Fact-Checking Putin: Is Russia Exporting More Crude by Choice or Out of Options?

The growing fuel crisis gripping Russia has caught up with Vladimir Putin even in the far eastern city of Vladivostok. Speaking Thursday before business circles who know all too well that his economic framing is far from the truth, the Russian leader attempted to mask a severe infrastructure crisis behind global market dynamics.JOIN US ON TELEGRAMFollow our coverage of the war on the @Kyivpost_official. Russian President Vladimir Putin argued Thursday that high global oil prices make exporting crude more profitable than refining it at home, while avoiding a direct answer on whether Russians should get used to recurring fuel shortages. “How much is it there now? $95, I think, per barrel of Brent. It’s more profitable to export crude oil than to process it domestically,” Putin said at the Eastern Economic Forum (EEF) in Vladivostok. Accurate on price, dishonest on the cause On the price, he was broadly right. Brent crude was trading around $95 a barrel Thursday. But his explanation was incomplete. High crude prices do not automatically make refining less attractive. European gasoline and diesel refining margins are also exceptionally high, while Russia operates a state subsidy mechanism designed to encourage companies to supply fuel domestically when exports are more profitable. More importantly, Russia’s own forecasts show that crude exports are rising partly because Ukrainian drone strikes have systematically reduced domestic refining capacity. More crude exports – because Ukraine left Russia no other choice Russia is simultaneously being forced to import more fuel to cover shortages at home. Other Topics of Interest All Four Moscow Airports Hit by Flight Delays, Cancellations for Second Night Moscow faced another overnight drone wave as repeated airport shutdowns rippled into St. Petersburg and regional aviation networks. By late August, gasoline production had fallen to around 80,000 tons per day against estimated demand of 115,000 tons – enough to cover only about 70% of consumption. Imports from Belarus and Asia, combined with export restrictions, improved immediate supplies but still left the market short of full demand. Putin tried to reassure the business crowd that refinery repairs were progressing rapidly, claiming only about 10% of restoration work remained. Putin’s own defense exposed the contradiction: Russia is not simply exporting more crude for profit, but scrambling to restore a fuel system battered by Ukrainian drone strikes. Should Russians adapt to the new reality? But when the moderator asked directly whether Russians should get used to systematic fuel shortages, Putin did not clearly say no. Instead, he shifted to security, saying Russia needed stronger air defenses and retaliatory strikes against Ukraine. Pressed again on whether Russians should expect regular shortages, Putin said Russia “must be prepared for anything.” The exchange stood out because Putin had already made a rare admission that Moscow misjudged the vulnerability of its energy infrastructure. “We assumed that these were purely civilian facilities and could not be targets of any kind of attacks even amid an armed conflict,” he said. “But in this regard, we were mistaken.” Ukraine’s strikes change the math For months, the Kremlin dismissed Ukraine’s long-range strikes as public-relations stunts. Putin’s admissions in Vladivostok now tell a different story. Kyiv’s campaign is hitting more than refineries – it is striking at the economics behind Russia’s war, turning the very commodity meant to bankroll Moscow’s aggression into a domestic vulnerability. As smoke continues to rise over Russian energy hubs and the Russian leadership tells its own citizens to “be prepared for anything,” the message from Ukraine is clear: the war Putin unleashed will no longer be fought on Russia’s terms. Sevinj Osmanqizi is an experienced journalist who writes extensively for Kyiv Post on foreign policy, international security and geopolitics. Based in Washington, D.C., her work focuses on Ukraine, Russia’s war and the broader post-Soviet space.