Everything you need to know about the US midterms – and the threat to Trump

On 3 November, voters from all over the United States will cast their ballots in the midterm elections, which could reshape Congress and make it harder for Donald Trump to pass policy. Thousands of candidates will appear on ballot papers as Americans elect representatives and officials at all levels of national and local government. While Trump’s name will not be among them, the midterms are viewed by many as a referendum on the US President, who will be a major influence on how many voters approach this year’s midterms. Whether they are weighing up issues of war and peace, migration or economics, Trump and his divisive second term will be high in voters’ minds in these historic elections. Who is voting, and what are they voting for? The midterms take place halfway through a four-year presidential term. Voting will take place in every part of the US, and citizens will have a range of options depending on where they live. All 435 seats in the House of Representatives, the lower house of Congress (similar to the UK House of Commons), will be up for grabs. The number of seats in each of the 50 states is determined by population, and representatives are elected every two years. Trump’s Republican Party currently holds the balance of power in the House with 219 seats (including one independent who caucuses with the GOP) to the Democrats’ 212, with four seats vacant. The Democrats need a net gain of three seats to take control of the House, and are favoured to win the majority – but the race is tight, with fewer seats genuinely contestable after recent redrawing of district lines. In the upper house of Congress, the Senate, each state has two representatives regardless of size, but only 35 of the 100 seats will be contested in this year’s elections, including two special elections to fill vacancies. The Republicans have a 53-47 majority (including two independents who caucus with Democrats). The Senate is on a knife edge, with the Democrats needing to net four seats. If they only gain three, creating a 50:50 tie, the sitting vice president – currently JD Vance – has the casting vote. The seats up for election this year are mostly in states that voted for Trump, giving Democrats a very narrow path towards winning control. Thirty-six states will also be electing governors, a role that has traditionally been a step towards the White House with several former governors becoming US president, including Ronald Reagan (California), Bill Clinton (Arkansas), and George W Bush (Texas). Thousands of “down ballot” elections will take place to choose local administrators and officials from mayors to sheriffs to state legislators. States also can use the elections to vote on contentious issues such as taxation, abortion rights and local government structures. Fewer Americans tend to vote in the midterms with turnout rates typically between 40 and 50 per cent compared with around 60 per cent in presidential contests. Which are the races and candidates to watch out for? In a deeply politically divided country, many of the elections will fall safely into the hands of the dominant local party. So all eyes will be on crucial battleground races that could tip the balance. These include Senate races in Michigan, Maine, Ohio and Texas. In Texas, Democrat James Talarico, a 37-year-old former teacher and church minister, takes on Ken Paxton, a Trump-approved Republican with a chequered political career serving as state attorney-general in the GOP stronghold. “Talarico has a kind of a new way of campaigning for the Democratic Party,” says David Andersen, associate professor in US politics at Durham University. “He wears his religion on his sleeve and has a different interpretation of Christianity from his Republican rival. And a Democrat winning in Texas would be big, big news.” Trump backed Paxton, 63, in a heated primary contest as he battled allegations of personal and financial misconduct. In contrast to his young rival, Paxton has “been plagued by as many scandals as Trump himself has”, says Andersen. In Michigan, Democrat Abdul El-Sayed, 41, could be America’s first Muslim senator. He has voiced support for progressive causes like universal healthcare and abolishing US Immigration and Customs Enforcement and has been a vocal critic of US foreign policy and Israel. Trump called the former public health official a “Communist loser” while he has received endorsements from leading left-wingers including Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders and New York congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. “Michigan is a big one for the Democrats, because the Democratic Party is always worried about whether it’s too far to the left and needs to come more to the centre,” said Andersen. But he believes the governor races are even more significant. “The governors are arguably the most important political actors in America. The presidency gets all the attention, and we talk a lot about Congress, but