Everything to know about the US midterms as Trump’s future hangs in the balance

American voters have the chance to make or break Donald Trump’s presidency on Tuesday, with midterm elections taking place across the United States. They will decide the makeup of the US Congress, with hundreds of seats being contested across the House of Representatives and the Senate. This will determine how easily Trump can pass his political agenda and how much scrutiny his administration faces. Elections will be also be held for state assemblies and governors, city mayors, councillors, officials and even judges. But the vote is often viewed as a de facto referendum on the sitting President – and it isn’t looking good for Trump. Shorts The midterm elections take place every two years, in the middle of a president’s four-year term of office. This year, all 435 members of the House will be elected for two-year terms. In the Senate, 35 of 100 seats are up for election, for six-year terms. In the House, Republicans currently hold 218 seats to the Democrats’ 214. There is one independent member and two vacancies. In the Senate, the Republicans have 53 seats compared with the Democrats’ 45 – although two independents caucus with the Democrats. Current polling suggests the Republicans are likely to lose the House of Representatives, and have a good chance of winning the Senate, with some suggestions these could be the worst midterm elections for any president, ever. Data-modelling site Race to the White House gives the Democrats a 94 per cent chance of taking the House and a 76 per cent chance of winning the Senate. An NBC News survey conducted in the final days of October found Democrats generally ahead by 52 per cent to 45 per cent across the country. Another poll found Democrats beating Republicans in nearly all of the seven battleground states that will determine who controls the Senate. This is largely down to the soaring cost of living, which has been exacerbated by Trump’s war with Iran, and consistently polls as the top issue for voters. Dr Jonny Hall, a US foreign policy lecturer at the London School of Economics, said the midterms were “traditionally seen as a kind of referendum for the first half of a presidential administration”, especially if one party has controlled the presidency, the Senate and the House of Representatives – as has been the case for the last two years. “The general pattern is very clear; incumbent governments tend to lose congressional seats in these elections,” Hall said. “As such, it is normally harder for presidential administrations to govern in the last two years of their term; congressional oversight may grow, and Congress, vitally, has the power of the purse which it can use to extract concessions.” What could the election mean for Trump? The midterms “are likely to signal the end of the second Trump presidency”, according to Professor Bill Durodie of the University of Bath. “It would mean that, for the remainder of his presidency, he would effectively be a lame-duck president, unable to pass his policies into action.” Greater Democratic power in Congress could make it “very painful for the President to push through their agenda”, and could trigger more investigations into potential corruption and abuse of power in the Trump administration, according to Natasha Lindstaedt, a professor of government at the University of Essex. With greater power in the House, the Democrats might also bring forward impeachment hearings focused on both the President and his cabinet officials. If the party takes the Senate, it could block any further nominations to the Supreme Court, America’s highest judicial authority, and other Trump appointees. David Andersen, associate professor of US politics at Durham University, said Trump had “never relied on Congress to enact his agenda, and instead has always preferred to rely upon executive actions” – but a united Congress might be able to block some of his policies. “We could see his tariffs rolled back, and the cuts to government agencies blocked,” Andersen suggested. “Democrats may also almost certainly attempt to stop Trump from his various development projects on federal land, such as the White House Ballroom and the Triumphal Arch.” A strong midterms showing will also help set up the Democrats for the next presidential election – especially with a large majority. “Within the House, any majority is sufficient to control the chamber, but if the Democrats’ majority stretches to 20 or 30 seats, this provides them the comfort of being able to allow members in competitive seats to break from party-line voting if it will help their future electoral chances,” Andersen said. However, the White House already appears to be preparing a Plan B. Trump has reportedly already made plans on how to govern with a minority government by focusing on policy areas that can be pursued without legislative approval, and he could well use the presidential veto for legislation of which he does not approve. Some analysts fear that a painful midterm result could make Trump more impulsive on the international stage, where the presidency has greater power. “The only area that Trump will be left with unfettered control is foreign policy, and that could be where he tries to establish a legacy,” Andersen said. A senior Ukrainian source told The i Paper that a bad election result “could make Trump more impatient” and that “a Ukraine deal is among very few wins he can deliver on his own”. With the US President having already proven willing to entertain the Kremlin’s maximalist peace demands, and considering his continued hostility to the Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelensky, the source feared that Trump could force Kyiv into a peace deal in which it loses land or security. Trump has also threatened to resume attacks on Iran, saying this week that he would use a “hammer” on Tehran. Some reports have suggested this could go as far as a nuclear strike, with right-wing US media personality Tucker Carlson claiming that Israel was putting pressure on the White House to consider using nuclear weapons. Trump denied this month that he would use nuclear weapons against Iran, but said he was considering using a devastating conventional weapon, the GBU-43/B Massive Ordnance Air Blast bomb, known as the MOAB, or “mother of all bombs”, against Iranian nuclear sites. Races to watch Some of the most revealing political battles have been taking place in the contest for the Senate, Andersen said, with Republicans “in tight races in places that they should not be” throughout the Midwest, including in Iowa, Kansas, and Nebraska, where Republicans would normally enjoy double-digit leads. “If the polls are correct, Republicans could be in for a shocking and historic loss,” Andersen said. “Even if the polls are wrong and Republicans do better than expected, they are still likely to have a very bad night. The best hopes for the GOP [Republican Party] right now seem to be that they might be able to win some close races and maintain a 50-50 split in the Senate, with Vice President [JD] Vance serving as the tiebreaker.” Michigan and Texas are two key states to watch, according to Lindstaedt. “A win for the Democrats in Michigan will show the Democrats that a progressive [Abdul El-Sayed] can win, and a win in Texas would show the breadth of the Democratic brand,” she said, but added: “Everything would need to go the Democrats’ way, because these races are all really tight.” But a resounding Democratic victory might not spell the end of the process. After Trump falsely claimed the 2020 presidential election had been rigged – a move that triggered his supporters to storm, smash and loot the US Capitol building in January 2021 – there are concerns that he may not accept a negative result. He could decide to declare a national emergency, seizing voting machines and electronic voting records from unspecified polling locations, claiming the move was justified because of alleged fraud, Lindstaedt said – though these moves would most likely be found unlawful in court. Trump and his Justice Department could also file lawsuits to try to prevent Republican losses, as he has done in Alaska – although this has now been tossed out by a judge – or encourage GOP candidates or other allies to file their own challenges. “This could lead to a lot of delays in certification and in getting the results, which will cause tension if the Blue Wave [a huge Democrat victory] is not as big as predicted,” Lindstaedt said. While Trump does not appear to be moving forward with some of his more extreme threats, such as sending troops to “secure the polls”, it is possible that he will urge his supporters not to accept an electoral loss, Andersen added. “This could lead to more violence, like what we saw on 6 January 2021,” Andersen said. “Given his weak approval ratings, and following on the heels of a potential Democratic landslide, this could make Trump the least popular president in history, and effectively prematurely end his ability to govern at all.”