0.0% 1395 Angels 52-79 1430 1497 0.0% 1394 Giants 52-78 1412 1504 0.0% 1380 Rockies 50-80 1406 1508 0.0% 1375 Athletics 51-80 1385 1504 0.0% 1357 Since losing James Wood to an oblique injury on August 3, the Nationals have gone 6-12 without their superstar anchoring the lineup. CJ Abrams’s bat has also cooled off a bit in August, and he’s dealing with a midseason move to second base, as well as a minor ankle injury that’s forced him to miss Washington’s last four games. The Nats had fallen out of the playoff picture over the previous few weeks anyway, but this cold snap shows just how important Wood and Abrams are to the team’s success. Did you know the Angels have allowed the second-fewest runs in baseball since the All-Star break? They just went 3-3 against the Astros and Rangers last week, doing their part to throw a little chaos into the AL West standings. In fact, seven of their remaining 10 series are against teams in the middle of the playoff hunt. If you’re rooting for maximum chaos down the stretch, the Angels are the team to support.