the governors are the ones who actually get things done for people in America.” Democratic ex-mayor of Atlanta Keisha Lance Bottoms is aiming to be the first black woman to lead Georgia while Republican Vivek Ramaswamy, who stood against Trump for the Republican presidential nomination, is running for Ohio governor. Ohio’s House race is also one to watch after the solidly Republican seat moved to toss-up following allegations of domestic abuse against GOP incumbent Max Miller. He denies the allegations and claims his wife has “significant mental health challenges”. Pennsylvania – with its mix of rural and urban areas that mirror the national landscape – is seen as a bellwether, and has the most toss-up races of any state, according to the nonpartisan Cook Political Report. Shorts What are the big issues for voters? “It’s the economy stupid” has for decades been the mantra of American political strategists when arguing what voters care about most. In 2026, it’s no different. Polling shows that the cost of living, taxation and the impact of the war with Iran are uppermost in voters’ minds as they head to the polls. “The cost of gas is a cliché for a reason,” says Peter Finn, lecturer in international relations at the University of Greenwich and head of the American Politics Group of UK academics. “The car has a particular place in the American psyche partly because of geography and partly because of the structure of the economy. People are thinking ‘in February, I was paying this much, but now it has shot up’ and as you’re filling up your tank every few days, you’re thinking of the impact it has on your ability to pay for other stuff,” Finn told The i Paper. The Trump effect Midterm elections usually go against sitting Presidents. Only four times since 1902 has the president’s party gained congressional seats in the midterms, with George W Bush the last to do so in 2002 after the 9/11 terrorist attacks. Trump’s polling shows an approval rating of -23 per cent, with 60 per cent of Americans disapproving of his performance in office. This is fairly typical for recent presidents, with support declining throughout their term in office. But Trump is especially divisive, with voters holding polarised views on him, casting a shadow over the elections – especially for his own party. “It’s really difficult for them because in order to be a Republican today you need to be a loyal Trump supporter,” says Andersen. “Trump keeps saying ‘the economy is great, inflation has been beaten, there is no cost-of-living crisis’ but his own supporters no longer believe him. “So, for Republican candidates they have to say ‘yes, Trump is absolutely right, I love Trump. I’m Trump all the way’ but also ‘he’s wrong, there is a cost-of-living crisis and I’m going to do something to change it.’” Finn believes “Trump will be a different factor in different ways in different places”, with most people doubling down on their existing views. An overwhelming 93 per cent of Democrats disapprove of Trump’s performance in office, and Finn believes this may motivate them to head to the polls to counter Trump-aligned candidates. But Finn also sees a third group which “would vote for Trump in a presidential election but when he’s not on the ballot they just might not bother.” Who is going to win and what will happen after the vote? If the balance of power in Congress shifts to the Democrats, Trump would become a “lame-duck” president and struggle to push through legislation. “If the Republicans hold the Senate and the Democrats take the House, you will probably get Democratic investigations into various different things Trump has done, and I would say there’s a good chance we’ll have at least one more impeachment attempt,” says Finn. Legislative powers would be limited, however. If the Democrats win both houses, Trump would face much more oversight and difficulty in passing policy. But this is not a typical president, and these elections may set off a new threat to American democracy. Trump’s rhetoric and actions have drawn widespread concerns about how he might seek to overrule the will of voters and challenge results he doesn’t like. “I think this midterm is going to be atypical because usually we have a narrative about how the President is likely to lose control of Congress, and how that’s going to destroy his legislative agenda and therefore nothing will get done for the next two years,” says Andersen. “But for the Trump administration, part of their purpose is to move away from needing legislation. I don’t think President Trump really cares about losing Congress. He’s not doing things to help his party win more congressional races, and I think he’s just preparing on election day to say, this election was fraudulent and potentially move to block newly elected members. It’s a very bizarre situation.” Finn puts it in stark terms. “If a democracy is to continue successfully, the losing party in elections has to accept the validity of the process. For democracy to work, you have to accept when you lose.”